Inter’s Serie A title chase may be in tatters, but their European hopes are still alive as they carry a one-goal aggregate advantage with them to Portugal to take on Porto in the Champions League Round of 16.
Both sides are falling behind in their respective domestic league tables, and therefore the importance of advancing in Europe increases for each club knowing it might be their best chance for silverware this season. Inter especially are now 18 points behind Napoli, who are running away with the Italian top flight.
Porto, meanwhile, are also second in their league table, eight points behind Benfica and the gap is slowly increasing. Interestingly, the last four Porto matches have featured one of the participants having a player sent off, including the reverse fixture here as Otavio was given an early shower, leading eventually to Romelu Lukaku’s 86th-minute winner.
That slim advantage will have the Italian side feeling optimistic about this trip, as they have not lost a match by multiple goals since consecutive 2-0 defeats to Bayern Munich and Juventus in early November.
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Porto vs Inter match facts
- Date: Tuesday, March 14
- Kickoff Time: 4:00 pm ET / 8:00 pm GMT / 7:00 am AEDT (Wed, Mar. 15)
- Location: Estadio Do Dragao (Porto, Portugal)
- Official: Szymon Marciniak (POL)
- First leg: Inter 1-0 Porto (Feb. 22, 2023)
Porto vs Inter prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Draw (+260)
- Score prediction: Porto 1-2 Inter
Based on the odds, this game is wide open and anyone could advance. Some oddsmakers have the moneyline for this match absolutely dead even, while others have Inter to win and others have Porto to win. It’s nearly a perfect split! Yet on the whole, Inter are still heavy favourites to advance thanks to their slim first leg lead.
There’s even uncertainty over how this match will play out from a game flow perspective, with both teams to score just slightly favoured, while the 2.5 goal total is also nearly a dead-even split.
It’s understandable why books are divided on this game, as Inter have been extremely inconsistent, especially on the road, and Porto have not been tested on a regular Big Five League level. Finishing chances has been a recent issue for both of these teams, especially in the first leg when both sides undershot their expected goals tally significantly.
With both teams sporting clear weaknesses (Inter with their road form and Porto with their recent defensive lapses), the value here is on Inter clinging to a draw to advance on the back of their first leg victory.
to score Y / N
|-135 / -105||-149 / -104||8/11, 1/1||1.70 / 2.05||1.76 / 2.08|
|Over / Under
|-115 / -120||-110 / -121||10/11, 4/5||1.92 / 1.82||1.99 / 1.89|
Porto vs Inter: best bet
- Pick: Inter to win either half
- Odds: -120 (BetMGM)
I have absolutely no interest in picking a winner in this match, as both teams sport sides that should be more on paper but are held back by glaring weaknesses. Porto have coughed up a large amount of chances to mid-table domestic sides they should be beating handily, like conceding 1.92 xG to 10th-placed Chaves but escaping with a 3-1 win, or conceding 1.64 xG to 15th-placed Estoril but winning 3-2.
Inter, meanwhile, are calamitous on the road of late. Inter’s last three road games have resulted in defeat to Spezia, defeat at Bologna, and a scoreless draw with Sampdoria. In the Spezia loss this past weekend, they put up 3.87 xG but only scored on Romelu Lukaku’s 83rd-minute penalty, conceding again just four minutes later to fall 2-1.
While the sample size on both teams make it really hard to trust the “should be” traits, the defensive issues for Porto lead me to believe that Inter should be able to win at least one of the halves in this match, despite whether they actually come away with the victory or not.
Porto vs Inter prop bet
- Pick: Run of play — Lead-Draw
- Odds: +340 (BetMGM)
Keeping with the theme of this preview, no matter who takes the early lead, it’s hard to imagine they’ll keep hold of it given the recent results of both teams.
Therefore, it’s reasonable to expect the first team to score to eventually cough it up and fall to negative result. Inter, especially, will be keen to hang on to any lead they can muster, even to the point of conceding an equaliser knowing they have their one-goal aggregate advantage to fall back on.
Porto vs Inter live stream, TV channel
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