Sunday, June 26

Belmont Stakes Best Bets: Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta Picks for 2022

Nest

“Nest,” with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard dominates the field to win the Ashland Stakes on opening day at Keeneland. April 8, 2022 Aj4t3055
  • Saturday’s Belmont Stakes provides a chance to look for the big score
  • Exotic vertical bets give handicappers an opportunity at large payouts
  • What strategy can we use on the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta in New York for our Belmont best bets?

Because Saturday’s Belmont Stakes field is only eight horses, that limits the possible number of combinations for exotic bets when making your Belmont best bets. Understanding horse racing bet types can help you decide what to wager when, and you always want a sound strategy.

Rich Strike won the Kentucky Derby leading to insane payouts. He earned backers $163.60 on a $2 win bet, while the $1 exacta cashed for more than two grand, and a fifty-cent trifecta paid $7,435.35. The ten-cent superfecta delivered $32,150.

At the Preakness Stakes, Early Voting’s $13.40 win price was nothing to sneeze at. An exacta that paid $12.90, tri that cashed for $33.25, or $16.29 super aren’t life-changing scores, but with a bunch of favorites involved are about what one should expect.

While we picked the wrong longshot to focus on, our tactics in Baltimore were right. So what Belmont longshots do we focus on this Saturday?

Unlike the potential Preakness field, which crumbled following the Kentucky Derby, the top Belmont horses are mostly intact three weeks later. The Belmont Stakes odds have not dramatically shifted. In other words, there has been ample time to identify a key horse.

Belmont Stakes Best Bets

While Belmont longshot picks are fun to make, good handicappers are able to distinguish between races where one horse towers over the field, others that have several reasonable options, and wide-open affairs. If you thought the Kentucky Derby was wide open, and focused your bet on Epicenter or Zandon, but used all other horses as a supplement, you may have won big. Winning the Derby trifecta probably required a ticket sort of like this —

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1) Epicenter over All others (19 horses) over All others (19 horses) — $180.50 for a fifty-cent bet
2) All over Epicenter over All — $180.50
3) All over All over Epicenter — $180.50

The total ticket cost $541.50. The return was better than 13 times that. Read on for how to bet on horse racing and our Belmont Stakes best bets.

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As for our Belmont picks, we feel that five horses are Belmont contenders, and three are pretenders to win. However, because Creative Minister (+600 or 6/1 in the fractional form we see frequently in horse racing) is running for the third time in five weeks, against fresher horses, we are choosing to downplay his chances. Mo Donegal (+250 or 5/2) in the current Belmont odds and We the People (+200 or 2/1) are reasonable, but their prices aren’t attractive. Rich Strike (+350 or 7/2) fits, but it feels like he should be more like +500 or +600, and is being overvalued based on a single race where the pace was to his liking.

That leaves us with Nest (+800 or 8/1) to focus on. She is trying to become just the third filly to beat the boys at the Belmont. Her trainer, Todd Pletcher, has won the Belmont three times. He also conditions Mo Donegal. He saddled Rags to Riches when she beat the boys in 2007.

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Just like the Preakness, which we thought would be more formful than the Derby, we aren’t going to be heavy-handed in our wagering. All over Nest may lose you money if one of the Belmont favorites wins. With a $150 budget, we want to make sure we do well if Nest hits the board, and do really well if she wins. If she wins and something wacky happens behind her, we want to be able to talk about our score for years.

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Belmont Stakes Exacta Picks

There are two horses we don’t like for our picks to win the Belmont. We question Creative Minister running so frequently, and don’t like the price on Rich Strike. That makes the exacta fairly straightforward.

  • $10 exacta Nest over Mo Donegal and We the People — $20
  • $10 exacta Mo Donegal and We the People over Nest — $20
  • Total Wager — $40

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If Nest finishes among the first two at a solid price, and one of the favorites completes the exacta, you hit for a reasonable number.

Belmont Stakes Trifecta Picks

We’re fishing a little bit for a price here, underneath. The strategy at the top of the ticket is unchanged. We’re betting more than the minimum, 50 cents because if we win the exacta and trifecta, but lose the superfecta, we want to make sure to secure a solid profit in the end for our Belmont Stakes best bets.

  • $1 trifecta Nest over Mo Donegal and We the People over All others (7 horses other than Nest) — $14
  • $1 trifecta Mo Donegal and We the People over Nest over All (7 horses other than Nest) — $14
  • Total Wager — $28

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This structure guarantees that if we hit the exacta, we cash the tri too. To a degree they are tandem bets.

Belmont Stakes Superfecta Picks

This is where you can have a massive score. Remember, correctly putting the first four finishers in order isn’t easy, and if there are favorites in the first couple of spots, the payout will reflect that. Our key remains Nest, and while we cap potential winnings, we save a lot of cash not using all in spots where we have a hard time dreaming up horses finishing.

  • A $0.10 superfecta Nest over Mo Donegal, We The People, Rich Strike, and Creative Minister over All (7 horses other than Nest) over All (7 horses other than Nest) — $19.60
  • A $0.10 superfecta Mo Donegal, We the People, Rich Strike and Creative Minister over Nest over All over All — $19.60
  • $0.10 superfecta Nest over All over Mo Donegal, We The People, Rich Strike, and Creative Minister over All — $19.60
  • $0.10 superfecta Mo Donegal, We the People, Rich Strike and Creative Minister over All over Nest over All — $19.60
  • Total Wager — $78.40
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If Nest wins you are in great shape. If she hits the board, all you need is a logical horse to win, and you likely cash. In order to make a ton of dough you need Nest to win and a screwball to finish second, or a favorite to win, then Nest, with back-to-back big prices to round out the super.

Belmont Stakes Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta Picks

We are trying to bridge the gap between being reasonable, handicapping what is realistic, and having a chance to catch a big one with our Belmont Stakes best bets. Nest is exactly the type of longshot that is viable. Perhaps we aren’t giving a few of the extreme longshots enough love, but if you play everyone, the price goes up, and unless they do something unexpected, your ROI goes down.

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