Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 17: D’Andre Swift, Brandon Aiyuk, Travis Kelce highlight our experts’ picks

As 2023 comes to a close, our group of Sporting News betting experts looks to finish the year in style with 12 of our favorite over/under bets on the SuperDraft player prop market. Nearly 75 percent of the NFL still has something to play for in Week 17 — a higher seed, a divisional title, or a Wild Card berth — so there has never been a better time to capitalize on props.

Every Friday, my colleagues Vinnie Iyer, Nick Musial, Nick Brinkerhoff join me to scour SuperDraft and pinpoint the over/under props that we believe yield the most value. We then provide detailed explanations as to why those props give us the greatest chance of winning, just like our weekly best bets column unveils the top moneyline, spread, and over/under picks.

Each of us typically unveils three over/under props per week — at least a dozen total — from the vast main-slate offerings on SuperDraft. The concept for the column is simple: we research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, handpick the best props, and then deliver them to you.

Along the way, we keep a record of each of our weekly successes and failures — and of course, we reveal our updated season standings. Our motivations are two-fold: (1) beat our colleagues, and (2) help you beat the books. The more we win, the more money our readers make to help offset Christmas gift shopping!

MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft

Take a look at the updated standings after Week 16 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:

Expert Week 16 Overall
Sloan Piva 1-2 27-19
Vinnie Iyer 1-2 24-21
Nick Musial 2-1 23-20
Nick Brinkerhoff 1-2 15-30

Rough weeks for Vinnie, Brinks, and myself, with David Njoku and Christian McCaffrey coming just a few yards away from their receiving yards projections and Josh Allen falling seven yards shy of his passing yards OVER. Money Muse was the leader in the clubhouse, with his Bryce Young and Tyler Boyd OVER bets hitting with ease. Through Week 16, Vinnie, Musial, and myself have a combined score of 74-60 — not too shabby!

Let’s bounce back and finish the year in style with some Week 17 bangers! If you’re not familiar with SuperDraft, check it out! SD’s Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs added to the player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But obviously, the longer the odds, the more difficult it gets to nail down a clean sweep. Research is imperative.

That’s where we come in. Our panel of experts does the leg work, finds the best value, pitches our favorite props, and lets you handle the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be two (3X payout), but sometimes we’ll put a lower stake on a three-prop parlay (6X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).

Let’s get to it. Below we will detail our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for this weekend’s NFL games, with our highest-confidence picks listed first. Good luck, have a safe and happy New Year, and enjoy what should be an entertaining and lucrative Week 17!

MORE: Win BIG with SuperDraft! Get a free $10 deposit when you use promo code “TSN”!

NFL Prop Picks Week 17: Our experts’ favorite SuperDraft bets

D’Andre Swift, RB, Eagles vs. Cardinals — OVER 68.5 rushing yards (Sloan Piva)

The Eagles snapped their three-game losing streak last week against the Giants thanks in large part to 170 rushing yards, 92 of which came from Swift. Now the veteran running back moves from the third-most generous defense to opposing RBs (New York) to the second-most generous (Arizona), with Philly remaining at home. 

We’re not quite sure why SuperDraft set this number so low, but we’ll take it. Swift has hit 70 yards seven times this season, including each of the past two games and four of the past six weeks. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have surrendered 123.4 rushing yards per game to RBs on the season and a whopping 174.5 total rushing yards per game over their past six contests. Smash the OVER and finish the Year of the Swift in style. 

MORE WEEK 16 BETTING: Best Bets | Against the Spread | Moneyline 

Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons @ Bears — OVER 22.5 receiving yards (Vinnie Iyer)

Robinson is an elite receiver and although the Bears have put the clamps down on run defense, especially against power rushing attacks, they are vulnerable to explosive pass-catching backs in coverage. Robinson will need to be heavily involved in the passing game for Atlanta to have any chance of winning a key game. There’s also a chance this can be a big negative game script with the Falcons playing catchup in Chicago, which would only raise the checkdown usage of Robinson for Taylor Heinicke. Besides, this number is way too low.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons @ Bears — OVER 35.5 receiving yards (Nick Musial)

Good luck having success on the ground against a stout Bears defensive front. Even for a run-heavy Falcons team, it’s hard to envision a strong rushing day for Atlanta, putting pressure on Taylor Heinicke’s arm to generate consistent scoring drives. Pitts can take advantage of an exploitable Bears’ coverage unit, yielding some value on a relatively-low yardage prop.

MORE: Win BIG with SuperDraft! Get a free $10 deposit when you use promo code “TSN”!

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers at Commanders — OVER 67.5 receiving yards (Piva)

Aiyuk has been one of the most underrated wideouts in the NFL this season, in large part because San Francisco has been an embarrassment of offensive riches. The fourth-year stud has averaged 85.9 receiving yards per game and a league-leading 18.5 yards per reception, both easily career-highs.

Now Aiyuk faces a Commanders defense that has allowed the most points and yards in the NFL this season, and has surrendered 275 passing yards per game over its past six contests. Aiyuk is a fantastic play this weekend in what should be a bounce-back game for Brock Purdy and the Niners.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs vs. Bengals — OVER 63.5 receiving yards (Iyer)

The Bengals give up a ton of receiving yards to tight ends. Kelce has been either held in check by defensive scheming or phased out from downfield passing from his own team in recent weeks. He’s definitely slowing down a little now at age 34 but he can still take over games when needed and it’s about time for KC to go KISS (keep it simple Super Bowl champs) with its offense with a heavy dose of the running game and steady passes to Patrick Mahomes’ go-to guy all the way through the red zone.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders vs. 49ers — OVER 52.5 receiving yards (Musial)

San Francisco’s coverage unit has shown some leaks of late, ranking 13th in dropback success rate since Week 10. With Washington likely passing at a high clip as nearly two-touchdown underdogs, McLaurin’s in line for a steady dose of targets from newly-appointed QB1 Jacoby Brissett. Back in Week 15 when Brissett first took over for an ineffective Sam Howell, McLaurin racked up 93 receiving yards as he figures to again key in on his top pass-catcher.

Chris Olave, WR, Saints at Buccaneers — OVER 66.5 receiving yards (Piva)

Olave has been one of the only consistent bright spot in a passing game that has often been otherwise dismal, and we’re betting his OVER with confidence against a very beatable Buccaneers secondary. No defense has surrendered more receiving yards per game than the Bucs (194.9), and Olave has hauled in between 94 and 123 yards in four of New Orleans’ past five games, so we’re all-in on this one. 

Ty Chandler, RB, Vikings vs. Packers  — OVER 61.5 rushing yards (Iyer)

Chandler has looked better than Alexander Mattison taking over the backfield of late thanks to Mattison’s ankle injury.  The Packers are hemorrhaging yardage everywhere, giving up big pass plays and they remain awful against the run. They give up on average more than 135.8 rushing yards per game, ranking them No. 30 in the NFL. With Jaren Hall starting, the Vikings will need to lean more on the running game to win this key home game to keep NFC wild-card hopes alive.

Justice Hill, RB, Ravens vs. Dolphins — OVER 29.5 rushing yards (Musial)

Hill ended up out snapping and out touching Gus Edwards, but his increased usage hasn’t been accounted for in the prop market. Despite this, Edwards still has a higher rushing yardage prop at 40.5 compared to Hill’s 29.5. With Hill playing on 62 percent of snaps last week, we’d much rather bet him at a decreased total over Edwards. Although Miami’s run defense has improved recently, Hill’s usage spike makes totaling 30-plus rushing yards quite achievable.

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