Best prop bets for Chiefs-Jaguars divisional round playoff game: Over/under picks for the Chiefs team total, Marvin Jones Jr., more


The top-seeded Chiefs play host to the fourth-seeded Jaguars to kick off the divisional round on Saturday afternoon (4:30 p.m. ET, NBC). Kansas City’s expected to return to its fifth-straight AFC Championship Game, currently priced as 8.5-point favorites with a high total of 53 points.

For bettors looking to find other ways to get action down on the game outside of betting into a sharp side and total market, we’ve navigated through the available prop markets DraftKings Sportsbook has to offer. We’ve found five actionable props to consider for Chiefs-Jaguars that’ll hopefully yield some profit.

Chiefs-Jaguars Best Prop Bets: Advice, picks, odds for divisional round playoff

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Chiefs team total OVER 31.5 points (+105)

Despite scoring 20 first-half points against Jacksonville in Week 10, the Chiefs managed to score just seven second-half points, failing to eclipse their 30.5 team total that day. Kansas City would have likely scored 31-plus points had they not committed three turnovers while also allowing Jacksonville to recover an onside kick on the game’s first play. While their team total’s been bet up from 30.5 to 31.5, we still think the league’s most efficient offense (0.179 EPA/play) scores 32-plus points as long as they’re able to limit self-inflicted mistakes this time around. Would you really want to be on the other end of this sweating out the Chiefs team total UNDER? Yes, it’s about betting numbers, not teams, but anything under 33.5 total points looks good to me.

MORE CHIEFS-JAGUARS:
Betting preview | DK lineup

Chiefs 1st half spread -6.5 (+100)

We’ll also back Kansas City on the first-half spread, expecting the Chiefs to come out firing on all cylinders for the home crowd. The Chiefs were profitable on the first-half spread this season, sporting a 9-7-1 first-half ATS record, and we think they get to 10-7-1 on the season with a seven-plus point lead on Saturday. Kansas City’s offense is too potent to slow down, entering wild-card weekend leading the league in EPA/play (0.179) and success rate (50.7 percent). It also doesn’t hurt that Jacksonville’s gotten off to slow starts in their past two games, as a couple of early three-and-outs could put them in an early hole.

Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 made field goals (-125)

With the Chiefs expected to score their fair share of points, we’ll bet up Butker to connect on at least two made field goals. Kansas City’s offense had its way against the Jaguars back in Week 10, putting up 486 total yards on offense on 7.8 yards per play. That day, Butker didn’t attempt a field goal but made all three extra points. Kansas City did have a costly red-zone turnover that cost Butker a field goal attempt and they also committed two other turnovers. The Chiefs’ offense still managed to put up almost 500 yards of total offense despite sporting a -3 turnover margin, and if they don’t commit three more turnovers than Jacksonville, they’ll likely have an even better offensive day. We’re also thinking Kansas City stalls out at least once in the red zone while calling on Butker to attempt another field goal right outside the red zone. 

Marvin Jones Jr. OVER 27.5 receiving yards (-115)

Since we’re rostering Jones Jr. in our DraftKings Showdown lineup, we like him to record at least 28 receiving yards. Jones Jr.’s logged a respectable 72 percent route participation to go along with a 19.6 percent target rate this season and has the chance to see six-plus targets as he did in Jacksonville’s wild-card game. The Jaguars are likely to be in a negative game script, resulting in Lawrence attempting a high number of pass attempts. With Christian Kirk and Evan Engram being two focal points the Chiefs’ defense wants to slow down, it could result in Jones Jr. garnering a handful of targets that’ll lead to 28-plus receiving yards.

Ronald Jones anytime TD (+500)

In Week 18, Jones played on a season-high 29 percent of snaps (17) logging 10 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown. With a 5-1 price tag to reach paydirt this week, we’ll take a flier on Andy Reid to throw Jones out there on the goal line as he did in Week 18. Fellow RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) was recently activated from injured reserve, and if he suits up it’s likely Jones is a healthy scratch. If that’s the case, this wager will void, so we can still sprinkle a little on Jones to join the scoring party on Saturday afternoon without having to worry about losing a bet on a player who doesn’t even log one snap.

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