The AFC champion Chiefs face off against the NFC champion Eagles in Super Bowl 57 on Feb. 12 in Glendale, Arizona. For those interested in getting action down on the big game, we’ve searched through the endless player prop markets and focused on finding the best props for most marquee player in the game: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.
Below, we’ve detailed our five favorite Mahomes-centric props via DraftKings Sportsbook, breaking down whether he’ll complete at least 25 passes and whether he’ll win his second Super Bowl MVP, among others.
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Best Patrick Mahomes prop bets for Super Bowl 57
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes to have 300-plus passing yards (-110)
At -110 odds, we’ll bet on the two-time MVP to throw for at least 300 yards in the big game. Going against an elite Eagles pass defense that leads the league in drop-back EPA (-0.110) will be challenging, but time and time again Mahomes has proven he’s matchup-proof. Mahomes enters the Super Bowl leading all qualified QBs (minimum 320 plays) with a 0.295 EPA/play and 54-percent success rate, and he posted an elite 92.4 QBR against Philadelphia last season. Additionally, Mahomes has thrown for at least 300 yards in 11 games this season and should be even more efficient as a passer now that his right ankle will likely be as good as it’s been all postseason.
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Head-to-head passing props: Patrick Mahomes -0.5 pass TDs vs. Jalen Hurts (-120)
We’ll also back Mahomes to throw for at least one more passing TD than Jalen Hurts in the head-to-head passing markets. Yes, this prop is priced correctly so there isn’t a substantial edge, but we’re thinking the Eagles rely more on their ground game in the red-zone relative to the Chiefs, putting Mahomes in a better position to accumulate at least one more passing TD. Philadelphia led the league in rushing TDs (32) during the regular season while Mahomes threw for a league-leading 41 TD passes. At -120, we’ll gladly lay standard juice for Mahomes to rack up one more passing TD than Hurts, thinking Philadelphia’s running game does its thing in the red zone.
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Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 pass completions (-135)
With Mahomes’ ankle having time to heal up, we think his accuracy improves this week relative to the AFC championship game, resulting in him completing 25-plus passes. Despite playing with a bum ankle last week, Mahomes completed 29-of-43 passes, which is right in line with his completion percentage during the regular season (67 percent). He also had a few un-Mahomes-like incompletions that could be chalked up to his ankle, and with more stable footing next week, his accuracy is likely to improve. There’s also a chance the Chiefs play from behind in the second half, resulting in an even more pass-heavy game script that gives Mahomes a shot to complete at least 26 passes.
Patrick Mahomes exact pass TDs: Exactly 2 (+225)
Rather than lay -230 on Mahomes to throw for over 1.5 passing TDs, we’ll take a shot on him to throw for exactly two TDs at +225. We’re not expecting Mahomes to match his five-TD output in last year’s meeting against the Eagles, but a two-TD showing against a well-rounded Eagles defense seems plausible. We’re also baking in at least one rushing TD from the Chiefs offense, so chances are Mahomes ends the game with two passing TDs.
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Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl 57 MVP (+120)
With Kansas City’s moneyline currently sitting at +105 on DraftKings Sportsbook, we’ll bet Mahomes to take home MVP honors at +120, instead. There’s certainly a chance someone other than Mahomes wins MVP if the Chiefs emerge victorious, but in what’s likely to be a higher-scoring game (over/under at 50.5), Mahomes will need to showcase his elite skillset. Back in Super Bowl 54, many thought RB Damien Williams was most deserving of MVP honors with a 133-yard, two-TD effort, but Mahomes (26-of-42 passing, 286 yards, two TDs, two INTs) still walked away with the Pete Rozelle Trophy. We’re thinking the once and future MVP ultimately becomes a two-time Super Bowl MVP.