NFL odds, picks, predictions for Week 14: Expert model projects Chiefs edge Bills, Cowboys top Eagles

All eyes will be on the late window in Week 14.

There are a pair of interesting matchups for NFL fans to watch out for, starting with the Chiefs facing the Bills and the Broncos playing the Chargers in the late afternoon, followed up by the Cowboys and Eagles squaring off on “Sunday Night Football.”

Neither the Bills nor Chiefs have looked up to their usual lofty standards in 2023, and each have a chance to collect a big win. The Broncos are still in the wild-card hunt, but face a tough matchup against the Chargers who are trying desperately to stay in the race. And following a loss to the 49ers, the Eagles now head to Dallas to square off with a Cowboys’ team looking to make the NFC East a two-team race again.

Each week, Sporting News’ model will project every game in the NFL 10,000 times to generate the number of times a team wins a matchup and calculate the win probability. The model adjusts after each week as it learns more about each team and that team’s quarterback.

Listed for each game is its projected spread, according to the model, and a team’s win probability. We’ve also included updated playoff and Super Bowl odds at the bottom. The odds listed with each game are not based on bookmakers, but rather how the model sees the game playing out. We will then compare the model’s odds with those from Caesars Sportsbook, to see how bookmakers are seeing the week’s games.

Here’s how the model sees Week 14 shaping up.

MORE WEEK 14 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread

NFL picks, predictions Week 14

Steelers (-7) vs. Patriots

Win probability: 72.7%, Steelers

The Patriots’ defense has quietly been one of the best in the league this season. The offense, well, that’s been the biggest reason behind the woeful 2-10 record from New England. They’re not facing another offensive juggernaut in “Thursday Night Football” with the Steelers starting Mitchell Trubisky in place of Kenny Pickett. But there’s enough that should favor the Steelers, which is why both the model and Caesars are favoring Pittsburgh by 7 and 6 points, respectively.

Falcons (-3) vs. Buccaneers

Win probability: 60.9%, Falcons

The Falcons are officially the leaders in the NFC South, with the Saints sliding recently. The Buccaneers continue to hang around, recently pulling off a win over the hapless Panthers. Atlanta pulled off a narrow win on the road at Tampa Bay earlier in the season, and are 3-point favorites to the model and 2.5-point favorites to Caesars.

Lions (-8) vs. Bears

Win probability: 76.7%, Lions

The last time the Bears and Lions faced off was in Detroit, and Jared Goff’s squad barely escaped with a win after some late chaos. The Bears are coming off an uninspiring 12-10 win over the Vikings, and Caesars is giving them decent odds at beating the Lions in Chicago, putting the Lions as only 3-point favorites. The model is more confident that Detroit can win big on the road, favoring the Lions by 8 points.

Jake Browning

(Getty Images)

Bengals (-3) vs. Colts

Win probability: 62.2%, Bengals

Don’t look now, but the Bengals’ playoff hopes suddenly seem a bit more alive. Jake Browning had an outstanding performance against the Jaguars to lead Cincinnati to a stunning road win on “Monday Night Football.” But the Colts are riding a four-game winning streak into playoff contention. The model and Caesars disagree on the winner, with the model picking the Bengals as 3-point favorites and Caesars listing the Colts as 1-point favorites.

Jaguars (-1) vs. Browns

Win probability: 53.3%, Jaguars

This game has the potential to change quite a lot between now and kickoff. Right now, the model (and likely Caesars) are assuming that C.J. Beathard will be the starter due to Lawrence’s high ankle sprain. The Browns are 5-1 at home, and the offense looked better with Joe Flacco under center against the Rams. The model still thinks the Jags can get it done in Cleveland by only a point, but Caesars is listing the Browns as 3-point favorites.

Saints (-10) vs. Panthers

Win probability: 81.4%, Saints

The Panthers just cannot get a win at this point. They’ve moved on from their head coach, and appear to be headed toward the bottom of the NFL and delivering the Bears a first overall pick. New Orleans is in a bit of a tailspin as well, particularly with Derek Carr now headed to concussion protocol. But in New Orleans, this still feels one-sided, with Caesars putting New Orleans as 5.5-point favorites, a slight improvement from the model’s line of 10 points to the Saints.

CJ Stroud 12032023

(Getty Images)

Texans (-4) vs. Jets

Win probability: 63.5%, Texans

The Texans keep rolling, having snapped the Broncos’ winning streak to further establish their spot as legitimate wild-card contenders. Houston clearly has its answer at quarterback in C.J. Stroud. Its Week 14 opponent does not. Tim Boyle was released, and Zach Wilson might or might not want to start again. This could be a sixth straight loss for the Jets. In New York, the Texans are 4-point favorites by the model and 5.5-point favorites by Caesars.

Ravens (-17) vs. Rams

Win probability: 91.7%, Ravens

This is by far the most surprising model prediction of the week. The Ravens are understandably big favorites against the Rams in Baltimore, with the model now picking Baltimore as the AFC’s top team. But 17 points is a massive line, particularly for a Rams team that has now won three straight games, including picking up a big win over the Browns. Caesars is picking the Ravens to win, but only as 7-point favorites.

Vikings (-5) vs. Raiders

Win probability: 67.4%, Vikings

The Joshua Dobbs honeymoon run is over after a rough performance against the Bears resulting in a loss. And the Raiders’ 2-0 start in the Antonio Pierce interim era has now transitioned to a 2-2 record with losses to the Dolphins and Chiefs before a bye week. Even on the road in Las Vegas, both the model (Vikings by 5) and Caesars (Vikings by 3) are picking Minnesota.

Brock Purdy

Getty Images

49ers (-14) vs. Seahawks

Win probability: 87.7%, 49ers

The 49ers asserted their dominance in the NFC by rolling past the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Seahawks, meanwhile, dropped their third straight as they’ve hit a rough patch in their quest for a second straight playoff appearance. These two teams met two weeks ago in Seattle, and the 49ers dominated the Seahawks 31-13. Heading back to San Francisco, the 49ers are huge favorites by both the model (14) and Caesars (10.5).

Chiefs (-4) vs. Bills

Win probability: 64.5%, Chiefs

The Chiefs and Bills have delivered some thrilling matchups in recent years. The Chiefs have won the playoff matchups, while the Bills are 2-1 in the regular season meetings between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. This is a more complicated matchup than the teams have seen in recent years, with both teams looking for answers. Though the Chiefs have had some offensive issues, they’ve still been the better team this year, with the model picking Kansas City by 4 and Caesars picking the Chiefs by 2.5.

Chargers (-5) vs. Broncos

Win probability: 66.9%, Chargers

The Chargers find themselves in the uncomfortable position of looking up at the Broncos in the AFC West standings. Denver has occupied the AFC West cellar in each of the past three seasons, but now it is all the way up to second. Los Angeles, on the other hand, came into the year expecting to build off its wild-card appearance last year. Even after Denver’s loss to the Texans, the Broncos are very much in the mix for a wild card, while the Chargers are looking to turn around after a dismal start to the year. Though Denver’s been the better team this year, the Chargers are the favorites at home by both the model (by 5) and Caesars (by 3).

Dak Prescott

(Getty Images)

Cowboys (-1) vs. Eagles

Win probability: 53.6%, Cowboys

Following the Eagles’ loss to the 49ers, this matchup all of a sudden takes on much more significance. A win by the Cowboys, and they’re right back in the NFC East race. A win by the Eagles, and they re-establish themselves as the runaway favorites in the division. Dallas came up just short last time in Philadelphia, but back at home, the model has the Cowboys as 1-point favorites, while Caesars has them as 3.5-point favorites.

Dolphins (-15) vs. Titans

Win probability: 90.1%, Dolphins

This looks like a complete mismatch. The Dolphins have demolished teams with a losing record. The Titans still have just one win against teams with a winning record this year. The first of two “Monday Night Football” games has blowout potential, with the model putting the Dolphins as 15-point favorites and Caesars favoring Miami by 13.5.

Packers (-1) vs. Giants

Win probability: 55.1%, Packers

Don’t look now, but the Giants quietly have a two-game winning streak, albeit with wins over the Commanders and Patriots. Tommy DeVito doesn’t look as shaky as he did in his debut, and has become the talk of the town in New York.  But the Packers are clicking on all cylinders after beating the Chiefs to make it three straight wins. The model has a low spread in New York, favoring Green Bay by just 1, while Caesars has the Packers as more comfortable 6.5-point favorites.

Updated NFL projections 2023

AFC East

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Dolphins 12-5 98.1% 1.5% 99.5% 34.2% 23.1% 10.3%
Bills 9-8 1.9% 23.8% 25.8% 0.0% 2.1% 0.9%
Jets 6-11 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Patriots 3-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC North

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Ravens 12-5 90.4% 8.8% 99.2% 27.9% 31.4% 15.8%
Browns 10-7 4.1% 51.8% 55.9% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3%
Steelers 9-8 5.5% 51.2% 56.7% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3%
Bengals 8-9 0.0% 11.2% 11.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%

AFC South

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Jaguars 11-6 76.0% 21.3% 97.2% 7.3% 7.7% 2.9%
Texans 10-7 15.0% 55.6% 70.6% 0.2% 1.9% 0.6%
Colts 10-7 9.1% 49.3% 58.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1%
Titans 5-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC West

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Chiefs 12-5 98.8% 0.8% 99.5% 29.9% 31.0% 13.6%
Broncos 8-9 0.4% 12.3% 12.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Chargers 8-9 0.8% 12.0% 12.8% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Raiders 6-11 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC East

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Eagles 14-3 90.7% 9.3% 100.0% 59.5% 37.9% 19.6%
Cowboys 12-5 9.3% 90.4% 99.7% 2.1% 9.0% 4.7%
Giants 5-12 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Commanders 5-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC North

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Lions 12-5 93.9% 5.8% 99.8% 5.3% 12.3% 5.9%
Packers 9-8 2.2% 54.8% 57.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%
Vikings 8-9 3.9% 43.8% 47.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%
Bears 6-11 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC South

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Falcons 9-8 62.6% 9.0% 71.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Saints 8-9 21.3% 10.2% 31.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Buccaneers 7-10 16.1% 8.6% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Panthers 2-15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC West

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
49ers 13-4 99.8% 0.2% 100.0% 33.1% 39.7% 24.3%
Seahawks 8-9 0.0% 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Rams 8-9 0.2% 43.8% 44.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Cardinals 4-13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Source

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