NFL odds, picks, predictions for Week 13: Expert model projects Eagles top 49ers, Texans halt Broncos’ streak

The NFL divisional races are starting to look a little bit tidied up. The NFC South is a tight race between the Falcons and Saints, but all other division leaders have at least two wins over their next closest competitor.

That doesn’t mean the playoff race isn’t compelling down the stretch. The AFC wild-card race currently has eight teams with between five and seven wins, while the last two wild-card spots in the NFC has nine teams between four and six wins.

Week 13 has several matchups that should help clear up the NFL chaos. The Cowboys have a chance to hand a blow to the Seahawks in the wild-card race, the Eagles and 49ers will battle for NFC supremacy and the Texans and Broncos square off in a pivotal AFC wild-card matchup.

NFL WEEK 13 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread

Each week, Sporting News’ model will project every game in the NFL 10,000 times to generate the number of times a team wins a matchup and calculate the win probability. The model adjusts after each week as it learns more about each team and that team’s quarterback.

Listed for each game is its projected spread, according to the model, and a team’s win probability. We’ve also included updated playoff and Super Bowl odds at the bottom. The odds listed with each game are not based on bookmakers, but rather how the model sees the game playing out. We will then compare the model’s odds with those from Caesars Sportsbook, to see how bookmakers are seeing the week’s games.

Here’s how the model sees Week 13 shaping up.

NFL picks, predictions Week 13

Cowboys (-7) vs. Seahawks

Win probability: 73.3%, Cowboys

The Cowboys are coming off a dominating win over the Commanders on Thanksgiving, while the Seahawks were handled by the 49ers in the final game of the holiday. Dallas has a chance to make Seattle’s road to the postseason tougher with a “Thursday Night Football” win a week later, and both the model (Cowboys, -7) and Caesars (Cowboys, -9) are picking Dallas to win big.

Lions (-4) vs. Saints

Win probability: 63.2%, Lions

The NFC North is quickly starting to feel like a shut door after the Vikings lost to the Bears on “Monday Night Football.” The NFC South is still wide-open after the Saints lost to the Falcons on Sunday, and New Orleans will need all the wins it can get in a winnable division. Even in New Orleans, this could be a tough spot for a Saints’ win against a tough Lions’ squad, with Caesars and the model favoring the Lions by 4.

Chargers (-6) vs. Patriots

Win probability: 70.9%, Chargers

Both these teams are spiraling, with the Chargers having now lost three straight to drop out of AFC wild-card contention and the Patriots dealing with a quarterback disaster and racing rapidly into contention for the No. 1 draft pick after losing to the Giants. Still, this feels like one of the biggest mismatches of the week, and both the model and Caesars are picking the Chargers by 6.

Zach Wilson

(Getty Images)

Jets (-2) vs. Falcons

Win probability: 55.4%, Jets

The Jets have now lost four games in a row, and have reached the point in the season where it has turned to Tim Boyle as the new quarterback. The Falcons, on the other hand, snapped a three-game losing streak, with Desmond Ridder helping lead Atlanta to the 24-15 win against the Saints. There might not be a lot of scoring in this matchup, and the model and Caesars are split on the winner, with the model setting the line at Jets by 2 and Caesars going Falcons by 2.5.

Titans (PK) vs. Colts

Win probability: 51.4%, Titans

When Anthony Richardson went out for the year with an injury, it felt like the Colts’ postseason hopes would be trending in the wrong direction. Now, Indianapolis, led by Gardner Minshew, is riding a three-game winning streak (albeit over the Panthers, Patriots and Buccaneers) to vault up to a 6-5 record and race into the wild-card race. The Titans, who just ended a three-game losing streak by beating the Panthers, are still settling in with Will Levis at quarterback. The model has this as a toss-up, slightly leaning toward the Titans, while Caesars is giving the Colts the 2-point spread.

Steelers (-11) vs. Cardinals

Win probability: 83.5%, Steelers

The model has been low on the Cardinals all season, even with Kyler Murray back, and it appears it is giving a lot of credit to the Steelers by making them an 11-point favorite. Fresh off a narrow 16-10 win against the Jake Browning-led Bengals, the Steelers’ offense appears to be slightly better, but still far from a powerhouse. Caesars has the Steelers as considerable favorites (-6.5), but is giving much more credit to the Cardinals.

Buccaneers (-7) vs. Panthers

Win probability: 73.9%, Buccaneers

Frank Reich is out in Charlotte as the Panthers have continued to struggle. The Buccaneers are coming off a crushing narrow loss to the Colts, but are not far off from the NFC wild-card race. Tampa Bay has just one win in its past seven games, but Carolina represents a perfect get-right opportunity, with the model putting the Buccaneers as 7-point favorites and Caesars giving Tampa Bay the 5.5-point edge.

Dolphins (-11) vs. Commanders

Win probability: 83.7%, Dolphins

The Dolphins continue to struggle against teams with winning records and demolish teams with losing records. Washington’s record? That would be 4-8, and has lost by double digits to the Giants and Cowboys in back-to-back weeks. Miami is a considerable favorite in both the betting market’s eyes (-9.5) and the model’s (-11).

Texans (-3) vs. Broncos

Win probability: 62%, Texans

Few would have expected Texans-Broncos would be a pivotal playoff matchup when the season began. But the Texans and Broncos are now tied at 6-5, each with realistic playoff chances heading into the final stretch of the season. Houston has been playing at a higher level throughout the year despite Denver’s recent hot streak, and Caesars (-3.5) and the model (-3) are both picking the Texans to snap the Broncos’ winning streak.

Jalen Hurts

(Getty Images)

Eagles (-3) vs. 49ers

Win probability: 61.8%, Eagles

An NFC championship rematch, the 49ers will actually have a quarterback capable of throwing the ball when the two teams meet again in Philadelphia. This is the fourth of five straight tough tests for the Eagles before Philadelphia ends the season with the Cowboys, Seahawks, Giants, Cardinals and Giants. The model and Caesars are split, with the model favoring the Eagles to move to 11-1 as 3-point favorites, while Caesars has the 49ers as 2.5-point favorites.

Browns (PK) vs. Rams

Win probability: 50.4%, Browns

The Browns continue to have a revolving door at quarterback, and now could be looking at the prospect of starting Joe Flacco when the team faces the Rams in Los Angeles. Cleveland is still in the driver’s seat of an AFC wild-card, but a second straight loss starts to make the road more challenging in a deep field. The model has the game set as a pick ’em leaning slightly toward the Browns. Caesars, however, sees the Rams as 4-point favorites.

Chiefs (-9) vs. Packers

Win probability: 78.1%, Chiefs

It was starting to look a little nerve-wracking for the Chiefs when they went down 14-0 to the Raiders, particularly considering the recent offensive issues. All the Chiefs did was out-score Las Vegas 31-3 the rest of the game. The Packers are starting to find some momentum with wins against the Chargers and Lions, which could make this a more interesting contest than it might’ve looked when Green Bay fell to 2-5 to begin the year. Caesars is giving the Packers a better shot in Green Bay as just 6.5-point underdogs than the model, which favors Kansas City by 9.

Jaguars (-7) vs. Bengals

Win probability: 73.6%, Jaguars

Schedule-makers saw this preseason matchup as a national championship rematch between Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow in a battle between two NFL star quarterbacks. Instead, it will now be Lawrence against Browning and a Bengals’ team that mustered just 10 points in a Week 12 loss. The Jaguars are viewed as considerable favorites by both the model (7) and Caesars (8.5).

(Getty Images)

Updated NFL projections 2023

AFC East

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Dolphins 12-5 97.3% 1.8% 99.1% 17.2% 17.0% 6.8%
Bills 9-8 2.7% 22.9% 25.6% 0.0% 1.8% 0.8%
Jets 7-10 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Patriots 3-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC North

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Ravens 12-5 82.6% 16.7% 99.3% 16.4% 25.2% 13.4%
Browns 10-7 6.0% 64.4% 70.5% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4%
Steelers 10-7 11.4% 67.8% 79.2% 0.9% 1.3% 0.5%
Bengals 7-10 0.0% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

AFC South

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Jaguars 12-5 93.1% 6.3% 99.4% 15.9% 11.6% 4.8%
Texans 10-7 4.8% 50.3% 55.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3%
Colts 9-8 2.2% 32.6% 34.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%
Titans 6-11 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC West

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Chiefs 13-4 99.4% 0.5% 99.9% 49.3% 40.1% 19.7%
Broncos 9-8 0.4% 23.9% 24.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Chargers 7-10 0.2% 7.8% 8.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Raiders 6-11 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC East

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Eagles 15-2 97.1% 3.0% 100.0% 84.8% 53.5% 29.3%
Cowboys 11-6 3.0% 95.8% 98.8% 1.1% 6.8% 3.6%
Giants 5-12 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Commanders 5-12 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC North

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Lions 12-5 89.7% 9.2% 98.9% 2.1% 9.4% 4.0%
Vikings 9-8 8.8% 52.0% 60.9% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3%
Packers 8-9 1.5% 36.3% 37.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%
Bears 6-11 0.0% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC South

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Saints 9-8 43.3% 11.9% 55.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Falcons 8-9 41.2% 13.5% 54.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Buccaneers 7-10 15.5% 7.6% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Panthers 3-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC West

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
49ers 12-5 99.4% 0.6% 100.0% 12.0% 28.3% 15.5%
Seahawks 8-9 0.4% 40.2% 40.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Rams 7-10 0.2% 27.0% 27.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cardinals 3-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Source

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