Anthony Joshua vs. Otto Wallin odds, betting trends, predictions, expert picks for 2023 boxing fight

Anthony Joshua returns to Saudi Arabia to headline a super card against Otto Wallin on December 23. The fight and undercard action airs on DAZN PPV. 

An Olympic gold medalist, Joshua is a former two-time unified heavyweight champion. One of England’s top prizefighters, Joshua is finally back on track after losing two in a row against Oleksandr Usyk, beating Jermaine Franklin and Robert Helenius. The 34-year-old looks to go 3-0 in 2023 and prove he is back to the dominant fighter that controlled the division from 2016 to 2019.  

Wallin is looking to cause headlines for the second time in his career. He took WBC heavyweight champion Tyson Fury to the limit in 2019, almost causing an upset. The Swedish fighter is on a six-fight win streak and is just coming off a win against a former champion in Murat Gussiev. Proving he can stop someone who has held gold, can he do the same against Joshua?  

If Joshua wins, he has a date with Deontay Wilder in March. Wilder is also on the card, fighting Joseph Parker. Can Joshua secure his spot on top of the division and halt Wallin’s momentum, or will Wallin continue to be a problem for the heavyweight elite?

WATCH: Anthony Joshua vs. Otto Wallin, live on DAZN

The Sporting News provides insight on how to bet on his matchup. 

Betting odds for Anthony Joshua vs. Otto Wallin

Per Bet MGM, Anthony Joshua is the -350 favorite, while Otto Wallin is the +300 underdog. 

Anthony Joshua vs. Otto Wallin betting trends

Here’s a look into the latest prop bets for method of victory, courtesy of Bet MGM:

  • Joshua via KO/TKO: +150
  • Joshua via decision: +125
  • Wallin via KO/TKO: +800
  • Wallin via decision: +550
  • Draw: +1600

Anthony Joshua vs. Otto Wallin predictions, best bets

Joshua is second in the heavyweight division with an 8.8 +/- rating. He averages 11.9 total shots landed (ranked seventh at the heavyweight level) out of 38.1 average punches thrown per round for a total connect percentage of 31.2%, third amongst active heavyweights. 

When he fought Jermaine Franklin, his first fight since the Usyk series, Joshua landed/threw below the heavyweight average (12.2/39.4 compared to 14.4/44.2 per CompuBox). He landed 37.9% of his power punches. When he knocked out Robert Helenius, Joshua landed 74 of 204 shots (36.3%). 

Will Joshua’s style mesh well against the unpredictable Wallin?

MORE: Anthony Joshua: I’ll leave boxing when I’m at the bottom

David Hayes, a former kickboxing champion coaching in the Team Combat League, the first combat pro sports league featuring male and female fighters, told The Sporting News he sees a decrease in Joshua’s intensity and style. “I feel like he’s trying to be more of a boxer now, and he’s a little more gun-shy since the Andy Ruiz fight. He lost his conviction to become a real finisher like he was before Ruiz.” 

He also called Wallin a wild card in the fight, which could help him, especially with Joshua’s defensive style. Joshua’s opponents land 7.6 punches per round. It is the eighth-highest landed at the heavyweight level. In his last fight against Murat Gassiev, Wallin used his jab to damage the former cruiserweight champion, pressing forward with accurate punches. 

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It isn’t the first time Wallin presented a challenge to a former or current title holder. Not even initially considered to present Tyson Fury with a challenge, Wallin landed 127 punches, the most by a Fury opponent. He averaged eleven punches per round, two more than the average against him. Wallin landed 127 of 334 shots (38%) compared to 179 of 651 for Fury (27.5%), landing 43 jabs. He lost steam towards the end, but a cut to Fury’s eye from the jabs could have ended the fight. 

It is fair to say Joshua hasn’t been the same fighter since before Ruiz, going back to getting dropped against Wladimir Klitschko. Going through multiple coaches doesn’t help with the confidence to believe and stick to a game plan. However, Joshua’s intensity has changed over the last few fights, and we have seen a serious Joshua take charge recently.

MORE: Why AJ didn’t fight Jarrell Miller

Wilder may have a tough fight against Parker, but The Sporting News believes the former will knock Parker out in the later rounds. For Joshua, Wallin presents a tough challenge. He is well-rested compared to Helenius and has better skills than Franklin. He will be a thorn in Joshua’s side through the fight. 

As far as a winner, Joshua may be able to grind out a win. It will be close, and Joshua will be uncomfortable. It is the fight where anything is possible. However, with the Wilder fight and a return to title contention on the line, Joshua may be able to pull this off. 

Sporting News prediction: Joshua via unanimous decision

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