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Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury betting preview: Paul only a small favourite

Jake Paul has taken the combat sports world by storm over the past few years. The YouTube star has amassed a 6-0 professional boxing record and, by default, has become one of the biggest names involved in the sport – yet he has done it all while competing against fellow influencer types or older professional athletes from non-boxing backgrounds.

That changes this weekend when Paul takes on Tommy Fury, an 8-0 professional and the half-brother of heavyweight champion Tyson Fury, in the main event of a pay-per-view event taking place Sunday in Saudi Arabia. The cruiserweight bout is scheduled for eight rounds.

Paul, 26, has notably defeated a pair of former UFC champions – Anderson Silva and Tyron Woodley (twice) – in the past year and a half after beating a fellow influencer Ali Eson Gib, former NBA star Nate Robinson and former Bellator MMA champion Ben Askren in his first three boxing matches.

Paul and Fury were scheduled to meet in 2021 and again last year but neither fight came to fruition. The only other time Paul was scheduled to face a pro boxer was when Hasim Rahman Jr., was slated to replace Fury in August 2022, however Rahman ended up withdrawing from the matchup due to reported weight issues and the event was cancelled altogether.

There’s certainly an allure to the Fury name plus his unblemished record, but when you zoom in you can see that Fury’s record is rather misleading and perhaps not indicative of his skills relative to other professional cruiserweights.

The combined record of Fury’s eight opponents, several of whom were bona fide tomato cans, is just 24-176-5 with only two of his opponents posting above-.500 records.

“I’m going to teach Jake Paul a lesson,” Fury, who has been around the sport his entire life, said via the Associated Press. “I’m going to show him he can’t just pick up a pair of gloves and say, ‘I’m going to be a world champion.’”

The 23-year-old won his most recent fight on the undercard of his brother’s win over Dillian Whyte in April 2022. Fury beat Daniel Bocianski on points and sat him down once.

The pay-per-view event taking place at Diriyah Arena also features a WBC cruiserweight title fight between champ Ilunga Makabu and challenger Badou Jack.

“Tommy, I hope you’ve enjoyed these last few moments of your career,” Paul said in an Instagram video post earlier this week. “This is it. You’re gonna be retired from boxing after this. You’re gonna be disowned by your family.”

Paul attempted to up the stakes at a Thursday press conference by making an all or nothing bet offer where he’d agree to pay Fury twice what Fury was scheduled to make if Fury wins the bout, but if Paul wins then Fury would have to give up his entire fight purse.

Fury’s father, John Fury, agreed to the bet on his son’s behalf but we’ll have to wait to see how it all unfolds.

Speaking of wagers, here’s a closer look at some of the betting odds available for the main event:


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Jake Paul -167 | Tommy Fury +130 | Draw +900
Fight go the distance? Yes -123 | No -118
Over 6.5 rounds -160 | Under 6.5 rounds +114

This fight opened as a pick ‘em but the line has since moved in Paul’s direction. Paul has closed as the favourite in all six of his fights. This will be the first time since his first bout with Woodley that Paul is not at least a two-to-one moneyline favourite.

Fury has never previously been the underdog. In fact, Fury has typically been listed as heavy chalk considering the uninspiring records of many of his opponents. Fury’s shortest line was when he was a -1400 favourite over MMA fighter Anthony Taylor in August 2021. He closed as a -2000 favourite for his win over Bocianski, according to Pro Boxing Odds.

Specific fight outcomes if you’re on Paul’s side…
Paul By KO/TKO/DQ +240
Paul Decision/Technical Decision +175
Paul in Round 1 +2400 | Paul in Round 2 +1900 | Paul in Round 3 +1600| Paul in Round 4 +1400 | Paul in Round 5 +1600 | Paul in Round 6 +2100 | Paul in Round 7 +2400 | Paul in Round 8 +3300

Paul has four stoppage wins. His first three were within the opening two rounds, while his viral knockout of Woodley in their rematch happened in Round 6 of an eight-round bout.

Specific fight outcomes if you’re on Fury’s side…
Fury By KO/TKO/DQ +275
Fury Decision/Technical Decision +350
Fury in Round 1 +3200 | Fury in Round 2 +2600 | Fury in Round 3 +2100 | Fury in Round 4 +1800 | Fury in Round 5 +2100 +2000 | Fury in Round 6 +2500 | Fury in Round 7 +3400 | Fury in Round 8 +4100

Half of Fury’s results have been finishes and half decisions. Three of his decisions were only four-round bouts, the other was six. His tilt with Paul will be the first eight-rounder of his career. Like Paul, all his stoppage wins have happened within the first two rounds.

Jake Paul Over/Under 0.5 knockdowns: Over +100 | Under -139
Tommy Fury Over/Under 0.5 knockdowns: Over +110 | Under -154
Jake Paul to be knocked down and win: Yes +399 | No -767
Tommy Fury to be knocked down and win: Yes +547 | No -1239
Either fighter to score a knockdown: Yes -311 | No +209
Both fighters to score a knockdown: Yes +330 | No -556

Paul and Fury are coming off decision wins in which they each recorded one knockdown against their respective opponents.

(Betting odds via Sports Interaction as of Friday evening and subject to change)


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