NFL DFS picks Week 16: Best sleepers, value players for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft lineups

If you’re reading this just a few days after getting eliminated from the fantasy football playoffs, please accept our sympathies. As a Dak owner, I certainly understand your plight and invite you to vent to me on Twitter. However, a good way of getting over season-long heartbreak is to start fresh with an NFL DFS lineup for the Week 16 Sunday main slate. As always, we hold the key to daily fantasy success: identifying the cheapest sleepers and highest-ceiling value plays so you can afford more studs without rostering any duds.

Every Tuesday, we scour DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for the most affordable, under-the-radar, and overlooked players who will set you apart from the DFS pack. By finding above-average production at modest prices, we allow ourselves plenty of remaining budget to afford elite weekly performers at other roster spots. When our studs and our sleepers hit, we usually win DFS tournament cash.

We do all the leg work for you. We pore over the player pool, like my kids searching for Paw Patrol toys at Target. Then we handpick the most promising sleepers and tell you why they’re worth adding to your next DFS squad. All you have to do is choose your favorites — that way you have plenty of time to knock out your Christmas checklist (or, even better, hibernate in front of the fire with some spiked egg nog). 

WEEK 16 FANTASY ADVICE:
Sleepers | Busts | Projections | Start-sit

Achieving daily fantasy success requires the due diligence of analyzing stats both season-long and recent, diving deeper into matchups, exploring the injury front, and comparing pricing to distinguish the vales from the fades. If it was easy, everyone would be rich off DFS. The true experts know that we can’t afford a Tyreek Hill ($9,600 on DK) without investing in the occasional Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,500).

We have enjoyed consistent success with our DFS sleepers and values all season. Each Tuesday, we share a big list of our hits from the previous week. — with each hit typically netting at least 16-22 fantasy points. Throughout the year, we’ve been consistently ahead of the game on breakouts like Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and Tank Dell, among many others.

Take a look at our collection of hits from last week:

Pos. Player Wk. 15 Game DK Price Pts
QB Brock Purdy 49ers at Cardinals $6,800 25.7
QB Joe Flacco Browns vs. Bears $5,500 22.9
QB Derek Carr Saints vs. Giants $5,800 20.3
QB Jordan Love Packers vs. Buccaneers $6,200 18.7
QB Matthew Stafford Rams vs. Commanders $6,000 18.5
RB Devin Singletary Texans at Titans $5,400 24.0
RB Jerick McKinnon Chiefs at Patriots $5,100 16.2
WR Rashee Rice Chiefs at Patriots $6,100 24.1
WR Amari Cooper Browns vs. Bears $6,000 23.9
WR Demarcus Robinson Rams vs. Commanders $3,600 14.7
TE David Njoku Browns vs. Bears $4,700 29.4
TE Tucker Kraft Packers vs. Buccaneers $3,000 15.7
DST Chicago Bears at Browns $3,300 17.0

To put it bluntly, we crushed it last week. Seven of our hits put up between 20 and 30 DK points, including three of our QBs. We had 13 hits in all, averaging a robust 20.9 points per game while costing us just under $5,200 per player. If you plugged even one or two of these affordable sleepers into DFS lineups last week, you more than likely made at least some money in your tournaments.

Win BIG with SuperDraft! Get a free $10 deposit when you use promo code “TSN”!

Let’s shower, rinse, repeat! As we have all season, we’re incorporating SuperDraft into our weekly DFS column. For those unfamiliar, SuperDraft’s DFS scoring involves point multipliers as opposed to traditional salary-capped or tiered contests. A winning lineup will likely feature a strong mix of stud fantasy contributors with 1x-2x boosts, as well as matchup-based sleepers with larger multipliers. Each player is assigned a scoring multiplier based on their value as determined by SuperDraft. So, the sleepers who carry lower salaries in DK/FD have higher boosts on SD. The best part: SuperDraft users can roster any player with no restrictions.

MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS: How to play SuperDraft

Now, to our picks. Below we will reveal our Week 16 DFS sleepers and values at each position. Good luck, have fun, and have a fantastic holiday with your loved ones!

All player values are from DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. All stats are from NFL.com and Pro Football Reference.

NFL DFS Picks Week 16: QB sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers vs. Jaguars (DK: $6,800 | FD: $7,300 | SD: 1.3x)

Mayfield went Buc-wild last week against the Packers at Lambeau Field, completing 22-of-28 passes for 381 yards and four TDs. Now he gets to face a porous Jaguars secondary that has surrendered the second-most DK points and third-most FD points to QBs this season. We also don’t have to worry much about weather in Tampa, a huge plus at this time of year. Put the Baker on your nice list and root for him to cook up another big day.

Other solid Week 16 values: Gardner Minshew, Colts at Falcons (DK: $5,900 | FD: $6,800 | SD: 1.3x); Geno Smith, Seahawks at Titans (DK: $5,800 | FD: $6,600 | SD: 1.3x); Joe Flacco, Browns at Texans (DK: $5,500 | FD: $7,100 | SD: 1.35x)

WEEK 16 STANDARD RANKINGS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers

NFL DFS Picks Week 16: RB sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

Aaron Jones, Packers at Panthers (DK: $6,400 | FD: $6,700 | SD: 1.15x)

We usually don’t feature backs with prices this high, but we would draft Jones up to $7,000 this weekend. The rust should be kicked off his wheels since the knee injury that sidelined him from Weeks 12 through 14, running mate AJ Dillon has a broken thumb, and the Panthers have surrendered the fourth-most DK points to RBs this season. Jordan Love won’t need to do much this weekend to get a victory over Carolina. While it’s not saying much, this has the potential to be the best game of the season for Jones. Stuff your DFS stockings with Jones if you want a joyous Christmas weekend. 

James Conner, Cardinals at Bears (DK: $5,900 | FD: $6,500 | SD: 1.2x)

Conner has quietly been very effective over Arizona’s past two games, logging 194 all-purpose yards and three TDs during that span. Now he faces a Bears defense that recently allowed Detroit to rack up 255 rushing yards over a two-game series. Chicago has also surrendered the most receiving yards to RBs this season by far, over 100 more yards than the Chargers at No. 2. Matt Eberflus’s squad has also given up five receiving TDs to RBs, second-most in the NFL. Conner should dash and dance this Sunday, guiding your DFS sleigh to some tournament winnings. 

More solid Week 16 RB values: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks at Titans (DK: $6,200 | FD: $6,800 | SD: 1.15x); Breece Hall, Jets vs. Commanders (DK: $6,100 | FD: $7,400 | SD: 1.2x); Chuba Hubbard, Panthers vs. Packers (DK: $5,700 | FD: $6,400 | SD: 1.25x)

WEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers

NFL DFS Picks Week 16: WR sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

Jordan Addison, Vikings vs. Lions (DK: $6,000 | FD: $7,300 | SD: 1.35x)

Week 15 saw Addison benefit in a major way from being opposite Justin Jefferson for a full game for the first time since early October. The rookie wideout caught all six of his targets for 111 yards and two TDs, good for a whopping 32.1 DK points. We don’t quite expect a repeat of that insane performance, but we also like his floor and ceiling against a Lions defense that has looked pretty bad outside of its big win over Denver last week. Detroit has surrendered 231.5 passing yards per game since Week 10 and now ranks among the 10 most generous teams to wideouts in the NFL. Dan Campbell’s squad will likely be focusing on stopping J-Jettas and former Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson, so Addison could be one of the best value gifts of our holiday weekend.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks @ Titans (DK: $4,500 | FD: $5,900 | SD: 1.55x)

No matter who suits up for Seattle, JSN has turned into a trustworthy WR3 or flex at this stage of his rookie campaign. He caught an incredible game-winning touchdown on Monday Night Football in Week 15, he’s averaging five catches per game over the past three weeks, and he has three games with 62-plus receiving yards since Week 7. The man they call JAX should go HAM against the Titans’ porous secondary, which ranks among the eight most generous defenses to fantasy wideouts this season.

More solid Week 16 WR values: Chris Godwin, Buccaneers vs. Jaguars (DK: $6,200 | FD: $6,900 | SD: 1.35x); DeAndre Hopkins, Titans vs. Seahawks (DK: $6,100 | FD: $7,100 | SD: 1.35x); Garrett Wilson, Jets vs. Commanders (DK: $5,800 | FD: $7,000 | SD: 1.4x)

WEEK 16 DFS:
DK lineup | FD lineup | Best stacks

NFL DFS Picks Week 16: TE sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

David Njoku, Browns at Texans (DK: $5,300 | FD: $6,600 | SD: 1.15x)

There doesn’t appear to be much room for tight end variance on the NFL’s main slate this weekend, so we’re rolling with Njoku as our featured TE for the third straight week. Hey, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it — just like the North Pole being the site of Santa’s trusty headquarters for generations. Njoku caught six-of-eight targets for 91 yards and two TDs in Week 14 against the Jags, then followed that up by hauling in 10-of-14 targets for 101 yards and a TD last week against the Bears. The Texans rank among the eight most generous defenses to TEs in fantasy, so we’re as big into Njoku this Christmas Eve as my daughter is into “Frozen” every day of our lives. 

More solid Week 16 TE values: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys at Dolphins (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,000 | SD: 1.2x); Cade Otton, Bucs vs. Jaguars (DK: $3,300 | FD: $5,200 | SD: 1.6x)

NFL DFS Picks Week 16: D/ST sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel

New York Jets vs. Commanders (DK: $3,100 | FD: $5,000)

The Jets’ offense has been an abject failure all season, but its defense remains one of the best units in the NFL. Gang Green has surrendered the second-fewest passing yards, third-fewest passing TDs, and fifth-lowest red-zone TDs in the NFL, and now Robert Saleh’s squad gets a home game against the mistake-prone and oft-sacked Sam Howell. We’ll be putting some green in our Christmas Eve lineups this weekend, hopefully leading to some DFS green in our pockets.

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