Super Bowl 2024 odds and predictions: Dolphins, Cowboys among favorites to fade; Bills, Lions are longshots to bet

Seven of the eight divisional races are still up for grabs, with only three weeks remaining in the 2023 NFL regular season. The chase to earn a wild-card playoff berth is as heated as possible.

In total, 26 of the 32 NFL teams are still alive for the postseason. Some teams have favorable Super Bowl 2024 odds at the top betting sites across the US. Others appear overvalued.

Super Bowl 58 odds

We’ve identified three Super Bowl favorites to fade and four longshot bets to grab. 

Teams with short Super Bowl 2024 odds to avoid

The Dolphins, Cowboys and Browns have turned heads at various times this season, but their odds are too shot for us to get involved. 

Miami Dolphins’ odds to win Super Bowl 2024 ()

Since Miami walloped the Denver Broncos 70-20 in Week 3, fans have flocked to the Dolphins’ bandwagon. Their preseason Super Bowl 2024 odds shrunk from +2500 to +1000 after Week 3, and that number is even shorter as Miami sits at 10-4.

The Dolphins have the league’s top-ranked offense behind QB Tua Tagovailoa and speedy WR Tyreek Hill. RB Raheem Mostert is third in rushing yards and has an NFL-best 18 rushing TDs.

However, the elite offensive production hasn’t been there against top foes. Miami is 0-3 against teams with a winning record and has been outgained by 42 yards an outing. Miami has outgained opponents with losing records by an average of 153 yards per game. 

Their 28-27 loss to Tennessee in Week 14 was a real doozy, as Miami blew a 14-point lead in four minutes of game action.

Now Miami faces three straight winning teams, giving the Dolphins the most difficult closing schedule in the league, according to Tankathon.com.

Their first test is a home game against Dallas, followed by a trip to the NFL’s best team in San Francisco (11-3). finally a home game with Buffalo (8-6) to close out the season.

In that finale, the Dolphins will take on a Bills team that whipped them 48-20 in Week 4. Thus, if the Dolphins slip against the Cowboys and/or the 49ers, a loss to the Bills would relegate Miami to wild-card status if the Bills win out.

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Dallas Cowboys’ odds to win Super Bowl 2024 ()

Like the Dolphins, the Cowboys currently stand atop their division with a 10-4 mark, which helps account for their relatively short odds.

Dallas holds the tiebreaker edge over Philadelphia, but the Cowboys’ schedule is much more difficult than what the Eagles will face.

Dallas is the only first-place team with a losing road record (3-4). They go to Miami, then face Detroit at home. Finally, Dallas plays a presumably soft foe at Washington to close the season. 

However, in last year’s finale, Dallas also played the Commanders in an important game on the road. They were 26-6 losers as a 7.5-point favorite.

Information: Best NFL betting sites

Cleveland Browns’ odds to win Super Bowl 2024 ()

On the surface, a team with a 9-5 record doesn’t usually have odds this long. Especially when the squad boasts a defense yielding only 261.1 yards a game, the best rate for any team that past 14 seasons.

But these odds should be even longer for a team operating with a QB picked up off the discard heap a month ago, without its top running back (Nick Chubb, IR) and with both offensive tackles on injured reserve.

Quarterback Joe Flacco, the team’s fourth starter at the position this season, has averaged 313 passing yards in his three starts, but he’s also had five interceptions and fumbled twice, losing one.

Cleveland’s remaining games aren’t exactly easy wins. They’ll be challenged with road matchups against fellow playoff hopefuls in Houston and Cincinnati.

Super Bowl longshot odds for bettors to consider

Now for clubs with favorable longshot odds, even if they aren’t yet in the playoff picture.

Buffalo Bills’ odds to win Super Bowl 2024 ()

Bettors interested in the 8-6 Buffalo Bills had better wager mega-pronto before the odds shorten.

Three weeks ago, in the wake of their agonizing overtime loss in Philadelphia, Buffalo’s odds were +5000 at DraftKings. After knocking off Kansas City at Arrowhead and the routing in Dallas last week, fans have loaded up on the Bills.

BetMGM PR manager John Ewing revealed that the Bills have the second-highest handle to win the Super Bowl at 10%, behind San Francisco (18.1%) and just ahead of Philadelphia (9.1%).

It’s not just the Bills’ recent victories that have influenced bettors. Buffalo’s remaining schedule is favorable with games at the LA Chargers and home vs. New England before its possible division-title showdown with Miami.

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Detroit Lions’ odds to win Super Bowl 2024 ()

Detroit has a three-game lead in the NFC North and is virtually assured of securing the conference’s No. 2 or 3 seed. At 10-4, Detroit’s only motivation is to rack up as many wins as possible without suffering injuries.

The Lions, therefore, could well enter the last week of the season with little to play before and rest some of the weary before their wild-card game.

According to Ewing, when it comes to betting on who will reach the Super Bowl from the NFC, Detroit has 40.5% of the handle, which makes it the biggest liability to the sportsbook on that chart.

Detroit’s Super odds are extremely generous, considering the team’s strength.

Kansas City Chiefs’ odds to win Super Bowl 2024 ()

Even though the 9-5 Kansas City Chiefs have lost four of their past seven games, their odds remain relatively short. But these odds aren’t bad compared with what they have been in past years.

Put some of the blame for their recent troubles on the scheduling injustices they’ve faced the past four weeks.

In that span, the Chiefs have traveled to Las Vegas on short rest (a come-from-behind win), lost in Green Bay to a Packers team coming off a Thursday game, lost against a Buffalo team off a bye, and last week taking on New England, and won, on the road, with the Patriots also having a pseudo-bye after playing the previous Thursday.

There was the dropped pass in the end zone late in a loss to Philadelphia by WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and two weeks ago, the knucklehead offsides penalty against WR Kadarius Toney that wiped out a TD that would have beaten the Bills.

The return of  RB Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) will help the offense get back on track.

Denver Broncos’ odds to win Super Bowl 2024 ()

The Denver Broncos’ odds were listed at +20000 before NFL Week 15, so futures bettors have already been pounding coach Sean Payton’s team despite Denver being one game behind in the wild-card chase. At 7-7, Denver is our biggest longshot play.

The Broncos certainly can’t be expected to overtake Kansas City in the AFC West, currently trailing by two games. But their schedule (home with New England and the LA Chargers at Las Vegas) is tied for the second-easiest in the league, giving them a solid chance to finish 10-7. 

If Payton and QB Russell Wilson become friends again, there’s a chance- a remote chance- that they can make a run for the Super Bowl title. It’s worth a flier, especially for Broncos backers who could hedge their bets if Denver goes deep into the postseason.

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