Miami (OH) vs. Toledo betting lines, props, predictions: Rockets ride 11-game winning streak into MAC Championship Game

The Toledo Rockets are on one of the longest win streaks in the nation, having won 11 straight since a two-point loss to Illinois back in Week 1. Toledo has had some challenging games, with six of their 11 wins coming in one-score games. That includes their win over Miami (OH) earlier this season when they beat the RedHawks 21-17. 

Miami had a chance to win the game, but the Toledo defense stood tall in the fourth quarter. The Redhawks had four fourth-quarter possessions but only ran 13 plays. Miami bounced back from the loss, winning their last four games and covering the spread in three out of four. During the regular season, the RedHawks covered nine of 12 games against the spread, making them a solid spread bet this year. 

Toledo, while on an 11-game winning streak, has been weaker against the spread at only 6-6 this season. The Rockets have been better of late, covering four of their last five games. With both teams winning and covering at a high percentage in recent weeks, the MAC Championship Game is set to be one of the best on Championship Weekend. 

Live odds for Miami (OH) vs. Toledo: MAC Championship Game

Here are the live odds for the Miami (OH) vs. Toledo MAC Championship Game with the moneyline, spread and total points available at the top sportsbook apps in the country.

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Miami (OH) RedHawks betting news

While the RedHawk offense has been up and down throughout the season, the defense has been one of the best in the MAC. Miami has not given up more than 21 points and has only done that twice, in their loss to Toledo and a 34-21 win over Western Michigan. The RedHawks defense has had two shutouts and held another opponent to just three points. 

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The RedHawks defensive leaders are two of the best linebackers in the MAC. Matt Salopoek (125 tackles) and Ty Wise (102 tackles) make it hard for any opponent to get much going on the ground. As a team, the RedHawks don’t force many turnovers, just 13 in total this season, but opponents have a tough time putting up points. The linebacking corps stops the run, and with 33 sacks as a team, opposing quarterbacks don’t have much time to throw. 

Miami (OH) has been inconsistent on offense, however, looking great some weeks but struggling to put up points in others. Brett Gabbert, the starter at the beginning of the season, injured his leg in the Toledo loss and is out for the year. Aveon Smith has replaced Gabbert but has yet to play nearly as well. 

In four games as the starter, Smith has only thrown for 469 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. His limitations as a passer are apparent, with a 52.5% completion percentage. Rashad Amos has picked up some of the slack on offense since Gabbert’s injury, with 400 yards rushing and six touchdowns in the last four games. 

Without Gabbert, the RedHawks need their defense to play their best game of the season, Aveon Smith to make the easy plays, not turn the ball over and hopefully get a big rushing game from Amos. Avenging their only MAC loss with Gabbert will be a tall task for Miami on Saturday, but expect them to keep the game close with their incredible defense. 

Toledo Rockets betting news

The Rockets learned something from their three-point loss in Week 1 — namely. how to finish games. At 11-1, the Rockets have won five of their 11 since the Illinois loss by less than a touchdown. Whether it is the defense shutting a team down in the fourth quarter or the offense putting together a game-winning drive, Toledo has been clutch late all season long. 

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Their offense is a two-headed monster between quarterback Dequan Finn and running back Peny Boone. Boone, a Maryland transfer, has settled in the lead role during his second year at Toledo. Boone has been nearly unstoppable with 1,359 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns, 13 catches, 189 receiving yards and a touchdown. He has also been consistent, with over 100 all-purpose yards in seven out of eight MAC games. It is worth noting that his only MAC game under 100 yards was against Miami.

Dequan Finn has starred alongside Boone in the backfield, as the quarterback has put up some monster numbers this season. Finn has 2,384 passing yards and 21 touchdowns and has been one of the best dual threats in the MAC. with 530 rushing yards and six touchdowns. 

Defensively, the Rockets may not limit opponents’ yardage as much as the RedHawks, but with 18 forced turnovers, they make up for it by taking the ball away. With a backup quarterback starting for Miami, the Rockets defense could play a pivotal role on Saturday. 

Miami (OH) vs. Toledo prop bets at FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Miami (OH) +8.5 and OVER 45.5 points (+300)
  • Miami (OH) +8.5 and UNDER 45.5 points (+200)
  • Toledo -8.5 and OVER 45.5 points (+290)
  • Toledo -8.5 and UNDER 45.5 points (+260)
  • Alt Points
    • 33.5 OVER (-430) / UNDER (+300)
    • 37.5 OVER (-245) / UNDER (+186)
    • 41.5 OVER (-146) / UNDER (+114)
    • 49.5 OVER (+164) / UNDER (-215)
    • 53.5 OVER (+250) / UNDER (-350)
    • 57.5 OVER (+370) / UNDER (-560)

Miami (OH) vs. Toledo prediction: Toledo pulls away in second half to win MAC Championship

This MAC Championship Game could have a different outcome if not for the season-ending injury to Miami quarterback Brett Gabbert. The RedHawks had scored and cut the Rockets’ lead to four points before Gabbert’s leg injury in their first matchup. After Gabbert’s injury, the RedHawks only put up 44 total yards of offense combined on their next four drives. 

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Without Gabbert, though, the Rockets will not only win the rematch, but they likely win more comfortably this time around. Expect Peny Boone to get over 100 all-purpose yards to make up for the only MAC team he has not done that against this season and be the MAC Championship Game MVP.

Pick: Toledo

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