Michigan vs. Iowa betting lines, props, & predictions: Large spread, low total present conundrum in Big Ten Championship

Michigan and Iowa face off in the Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium Saturday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET.

A win secures Michigan’s third consecutive trip to the College Football Playoff. But Iowa will not make it easy on the Wolverines despite being a massive underdog. The current Michigan vs. Iowa betting line has the Hawkeyes listed at .

Saturday’s tilt will not be the first time Michigan and the Hawkeyes have met in the Big Ten title game. They faced off in the 2021 edition, a game the Wolverines won convincingly, 42-3. Iowa was a 12.5-point underdog in that contest.

Michigan vs. Iowa betting odds: Spread, moneyline, and total for Big Ten Championship Game

Michigan dominated Iowa in the 2021 Big Ten Championship game and is a heavy favorite to win the conference again this season. But the Hawkeyes didn’t win 10 games by luck or because they lacked talent.

Here are live Michigan vs. Iowa odds from top sports betting apps:

Michigan vs. Iowa betting trends

  • Michigan leads the all-time series with Iowa, 44-15-4.
  • The Wolverines won the last meeting during the 2022 season, 27-14. They have also won the last three, including the 2021 Big Ten title game, 42-3.
  • Iowa’s last win over Michigan came in the 2016 season, a 14-13 victory at home.
  • While the Wolverines have dominated the series, the two teams have split the last 10 meetings, 5-5 (2006-22).
  • The OVER is 4-6 in the last 10 meetings. Four of the last five finished UNDER the total; the only outlier was the 2021 Big Ten title game (O/U 44; final score 42-3).
  • Michigan is 12-0 SU and 6-5-1 ATS. Iowa is 10-2 SU and 6-5-1 ATS.
  • The OVER is 6-5-1 for Michigan this season and 2-10 for Iowa.
  • Iowa was a double-digit underdog once this season (+14 vs. Penn State); they lost by 31.
  • Michigan was a double-digit favorite in 10 games this season and went 4-5-1 ATS.

Michigan vs. Iowa props: Totals predictably low on odds boards

The Wolverines shut opponents out in the first half in four of 12 games, while keeping them scoreless in the second half five times (49-0 win over Michigan State the only shutout). Iowa recorded points in both halves during nine of 12 games, got shut out once, and failed to score in the first half and second half just once,

Based on those trends, it’s not surprising to see these betting lines at DraftKings:

  • Iowa, team total points, first half O/U .5 (-135/+105)
  • Iowa, team total points, second half O/U .5 (-125/-105

Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country this season (No. 1 scoring and No. 2 total defense). Iowa has one of the worst offenses in the nation (No. 121 scoring and No. 130 total offense).

Iowa recorded at least one touchdown in every game but one during the regular season (vs. Penn State). Three teams failed to record a touchdown against Michigan during the regular season.

  • Iowa, team total touchdowns O/U .5 (+105/-145)

Michigan RB Blake Corum has scored at least one touchdown in every game this season and at least two in eight of 12 games. The last time he failed to score was vs. Ohio State in 2022, when he left the game after just two carries due to an injury. Iowa has allowed just two rushing touchdowns and 13 overall.

Iowa has a tough defense, but the Wolverines will feed Corum the ball enough for him to go OVER his rushing yards total.

  • Blake Corum
    • anytime touchdown scorer -310; to score 2+ TDs +140 (DraftKings)
    • OVER 92.5 rushing yards (FanDuel)

Michigan vs. Iowa analysis

The Wolverines enter the Big Ten title game vs. Iowa on a high, having finished the regular season undefeated after beating Ohio State for the third consecutive year. Michigan’s defense leads the way, holding teams to fewer than 250 total yards of offense and 10.2 PPG.

The UM offense can best be described as efficient since it averages 394.5 YPG (No. 57 in the country) while scoring 37.6 PPG (No. 13).

Blake Corum has been a scoring machine this season with 22 touchdowns (at least one in every game) but has recorded over 100 yards rushing just once this season. J.J. McCarthy is not the most productive guy at quarterback, but he does not make mistakes.

Iowa must force him to make a few if the Hawkeyes want to keep Michigan from scoring too quickly. With their offense struggling to generate yards and score, it would help if the defense could set them up on a short field a few times.

Michigan had only seven turnovers this season, five interceptions, and two fumbles.

Bets to consider in Michigan vs. Iowa Big Ten title game

Michigan will win this game, but there is no value in betting the moneyline, and Iowa’s defense is good enough to keep Michigan from running away with it. The Wolverines defense should have no trouble containing the dreadful Iowa defense and may even shut the Hawkeyes out.

UNDER points

While it will be tempting to go with Corum to score 2+ touchdowns, Iowa’s defense is tough to score on, making the ‘anytime touchdown’ market the better choice between the two. Corum will see the ball enough to go over his rushing total and possibly record his second 100+ yard game of the season.

  • Blake Corum 
    • anytime touchdown -310
    • OVER 92.5 rushing yards

The Iowa offense is dreadful and will struggle to gain yards let alone score against Michigan’s defense. It would not be shocking to see the Wolverines shut the Hawkeyes out in the first half, but for Iowa to get on the board in the second during garbage time.

  • Iowa, team total points, first half UNDER .5 +105 (DraftKings)

Where to bet Big Ten Championship game

Here are the top sportsbooks in your state to get in on the Michigan vs. Iowa betting action:

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