Jets vs. Dolphins odds, props, predictions: Somehow Zach Wilson is the hotter QB in this late-season AFC East matchup

Just like millions of non-athlete New Yorkers do each December, the Jets (5-8) will travel to Miami in Week 15 to square off with the 9-4 Dolphins. The Dolphins are favored by -8.5 and the OVER/UNDER rests at 40.

There is no shortage of improbable NFL storylines this season, and in that vein we’d like to point out that Jets QB Zach Wilson has been through the New York media ringer as his career arc has gone from franchise QB to Aaron Rodgers understudy, back to starter, back to the bench, and then, after coach Robert Saleh realized Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian aren’t good at all, back to starter.

In Week 14, Wilson led the Jets in a 30-6 laugher over the Houston Texans, outplayed rookie phenom C.J. Stroud and posted a most impressive 27-of-36 for 301 yards passing with two touchdowns and no picks. Kind of makes you think the Jets might have benefited from sticking with Wilson the whole time, but that’s neither here nor there at this point. The Jets scored 0 points in the first half and 30 in the second last week, so we’ll see if they’ll remain hot or revert to their slow-starting ways vs. the Dolphins.

Miami has been an electrifying team to watch for most of this season, with QB Tua Tagovailoa leading their offense to average 31.6 PPG and seemingly producing long-bomb TDs to WR Tyreek Hill every time an NFL broadcast goes to a game break.

All those points and all the hype didn’t help Tua and the Phins last week, where they melted down in the final four minutes and dropped the game 28-27 at home to the Titans (5-8) and rookie QB Will Levis. Tagovailoa only threw for 240 yards on 23-of-33 passing and didn’t find the end zone during this troubling loss.

Will Zach Wilson, Tua or neither QB play well on Sunday? Let’s find out.

Betting odds for Jets vs. Dolphins: Point spread, moneyline, total for NFL Week 15 matchup

Here are the latest NFL betting odds for Jets vs. Dolphins:

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Jets betting news: 

The J-E-T-S are 5-7-1 ATS in 2023. This includes a troubling 1-5-1 during their last seven. It’s been tricky betting the Jets either way because of their revolving door at QB, and even the most astute gamblers have struggled to guess whether Trevor Siemian or Tim Boyle is going to be more frustratingly ineffective if under center. 

However, with Zach Wilson slated to start the rest of the way, bettors can benefit from not having to guess who/how bad as much as they did during the past few weeks. It remains to be seen if the fourth-ranked Jets defense will be mailing Christmas cards to members of their 30th-ranked offense, but maybe they’ll be more inclined to if these trends continue:

  • Force feed Garrett Wilson regardless of how open he is: The Jets mega-talented wideout notched nine catches for 108 yards on 14 targets last week and needs to keep seeing the ball regularly. It’s not just that Wilson is the most electrifying option on the board, it’s that the rest of the WR corps has so little. Going into 2023 expecting big things from Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb has not played out well for Gang Green.
  • Embrace that RB Breece Hall is your WR2: Breece Hall ripped the Texans for 10 carries/40 yards rushing and an impressive eight catches for 86 yards receiving with a TD on nine targets. Zach Wilson can lead this team into playing meaningful football late enough in the season to gift us a “Return of Aaron Rodgers QB Controversy” if he continues to work underneath and avoid third and longs that lead to interceptions.

Dolphins betting news: 

Miami enters Week 15 sitting at 8-5 ATS this year, but their results have cooled considerably. After covering five of their first six tries, they’re just 3-4 in their past seven. Miami has hit the OVER three weeks in a row — look for them to push that streak to four needing just 40 to do so. Two reasons to think the Dolphins are going to take out their Week 14 frustrations on the Jets include:

  • Tyreek Hill’s Bad Wheel and The Quest for 2,000: Hill missed time during last week’s loss to Tennessee with an ankle injury that ties into and must support the weight of the Dolphins’ championship hopes. Hill has 1,542 receiving yards and must tally 458 in his final four games in order to net 2,000 yards receiving on the season. Look for Tua to look his way often, as he did from Weeks 7-12 when Hill saw double-digit targets in five consecutive games.
  • Miami’s defense is probably very mad: Before blowing their 14-point lead in the final three minutes on Monday Night Football in Week 14, NFL teams were 3-2074 when down 14-plus in that time span. It remains to be seen what strategy the Dolphins defense employs at home against the Jets in Week 15, but it figures to be as aggressive if not more than they were during their 34-13 Black Friday beatdown of the Jets at Met Life Stadium in Week12.

Jets vs. Dolphins props

Sportsbooks had not yet posted Jets vs. Dolphins player props as of this writing, but two angles to pursue include:

  • Greg Zuerlein Field Goals OVER: The Jets exploded for 30 points in the final 30 minutes of last week’s game. Don’t expect the floodgate of points to continue in bunches of seven. Look for the Jets to move the ball a decent amount on Sunday but struggle to finish drives in the red zone.
  • Tyreek Hill + Raheem Mostert + De’Von Achane Any Time TD Scorer: The Mostert + Hill odds won’t be head-turners, but adding Achane to the ticket will help sweeten the payout.

Jets vs. Dolphins prediction

Jets fans should be encouraged by Zach Wilson leading them to a big win last week and looking like he can run the offense without making catastrophic miscues that not even their great defense can overcome. Still, the Dolphins boat-racing the Jets again is clearly within the realm of outcomes here with Tua trying to guide Tyreek Hill to a 2,000+ yard receiving campaign that won’t soon be forgotten. The Jets won’t score enough to win, but should score enough to help this game meet the OVER.

Pick: Dolphins

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