Monday, June 27

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Sleepers and Longshot Picks

Joaquin Niemann admires a tee shot

Mar 23, 2022; Austin, Texas, USA; Joaquin Niemann tees off during the first round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports
  • The 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson from TPC Craig Ranch begins on Thursday (May 12th)
  • Joaquin Niemann ranks second in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green and fourth in scoring over the past 24 rounds
  • Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets

We returned to the winner’s circle last week after Max Homa cashed a 28-1 ticket for us, and we’ll look to keep the momentum going as the PGA Tour returns to Texas.

TPC Craig Ranch will play host to this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson, the final stop before next week’s PGA Championship. The course is just over 200 miles away from Tulsa, Oklahoma where the season’s second Major will be contested, and the close proximity has prompted plenty of big names to show up.

Masters champ Scottie Scheffler, as well as Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, and Xander Schauffele are among nine of the top-17 players in the world teeing it up this week, a list that includes Joaquin Niemann.

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Joaquin Niemann +3500 +330 +160
Talor Gooch +4500 +400 +190
Keith Mitchell +7500 +600 +270
Kurt Kitayama +15000 +1100 +500

Odds as of May 9th at DraftKings Sportsbook

TPC Craig Ranch was the second easiest course on Tour last season, producing a winning score of 25-under, with six players eclipsing 20-under par.

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The track features exceptionally wide fairways, large greens and minimal hazards, which is simply begging for players to apply a bomb and gouge strategy. That should suit Niemann, one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet, just fine and he’s the first target in our sleepers and longshots betting card.

Joaquin the Dream

Joaquin Niemann, a two-time winner on Tour, checks in with a +3500 price tag in the AT&T Byron Nelson betting odds. That seems awfully favorable given the course set-up, and his recent form.

Niemann ranks second in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green over the past 24 rounds, and fourth in scoring. He’s also sixth in ball striking over that stretch, while ranking 13th in strokes gained off the tee.

Another big indicator for success this week will be Par-5 scoring, a category Niemann also excels at. All four Par-5’s at TPC Craig Ranch are under 570 yards, while Niemann ranks 11th in Par-5 scoring over the last 24 rounds.

He comes in after a 12th place finish at the RBC Heritage where he gained strokes in every key metric, and has already produced three top-six finishes this season.

  • Pick: Joaquin Niemann to Win (+3500)

The Gooch Is Loose

There’s more value to be found a little further down the board with Talor Gooch at +4500. Gooch earned his first Tour victory earlier this season and has already posted four top-5’s and an additional four top-15’s during the 2021-22 campaign.

He ranks fifth in total strokes gained over the past 50 rounds, seventh in strokes gained approach and top-five in scoring. Gooch also checks in inside the top-20 in Par-5 scoring over the same time frame, and racked up 17 birdies and an eagle at TPC Craig Ranch last year.

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Pick: Taylor Gooch to Win (+4500), Top-10 Finish (+400)

Top 20 Value Picks

  1. Keith Mitchell (+270): We can’t talk about a course that sets up perfectly for bombers and not mention Keith Mitchell. The 30-year-old leads the field in strokes gained off the tee over the past 24 rounds, and also ranks inside the top-18 in total strokes gained, ball striking, tee-to-green play and scoring. He owns six top-20 results in his past nine measured events, and finished third at this tournament back in 2018.
  2. Kurt Kitayama (+500): If we’re looking at just recent form, no player is playing better from a statistical standpoint than Kitayama. He leads the field in total strokes gained, ball striking, strokes gained approach and scoring over the past eight rounds, while posting back-to-back top-15 finishes. He’s gained 18.5 strokes ball striking over his past two starts, making him a steal in the T20 market at +500, and a worthy longshot flier in the outright market at +15000.

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