TCU or Arizona State? How to pick 6 vs. 11 matchup in 2023 March Madness bracket

The First Four is behind us and the Field of 64 for March Madness is now set. With two 11-seeds riding the momentum of a First Four victory into the Round of 64, they may be enticing picks to pull off upsets.

Arizona State will look to be that team when it takes take on 6-seed TCU. The Sun Devils made quite the statement in the First Four, using a dominant first half to cruise past Nevada 98-73. TCU last played in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals, where it suffered a close loss to Texas.

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TCU might have a rest advantage, but Arizona State is in rhythm, something that could come in handy on the big stage. Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between TCU and Arizona State, including rankings, key players, season breakdowns and more:

TCU vs. Arizona State odds

TCU vs. Arizona State will be played on Friday, March 17, the second day of the Round of 64, and tip off at 10:05 p.m. ET. TCU is favored in the game, according to BetMGM.

Below are details of the game, including odds, date, time, TV and venue.

  • Odds: TCU -4.5
  • Date: Friday, March 17
  • Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
  • TV: TruTV
  • Arena: Ball Arena, Denver

TCU (21-12, 9-9 Big 12)

Jamie Dixon and the Horned Frogs are in the NCAA Tournament for a second consecutive year. TCU finished the regular season ranked 22nd in the Associated Press Top 25 poll.

TCU is one of seven tournament teams from the Big 12. That means there was no night off for the Horned Frogs, who went through a gauntlet of a conference schedule. They finished sixth with a 9-9 record in Big 12 play.

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They posted an 8-11 record in Quad 1 games, with the best wins coming at Baylor and at Kansas. In the Big 12 Tournament, the Horned Frogs got past an impressive Kansas State team in the opening round before falling to eventual tournament champion Texas in the semifinals.

TCU is an experienced team with multiple all-conference performers. Metrics favor the Horned Frogs, who are battle-tested and have one of the best defenses in college basketball.

  • NET ranking: 28
  • KenPom ranking: 26
  • Quad 1 record: 8-11
  • Quad 2 record: 5-0
  • Quad 3 record: 0-0
  • Quad 4 record: 8-1
  • Offensive efficiency ranking: 52
  • Defensive efficiency ranking: 20

Key players

Mike Miles Jr., G., Jr. (6-2, 195): 17.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.6 apg

Damion Baugh, G., Sr. (6-4, 194): 12.6 ppg, 5.8 apg, 4.6 rpg

Emanuel Miller, F., Sr. (6-7, 217): 12.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.8 apg

JaKobe Coles, F., Soph. (6-7, 216): 8.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.2 apg

Chuck O’Bannon Jr., F., Sr. (6-6, 215): 7.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.0 apg

Arizona State (23-12, 11-9 Pac-12)

After a four-year drought, Arizona State is back in the NCAA Tournament and riding the momentum of a First Four victory into the Round of 64.

Bobby Hurley’s Sun Devils got out to a strong 15-3 start to the season but stumbled during the back half of conference play, finishing sixth in the Pac-12. Arizona State made a case for itself with wins over Oregon State and USC in the Pac-12 Tournament before losing to tournament champion Arizona in the semifinals.

The Sun Devils made the most of their opportunity in the First Four, leaving no doubt to advance to face the Horned Frogs.

Despite being one of the lowest-ranked teams in the field, Arizona State also has an elite defense capable of making life difficult for its opponent.

  • NET ranking: 66
  • KenPom ranking: 70
  • Quad 1 record: 5-6
  • Quad 2 record: 4-5
  • Quad 3 record: 5-0
  • Quad 4 record: 8-1
  • Offensive efficiency ranking: 133
  • Defensive efficiency ranking: 29

Key players

Desmond Cambridge Jr., G., Grad (6-4, 180): 13.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.2 apg

DJ Horne, G., Jr. (6-1, 175): 12.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.4 apg

Frankie Collins, G, Soph. (6-1, 185): 9.9 ppg, 4.4 apg, 4.2 rpg

Devan Cambridge, G., Sr. (6-6, 215): 9.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.9 apg

Warren Washington, F., Sr. (7-0, 225): 9.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.7 bpg

TCU vs. Arizona State prediction

If you’re a fan of defenses, this is the matchup for you — both TCU (20th) and Arizona State (29th) have top-30 defenses.

For the Horned Frogs, it starts with Mike Miles Jr., an all-conference performer who leads the team in scoring with 17.3 points per game, including nine games of 20-plus points. TCU’s record in those games? It’s 8-1.

After Miles, TCU boasts a balanced attack, with two other double-digit scorers in Damion Baugh and Emanuel Miller. The Horned Frogs love to turn defense into offense and make the most of transition opportunities.

Chuck O’Bannon Jr. is an X-factor. He scored 22 points in the Horned Frogs’ Big 12 Tournament win over K-State.

Arizona State is led by brothers Desmond and Devan Cambridge, who joined forces for their final year of college basketball. 

DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette) | Pohnl (Kansas)

They two of several key perimeter performers for the Sun Devils, who also lean heavily on Frankie Collins and DJ Horne. Warren Washington, a 7-footer, anchors the defense on the interior with 1.7 blocks per game.

There’s no rest for the weary, as Arizona State takes the floor in Denver on Friday after playing in Dayton on Wednesday night. Friday marks a week since TCU’s last game, bringing the rest vs. rust discussion to the forefront.

Given the defensive profile of both teams, the Sun Devils’ rhythm could be a factor if rest proves to help the Horned Frogs get going early, especially considering their tendency to get out in the open floor.

If Arizona State is fatigued, it may have its work cut out as it will need to make things ugly and limit TCU’s transition opportunities.

History of 6 vs. 11 matchups in NCAA Tournament

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams, 6-seeds are 91-57 against 11-seeds. History gives TCU a 61.5 percent chance of advancing past Arizona State in the Round of 64.

Recent history hasn’t been as kind to 6-seeds, which are 3-5 against 11-seeds over the last two tournaments. Last season, 11-seed Notre Dame earned a First Four win before upsetting 6-seed Alabama.

Below is a breakdown of the wins 11-seeds have enjoyed over 6-seeds over the last 10 tournaments.

Year Result
2022 Michigan 75, Colorado State 63
2022 Notre Dame 78, Alabama 64
2022 Iowa State 59, LSU 54
2021 UCLA 73, BYU 62
2021 Syracuse 78, San Diego State 62
2020 No Tournament
2019 Ohio State 62, Iowa State 59
2018 Loyola Chicago 64, Miami (Fla.) 62
2018 Syracuse 57, TCU 52
2017 Rhode Island 84, Creighton 72
2017 USC 66, SMU 65
2017 Xavier 76, Maryland 65
2016 Northern Iowa 75, Texas 72
2016 Gonzaga 68, Seton Hall 52
2016 Wichita State 65, Arizona 55
2015 Dayton 66, Providence 53
2015 UCLA 60, SMU 59
2014 Tennessee 86, UMass 57
2014 Dayton 60, Ohio State 59
2013 Minnesota 83, UCLA 63


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