WNBA Draft Lottery, explained: Updated odds for every team to win the No. 1 overall pick in 2024

Miss the WNBA yet? Good, because it’s back for one day.

The WNBA Draft Lottery will determine which team has the No. 1 pick in a stacked class of women’s basketball players that may include Caitlin Clark and Paige Bueckers. Neither has declared for the draft yet, as both are eligible to continue their college careers following this season. They’re projected to be the top two picks in the 2024 class, which will be drafted on Sunday, April 15.

Sunday’s lottery will air between the Utah-South Carolina and North Carolina-UConn games.

Here’s everything you need to know about the WNBA Draft Lottery and the odds for each team to win the top pick.

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2024 WNBA Draft Lottery odds

The Fever have the best odds to win the WNBA Draft Lottery. They earned the No. 1 pick for the first time in the 2023 draft, selecting Aliyah Boston.

Here are each team’s odds to win the No. 1 pick:

Team Odds for No. 1 pick Combined 22-23 record
Indiana Fever 44.2% 18-58
Phoenix Mercury 27.6% 24-52
Los Angeles Sparks 17.8% 30-46
Seattle Storm 10.4% 33-43

WATCH: Stream the WNBA Draft Lottery on Sling TV

What is the WNBA Draft Lottery?

The WNBA uses a lottery system to determine the order the top four teams will draft.

Rather than the team with the worst recent record getting the No. 1 pick, the four teams with the lowest cumulative records from the past two seasons are eligible. This year, the Fever, Mercury, Sparks and Storm are in the mix.

To determine the order of the top four picks, 14 numbered balls are mixed into a lottery machine before being drawn to determine a four-digit code. The team that’s given that combination will then receive the No. 1 pick. This process is repeated for the second pick.

The remaining team with the lowest cumulative record will receive the No. 3 pick. This means Indiana, which has the lowest combined record from 2022 and 2023, will not pick any later than third. Whichever team remains of the four franchises will pick fourth.

Picks five through 12 have already been determined based on records. They are as follows:

Pick Team 2023 record
5. Dallas Wings (from Chicago Sky) 18-22 (CHI)
6. Washington Mystics 19-21
7. Minnesota Lynx 19-21
8. Atlanta Dream 19-21
9. Dallas Wings 22-18
10. Connecticut Sun 27-13
11. New York Liberty 32-8
12. Los Angeles Sparks (from Las Vegas Aces) 34-6 (LVA)


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