Patriots vs. Broncos Week 16 odds, picks, predictions, expert betting tips for NFL Christmas Eve game

The Patriots will travel to face the Broncos on Christmas Eve night on Sunday (8:15 p.m. ET, NFL Network) looking to play spoiler. New England (3-11) is out of AFC playoff contention, while Denver (7-7) is looking shaky in its rally to chase down a wild-card berth.

This non-traditional holiday game is set up to be a defensive-minded affair, with Super Bowl-winning coaches Bill Belichick and Sean Payton struggling to find consistency from their offenses.

Here’s a betting breakdown and prediction for the matchup between long-time AFC interdivision rivals, far removed from Tom Brady and Peyton Manning at QB

Patriots vs. Broncos odds, spread, over/under

(All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)

Spread: Patriots +6.5 (-110) | Broncos -6.5 (+100)
Over/Under: OVER 34.5 (-110) | UNDER 34.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Patriots +240 | Broncos -305

The Broncos have been near seven-point favorites all week. The Broncos face Bailey Zappe on the road, while Belichick will be prepared for another edition of Russell Wilson. The total reflects that concern.

Should you bet the Broncos against the spread vs. the Patriots?

The good news for the Patriots is that Ezekiel Elliott and Hunter Henry have been their best offensive players of late and the Broncos struggle mightily stopping the run and covering tight ends. That might be the only thing working to some degree for Zappe. Meanwhile, Wilson can give the Patriots a few problems with his mobility and will be OK pivoting no matter what Belichick decides to take away from him.

Spread pick: Broncos -6.5 (-110)

Should you bet the Patriots-Broncos OVER?

The defenses will be up to the task, and there will be a heavy dose of grinding offense. It’s hard to expect a high-scoring game given the elements in Denver and the level of front-pressure and secondary talent. Look for a lot of Ezekiel Eliiott and Javonte Williams in a grounding, pounding game with relatively few plays.

Our Pick: UNDER 34.5 (-110)

Final score prediction: Broncos 20, Patriots 13

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