Best College Football prop bets today: Jalen Milroe highlights over/under picks for conference championships

Saturday’s Power Five conference championship slate features four must-see matchups that will shape the final release of the College Football Playoff rankings. The day kicks off with Texas (-14.5) dueling with Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship, setting the stage for a potential epic showdown between top-ranked Georgia (-6.5) and Alabama in the SEC Championship. College football fans are then in for a treat with a prime-time doubleheader, as Florida State (-2.5) takes on Louisville in the ACC Championship and Michigan (-22.5) faces off against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship.

We’ve sifted through the available player props markets on FanDuel Sportsbook and found plenty of actionable offerings to spice up Saturday’s conference championship slate. Without further ado, let’s break ’em down.

Best college football prop bets for Saturday’s conference championships

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama  — UNDER 1.5 passing TDs (-114)

Bettors might not want to fade Alabama’s QB1 after he saved the Crimson Tide’s season with an improbable 31-yard passing TD in the final seconds of the Iron Bowl, but against an elite Georgia coverage unit, we’re doing just that. Georgia has allowed the seventh-fewest passing TDs this season (11) and boasts an efficient pass defense (21st in dropback EPA at -0.051).

Yes, Milroe has taken sizable strides as a passer this season, but as long as Georgia can contain his deep ball (132.5 passer rating on 20-plus yard passes), it could be a struggle for the Tide to consistently move the ball through the air. We think that ultimately leads to Milroe either taking off and running when in the red zone or relying on RBs Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams to reach paydirt.

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan  — UNDER 192.5 passing yards (-114)

With Michigan pegged as a substantial 22.5-point favorite, McCarthy likely won’t be tasked with consistently moving the ball through the air. Michigan has leaned heavily on the ground game in its past three contests, with McCarthy finishing with 148, 141, and 60 passing yards, respectively.

It also doesn’t help that Iowa ranks in the top 25 in dropback EPA, as a steady Hawkeyes’ coverage unit can hold its own against Michigan’s receiving corps. McCarthy has been uber-efficient as a passer when his number’s called, completing 74.3 percent of his passes, but Sherrone Moore might not ask him to do too much with his arm. Michigan ranks 122nd in pass rate (39.5%), so a heavy dosage of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards likely results in McCarthy going UNDER this number for a fourth straight time.

Brennan Presley, WR, Oklahoma State  — OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-114)

We believe Oklahoma State’s leading target-getter (109) and receiver (76 receptions, 746 yards) is a strong bet to surpass his receiving yardage total during Saturday’s Big 12 Championship. Although OSU has one of the country’s best running backs in Ollie Gordon II, Texas’ high-powered offense could put the ‘Pokes into a multi-score deficit, forcing QB Alan Bowman to pass at a high clip.

Presley is averaging just 9.8 yards per reception, but he’s seen 9.4 targets per game, serving as Bowman’s safety valve. Presley has especially seen elite usage in OSU’s past two weeks, racking up a whopping 33 targets and totaling 24 receptions for 279 yards.

Jordan Whittington, WR, Texas  OVER 29.5 receiving yards (-114)

Whittington may not be the most dynamic wide receiver in Burnt Orange, but with his yardage prop sitting at an attainable 29.5, we’ll take a shot on UT’s slot wideout going OVER this number for a third straight game. Oklahoma State’s defense ranks outside the top 100 in dropback EPA (0.221 EPA; 107th), and Quinn Ewers and company are in line for a strong offensive showing. Whittington’s stability (three drops on 46 targets) makes him a safe bet to exploit a susceptible OSU coverage unit.

Donovan Edwards, RB, Michigan  OVER 40.5 rushing yards (-114)

Although Edwards hasn’t produced at the rate many thought he would after his breakout sophomore season, we still think Michigan’s RB2 eclipses his rushing yardage prop on Saturday night. Even with Michigan playing one-score games in the past two weeks, Edwards has averaged 10.5 carries. That’s an encouraging sign for a potential 15-plus carry night in a game in which Michigan likely leads by multiple scores. Edwards has only gone OVER 40.5 rushing yards three times this year, but he’s always a threat to pop off a big run behind an elite group of offensive linemen.

Daijun Edwards, RB, Georgia  Any Time Touchdown Scorer (-130)

UGA’s bruising RB has lived in the end zone this season, scoring 11 TDs in 10 games. We think the Bulldogs’ RB1 reaches paydirt at least once on Saturday afternoon, as his ability to shed defenders (2.85 yards after first contact) makes him tough to bring down in the red zone. Georgia is expected to score its fair share of points, with its team total sitting at 30.5, so if the Bulldogs end up scoring four-plus offensive TDs, we think there’s a good chance Edwards is one of their TD scorers.

Trey Benson, RB, Florida State  Any Time Touchdown Scorer (-125)

Benson is coming off a three-TD effort in Florida State’s come-from-behind win over Florida last week, logging 19 carries as the team’s workhorse. He figures to see similar usage as the team’s bell-cow RB with the Seminoles putting more emphasis on the ground game following starting QB Jordan Travis’ season-ending leg injury. Another heavy workload could lend itself to Benson extending his TD streak to six games.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *