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Missouri vs. Princeton odds, prediction, betting trends for 2023 March Madness Round of 32 matchup

Fresh off a monumental upset over second-seeded Arizona, 15th-seeded Princeton looks to officially cement itself as this year’s Cinderella by notching a trip to the Sweet 16. Parlaying their first-round win with a Round of 32 victory over the Missouri Tigers (-6.5) won’t come easy, as head coach Dennis Gates is anxious to get Missouri back to the second weekend for the first time since 2009.

Despite trailing by 12 points with under 12 minutes remaining in the second half, Princeton found a way to claw back from a double-digit deficit, dominating in the final minutes of regulation. Princeton held Arizona scoreless over the final 4:43 of regulation and was able to wall up against Wildcat big men Azoulas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo when it mattered most.

Meanwhile, Missouri’s pressure-heavy defense swallowed Utah State up, forcing 15 turnovers, and its perimeter defense held the Aggies to 16.7 percent shooting from three (four-of-24). Utah State ended up taking a two-point second-half lead after trailing by four points at the break, but could never get comfortable against the Tigers’ suffocating defense, ultimately falling 76-65.

Here’s everything to know about betting on Missouri vs. Princeton in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this Round of 32 matchup.  

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Missouri vs. Princeton odds    

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Missouri currently sits as 6.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 150.5 points. Missouri’s moneyline price of -275 gives it an implied win probability of 73.33 percent while Princeton’s moneyline price of +230 gives it a 30.30 implied win probability.

  • Spread: Missouri -6.5 (-110); Princeton +6.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: OVER 150.5 (-110); UNDER 150.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Missouri -275; Princeton +230

Three betting trends to watch 

— Missouri’s enjoyed playing at neutral sites this season, entering Saturday’s matchup with a 4-1 ATS mark in neutral site contests.

— They haven’t been in the underdog role often, but Princeton’s thrived in that role, covering in five of six games as ‘dogs.

— OVER bettors are licking their chops seeing Missouri pegged as the favorite, as the over’s gone 13-6 in games the Tigers have closed as favorites in.

Missouri key players  

Missouri’s a fairly balanced scoring team with three players (Kobe Brown, D’Moi Hodge, DeAndre Gholston) averaging double-figures. They aren’t the biggest team by any means, as Gates’ team tends to play five-out with either 6-8 Kobe Brown or 6-6 Noah Carter manning the five spot. 6-10 junior Mohamed Diarra will sometimes play the five if Missouri wants to play big, and Diarra could be tasked with playing more minutes than normal against a solid Princeton front-court.

MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here

Princeton key players  

Princeton’s led by 6-8 forward Tosan Evbuomwan, who’s the team’s most utilized player, taking a shot on 24.8 percent of possessions when on the court. Fellow front-court piece Keeshawn Kellman is the team’s second-most utilized player, while guards Matt Allocco and Blake Peters are the team’s best three-point shooters by percentage. 

15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

Best individual matchup: Kobe Brown vs. Tosan Evbuomwan

With Missouri likely starting out playing small, Brown will be tasked with keeping Evbuomwan in check on the defensive end. Evbuomwan led Princeton in scoring in its first-round upset, connecting on seven-of-15 shots from the floor while finishing with 15 points. He’s able to play out on the perimeter as well, and is a legit threat as a passer. Brown should be able to hold his own against Evbuomwan, but foul trouble could be a concern. On the other end of the court, Brown’s three-point shooting ability will force Evbuomwan to guard his out to the perimeter, which could open up space for Missouri’s guards to take advantage with back cuts.

Missouri vs. Princeton stat to know

Both defenses are polar opposites, as Missouri sports the nation’s fifth-highest turnover rate (24.3 percent) while Princeton ranks 348th in turnover rate (14.6 percent). 

DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette) | Pohnl (Kansas)

Missouri vs. Princeton prediction  

Missouri’s ability to push the pace on offense and space the floor with its plethora of shooters should be enough to notch a multi-possession win over Princeton. Princeton’s come-from-behind victory over Arizona showcased that it can knock off anyone in the country, but Missouri’s a tough team to play on a quick turnaround, and their ninth-rated offense hits enough shots to advance to the second weekend.

Prediction: Missouri 78, Princeton 68. Missouri (-6.5) covers the spread with the game going UNDER the total (150.5).


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