Sunday, July 3

Miami Open Day Three Tips: Nakashima value for revenge win

Rinderknech picks up a day two winner

Arthur Rinderknech got the better of Laslo Djere in straight sets yesterday to continue our winning run in Miami, and our next-best, Alexei Popyrin, also got revenge for his loss to Lorenzo Musetti last week to win at an underdog price around 2.506/4 as well.

With the event now having completed round one, the seeded players begin their tournaments having received first-round byes, and there’s action from the bottom half of the draw today which includes Andrey Rublev, Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev.

Rublev facing tricky test from Kyrgios

Rublev has what could be a very tricky match in prospect against Nick Kyrgios, as his 1.715/7 market price illustrates. While Kyrgios hasn’t competed much in the last couple of years, his best level is very high and this is evidently what is on the mind of the market today.

Sinner, too, hasn’t got an easy match against the talented Finn, Emil Ruusuvuori, although Sinner did win both of their hard court matches last year in straight sets, including at this venue in the fourth round.

As for Zverev, he’s up against Borna Coric who is pretty difficult to assess now having played just twice in the last 12 months after injury. A fully-fit Coric would be a tough test for the German, but the market thinks that this is far from a given and has chalked up Zverev at 1.21/5 – a price that is only for the bravest of punters.

Nakashima can get revenge for Indian Wells loss

There are a lot of mismatches on the card today so there’s not an abundance to talk about from a pre-match perspective, although I don’t mind Brandon Nakashima at 1.910/11 for his match with Frances Tiafoe.

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I think that Nakashima has much higher longer-term upside than his countryman, but also, more importantly, has better hard court data over the last 12 months. What I think is influencing the market here – perhaps too much – is that Tiafoe won their last meeting which was several weeks ago at Indian Wells.

That day, Tiafoe triumphed 6-4 6-4 with the main difference being Nakashima disappointing on Tiafoe’s second serve, but crucially, Nakashima was priced around the 1.608/13 mark.

There’s a big drift from that price to the current market line, and for me, this has pushed Nakashima into value territory.

In-form British duo meet in round two

In other matches, I’d expect Lorenzo Sonego to get through at the expense of the qualifier, Denis Kudla, but the market isn’t too out of line at 1.558/15, while Thanasi Kokkinakis, who picked up a winner for us on Wednesday, has a very solid chance as a slight underdog against Diego Schwartzman.

Finally, all-British clashes in Masters events are pretty rare but we do have one today as Jack Draper faces Cameron Norrie. Unsurprisingly, Norrie is the heavy favourite at 1.21/5 having impressed in recent tournaments and finding himself on the verge of the top 10, but wild card Draper has picked up a lot of wins himself as well of late.

The young Brit beat Gilles Simon in round one, and won back-to-back Challenger events in Forli indoors during February – he looks to be on something of an upward ability curve and it will be fascinating to see his level against the more experienced Norrie tonight.

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