The second-seeded Bills play host to the third-seeded Bengals in the divisional round of the playoffs on Sunday afternoon (3:00 p.m. ET, CBS). The Bills are favored by 5.5 points to advance to the AFC Championship, but by all accounts, this game seems like a tough one to bet in the traditional sense. If you don’t feel comfortable picking a side, we’re here to help you find some action with a few of our favorite player and game props.
We headed over to BetMGM and scoured their prop-betting offerings, finding an array of props that not only seem interesting and/or fun but also yield plenty of value to bettors. Here are the eight props we like the most, and why we think they will appeal to you as a viewer and make you some money as a bettor.
Bengals-Bills Best Prop Bets: Advice, picks, odds for divisional round playoff
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Bills OVER 27.5 total points (-110)
Talk about the lock of the century! The Bills have averaged 34 points per game over their past four contests, and they finished the regular season with the second-most total points despite an entire game getting canceled. Buffalo has exceeded 27 points in seven of its past nine games, and for what it’s worth, Cincinnati allowed the Bills to score on their first drive of the canceled game. Buffalo also scored the second-most home points in the NFL this season, averaging over 32 points per contest at Highmark Stadium. Smash the OVER here.
Other totals we like: Both teams score 20 or more points (-110); Total OVER 47.5 (-140)
Betting preview | DK lineup | FD lineup
Josh Allen OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-155)
Honestly, we’re surprised the set OVER for this prop isn’t 2.5 passing TDs at -110. Allen has thrown for at least two TDs in six of Buffalo’s past seven games, and he has 12 pass TDs total over the past four weeks. He always gets up in big games (12 TDs over his past three postseason games), and the last time he failed to throw for multiple scores in a playoff game was in January of 2021. If Tyler Huntley can notch two TDs through the air against these Bengals, Allen seems like a stone-cold lock to hit at least that amount.
Joe Burrow OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-145)
We’re getting a little better value out of Joey B’s TD prop, likely due to the fact that this game is in Buffalo. However, even in Orchard Park, we like the cool, calm, and collected Burrow to reach two pass TDs. Don’t be swayed to his UNDER based on his limited production over the past couple of weeks against Baltimore. For one, Baltimore’s D is better (or at least healthier) than the Bills’ unit, and it’s not as if Cincinnati had to air it out often to keep up with Baltimore’s low-powered offense. Expect much more passing volume from Cincy this week against the high-flying Bills, who ranked as the second-highest scoring team at home this season. Burrow passed for multiple TDs 11 times during the regular season, and he totaled 11 pass TDs between Weeks 13 and 16 (against the formidable defenses of New England, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Kansas City). We’ll be betting on both QBs to find the end zone through the air twice or more. It’s more fun that way!
Matt Milano OVER 8.5 tackles + assists (+105)
With increased passing volume comes increased tackle opportunities for defenders, and Milano has been one of the Bills’ defensive studs all season. The first-time All-Pro selection recorded 10 big stops last week in Buffalo’s tight win over Miami, and eight of them were solo tackles. He has logged eight or more tackles in five of the Bills’ past eight games, and we’re betting (with plus odds!) that he will best that number this weekend to help Sean McDermott’s squad advance to the AFC Championship game.
Ja’Marr Chase UNDER 84.5 receiving yards (-115)
At this point, every defense in the NFL recognizes Chase’s massive game-changing abilities. So, naturally, he sees plenty of double-coverage and safety support. As a result, the two-time Pro Bowler has averaged just 77.3 receiving yards over Cincinnati’s past four games. Chase’s 2021 fantasy football investors might be surprised to see that he has only exceeded 84 receiving yards in six of his 13 games this season. Need more persuasive support? The Bills have not surrendered 85-plus passing yards to a wide receiver since Dec. 17. Hit the UNDER here.
Dawson Knox anytime TD scorer (+200)
Knox has been a silent assassin over the past couple of months, and he’s currently riding a five-game TD streak. The Bengals have been pretty stout against TEs in the red zone, allowing just three scores to the position all season, but Knox has made some super-human TDs happen over this stretch. The value is there, as long as you make it a modest wager.