Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 15: Russell Wilson, Cooper Kupp, T.J. Hockenson highlight our experts’ picks

December football has been flying by as we race toward Christmas and sprint toward the NFL Playoffs. And with millions of fantasy football managers failing to make the playoffs or on the brink of elimination, there has never been a better time to hit the SuperDraft

December football is in full swing, and the race to the playoffs has started to heat up. This is the most wonderful time of the year for more reasons than one — it makes for better football and better opportunities on the player prop betting market. Today, as we do each week, our SN Bets’ experts will unveil our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for the upcoming weekend of NFL football. 

Every Friday, my colleagues Vinnie Iyer, Nick Musial, Nick Brinkerhoff join me to scour SuperDraft and pinpoint the over/under props that we believe yield the most value. We then provide detailed explanations as to why those props give us the greatest chance of winning. 

Each of us typically unveils three over/under props per week — at least a dozen total — from the vast main-slate offerings on SuperDraft. The concept for the column is simple: we research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, handpick the best props, and then deliver them to you.

Along the way, we keep a weekly record of each of our weekly successes and failures — and of course, we reveal our updated season standings. Our motivations are two-fold: (1) beat our colleagues, and (2) help you beat the books. The more we win, the more money our readers make to help with Christmas gift shopping!

MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft

Take a look at the updated standings after Week 14 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:

Expert Week 14 Overall
Sloan Piva 3-0 23-17 
Vinnie Iyer 0-3 21-18
Nick Musial 2-1 19-18
Nick Brinkerhoff 2-1 13-26

After going 16-5 over the previous five weeks, Vinnie finally cooled off and went 0-3. That opened the door for yours truly, and I didn’t squander the opportunity. Jahmyr Gibbs, Joe MIxon, and Jerome Ford provided me with the RB trifecta, pushing me back to six above .500 for the season. 

The Nicks both had strong weeks, although Brinkerhoff was rolling his eyes over Justin Fields coming just two yards short of his rushing yards OVER (60.5). Still, Brinks struck gold with Jake Ferguson and Deebo Samuel, both of whom eviscerated their opponents and their projections. Muse cashed in on the OVER for both Cooper Kupp and Jaylen Waddle, but fell short with Davante Adams in the Vikings-Raiders’ three-point snoozer. 

One thing’s for certain: our panel of experts is much better than our overall record suggests. So, let’s lock in some winners and capitalize on teams cranking up the volume during the home stretch. If you’re not familiar with SuperDraft, check it out! SD’s Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs added to the player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But obviously, the longer the odds, the more difficult it gets to nail down a clean sweep. Research is imperative.

That’s where we come in. Our panel of experts does the leg work, finds the best value, pitches our favorite props, and lets you handle the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be two (3X payout), but sometimes we’ll put a lower stake on a three-prop parlay (6X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).

Let’s get to it. Below we will detail our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for this weekend’s NFL games, with our highest-confidence picks listed first. Good luck, happy holidays, and enjoy what should be an entertaining and lucrative Week 15!

MORE: Win BIG with SuperDraft! Get a free $10 deposit when you use promo code “TSN”!

NFL Prop Picks Week 15: Our experts’ favorite SuperDraft bets

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions vs. Broncos — OVER 53.5 rushing yards or OVER 85.5 rushing + receiving yards (Sloan Piva)

This is our second straight week choosing Gibbs as one of our player prop locks. Dan Campbell and the Lions have clearly figured out by now that the rookie gives Detroit its best chance to succeed, as Gibbs finally out-snapped and out-carried David Montgomery. The snap count was the most glaring, with the rook seeing 41 offensive snaps compared to the vet’s 23. Gibbs ended up with 79 all-purpose yards and a TD in a losing effort to the Bears.

Newsflash (in case you have been living under a rock the past 14 weeks): Denver sucks at stopping the run. No team has surrendered more rushing yards to RBs (124.7 per game), and only five teams have given up more than the Broncos’ 40.5 opposing RB receiving yards per game. The Broncos have improved mightily since earlier this season, but that’s not saying much when you consider Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane, and the ‘Fins put 70 on them three months ago.

For the Lions to win games, they must establish the run and get Gibbs involved in the passing game early and often. This could serve as a get-right game for Campbell’s squad, which desperately wants to reharness the momentum it felt earlier in the season. Go with Gibbs for the win!

MORE WEEK 15 BETTING: ATS | Moneyline | Best Bets

Russell Wilson, QB, Broncos at Lions — OVER 27.5 rushing yards (Vinnie Iyer)

The Lions struggle with giving up rushing yards to mobile quarterbacks. They also erase the traditional running game well. Wilson tends to run more in shootouts or negative game scripts and Detroit’s downfield defensive scheming will create some space for him to take off and run well multiple times. He should do this in about 5 attempts throughout the game, from mostly scrambles but maybe one or two designed runs.

Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams vs. Commanders — OVER 75.5 receiving yards (Nick Musial)

Fresh off an eight-catch, 115-yard, one-TD showing in the Rams’ overtime loss in Baltimore, Kupp has started looking like his normal self again — and at a very opportune time for fantasy owners and player prop bettors.

The Stafford-to-Kupp connection shouldn’t suffer many hiccups against a lackluster Commanders pass defense ranked 32nd in drop-back EPA (0.211). If Kupp sees close to his season average of nearly eight targets per game, he’s in a position to go OVER his receiving yardage prop for a second straight week.

Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys @ Bills — OVER 42.5 receiving yards (Nick Brinkerhoff)

The Cowboys are taking their show on the road, a place that hasn’t been too kind to them in 2023. Their home dominance is well-documented, with a 7-0 record and per-game average of 39.9 points at AT&T Stadium. But on the road, Dallas has seen its record drop to 3-3 and its average scoring output plummet to just 23.7 PPG.

Dak Prescott and the ‘Boys love to air it out, but a rainy December Sunday in Buffalo could complicate matters. That leaves Ferguson to roam underneath and over the middle, an area that the Bills have struggled to defend since losing Matt Milano for the year.

The weather could further hinder Dak and his explosive wideouts, meaning Fergie should see even more opportunities than usual. The breakout tight end should easily go over a number that he’s bested by almost 30 yards in two consecutive weeks. 

MORE: Win BIG with SuperDraft! Get a free $10 deposit when you use promo code “TSN”!

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings at Bengals — OVER 53.5 receiving yards (Piva)

Hockenson remains one of the main focal points of the Vikings’ offensive attack, with or without Justin Jefferson (all signs point to J-Jettas playing). With Alexander Mattison banged up and set to miss this one with an ankle injury, the stud tight end might be even more busy than usual (he has seen 116 targets in 13 games, good for 8.9 per game). 

Even better, the Bengals have been abysmal against opposing tight ends all season, surrendering 71.9 yards per game to the position. Just look at the damage TEs have inflicted on Cincy since Week 8:

Wk (Opp) Player Catches – Yards
8 (SF) George Kittle 9 -149 
9 (BUF) Dalton Kincaid 10 – 81
10 (HOU) Dalton Schultz 4 – 71
11 (BAL) Mark Andrews (hurt) 2 – 23
12 (PIT) Pat Freiermuth 9 – 120
13 (JAX) Evan Engram 9 – 82
14 (IND) Will Mallory 5 – 46
AVG Seven players: 6.8 RPG – 81.7 YPG

That’s some mouth-watering stuff if you’re a Hockenson owner in fantasy or a Hock investor in the prop market. We’re all-in on the burly tight end this weekend in what should be a more fortuitous weekend now that the Josh Dobbs experiment has ended. Nick Mullens looked Hock’s way plenty once he replaced Dobbs against Vegas, and the Vikes ended up with a W. Here’s hoping their connection continues and they nab us a W on Saturday! 

D’Andre Swift, RB, Eagles at Seahawks — OVER 58.5 rushing yards (Iyer)

We’re marrying a different Swift and a different Kelce this week (sorry, Tony Romo). Eagles fans will get their wish of the team running the ball in an either even or positive game script in Seattle against a run defense that’s been absolutely reeling since midseason. Swift doesn’t catch many passes, so he needs to get it done on the ground and he can get there, boosted by a few nice chunk runs living up to his last name.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons @ Panthers — OVER 62.5 rushing yards (Musial)

Bijan’s coming off two games in which he averaged fewer than 3.5 yards per carry on 28 rushes, but his efficiency should spike against a porous Panthers run defense. Carolina has been the least efficient run D by a wide margin relative to its rush EPA numbers, and a potential positive game script gives Bijan a strong chance for 15-plus carries. Although he totaled just 10 carries in Atlanta’s Week 1 win over Carolina, Bijan averaged 5.6 yards per rush — a good sign for his odds of reaching 63-plus rushing yards this time around.

Puka Nacua, WR, Rams vs. Commanders — OVER 66.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)

Despite the return of Cooper Kupp, the rookie Nacua isn’t going anywhere in this Rams passing attack. Since Matthew Stafford took over in 2021, Kupp averaged around 11.1 targets a game through the first two seasons. That number has ticked down to around 7.6 this year, indicating that Nacua’s emergence has signaled almost a changing of the guard.

The rookie is still seeing 8.3 targets a game and has gone over this number in three of the Rams’ past four games. Against a weak Commanders defense that continues to get shredded by WRs — allowing the most yards to the position (198.5) — Nacua’s Hollywood story should continue in a big way. 

DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks vs. Eagles — OVER 62.5 receiving yards (Piva)

Over the past five weeks, Metcalf has finally looked healthy again. Despite Seattle having to pivot from the banged-up Geno Smith to Drew Lock multiple times, D.K. has dominated like only D.K. can dominate. 

During his sizzling five-game stretch, Metcalf has averaged 4.5 catches, 82 receiving yards, and one TD per game. Now he draws a home game against an Eagles squad that has surrendered the most per-game catches (15.8) and receiving yards (193.8) to wideouts on the season. Lock this in and fade the oft-inconsistent Tyler Lockett while you’re at it. 

David Montgomery, RB, Lions vs. Broncos  — OVER 65.5 rushing yards (Iyer)

This number seems far too low based on Montgomery and Jahmyr being able to smash the best matchup for running backs in fantasy. The Broncos have given up an average of 144 rushing yards per game, easily the worst mark in the league. Monty and Gibbs will take turns getting bursts — and they should split the workload close to 50-50 — as Detroit recommits to the run and takes pressure off Jared Goff in a tough must-win matchup.

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys @ Bills — UNDER 279.5 passing yards (Musial)

Dak’s passing yards OVERs have been money this season, as the MVP candidate has gone OVER in nine of 13 games. However, relatively speaking, we’re expecting a down game from the Cowboys’ offense in Buffalo this week. On top of going against a stout Bills defensive line, the forecasts in Buffalo on Sunday call for rain, which likely hinders Rayne Dakota’s chances of reaching 280-plus passing yards.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers @ Cardinals — OVER 66.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)

Aiyuk can be a hit-or-miss receiver in what is a deep San Francisco offense. But the matchup this week is one that he’s already knocked out of the park once, collecting six catches for 148 yards against the Cardinals way back in Week 4.

Plenty has changed since then, but Aiyuk’s combination of speed and route-running remains a constant. This is a leaky Arizona secondary that has been susceptible to big plays. The Niners have their sights set on the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and this red-hot passing attack isn’t slowing down anytime soon. Aiyuk should be heavily involved once again. 

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