Sunderland vs Newcastle prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for FA Cup derby match

This FA Cup has handed fans the first Tyne-Wear derby in nearly eight years as Newcastle visit local rivals Sunderland in the third round of the 2023/24 tournament.

These two clubs have not met since Sunderland were relegated from the Premier League in 2016, but will renew their ferocious rivalry at the Stadium of Light, handed an early lone kickoff to signify the match’s importance.

It will mark the 143rd all-time meeting between the two sides, including the ninth in the FA Cup, and first in this competition since 1956.

Both sides have been looking forward to this meeting since it was first drawn. Newcastle supporters will be thrilled to finally have the chance to put an end to Sunderland’s 11-match unbeaten streak in this rivalry, having avoided defeat since a 1-0 home loss back in 2011. Sunderland fans, meanwhile, will know victory in a match such as this could seriously bolster their league efforts, where they sit sixth, pushing for a playoff spot.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Sunderland vs Newcastle and bet FA Cup matches

Sunderland vs Newcastle prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Sunderland (+330)
  • Score prediction: Sunderland 2-1 Newcastle

This match is extremely difficult to predict. Newcastle are in poor form and beset by injuries throughout the squad, while lower-league opponents Sunderland are in good form but concede goals at a high rate.

In rivalry games like this, anything can happen, especially with both teams trending in opposite direction form-wise. However, while the draw is tempting, Sunderland should use home field advantage to tilt the match in their favour, and their better defensive form will be key. There should be twists and turns in this 90-minute saga, and if you don’t feel confident in taking Sunderland to win outright you can play the double chance at +110, but we’ll take the value on a 90-minute result.

  DraftKings
(USA)
Sunderland win
(90 mins)
+330
Draw
(90 mins)
+310
Newcastle win
(90 mins)
-140
Both teams
to score Y/N
-160 / +115
Over / Under
2.5 goals
+100 / -140
Newcastle
to advance
-265
(FanDuel)
Sunderland
to advance
+210
(FanDuel)

Sunderland vs Newcastle match facts

  • Date: Saturday, Jan. 6, 2024
  • Kickoff Time: 12:45 p.m. local (7:45 a.m. ET / 4:45 a.m. PT)
  • Location: Stadium of Light (Sunderland, England)
  • Referee: Craig Pawson, VAR: None*
  • Last meeting: Newcastle 1-1 Sunderland (Mar. 20, 2016 | Premier League)

*VAR is only in use in the FA Cup at Premier League grounds, meaning matches played at clubs from lower leagues will not have access to VAR review.

Sunderland vs Newcastle best bet

Both teams have struggled defensively this season, and goals should flow as the two sides look to punish their longtime rivals. Newcastle have fallen apart at the back in the last month, shipping four to Liverpool, three to Nottingham Forest, and four to Tottenham across December.

Sunderland are improved at the back, keeping clean sheets against top-half Championship sides in Leeds and Hull City, but still have a Premier League front line to deal with. Newcastle have struggled to finish chances in recent weeks, but with Alexander Isak bagging goals in two straight matches, he has good form to lean on.

Sunderland vs Newcastle prop bet

  • Pick: Over 5.5 total cards
  • Odds: -110 (FanDuel)

This is a very high bar to clear, but in a rivalry match with the road side in a bad run of form and thought to possibly be under pressure against a lower league opponent, both clubs will be pushing to match the other’s intensity. The Magpies are near the top of the Premier League in bookings, despite the fact that they aren’t persistent foulers.

From a Sunderland perspective, they aren’t in the top half of Championship sides when it comes to discipline, but they’re facing a Newcastle side that’s fifth in the Premier League in drawing yellow cards. Even in defeat, they do well to force opponents into bad situations, seeing five Liverpool players booked last time out and three Nottingham Forest players booked before that.

Referee Craig Pawson is in the thick of the pack when it comes to yellow cards, but wasn’t shy last time he officiated a Newcastle match, showing eight total bookings between the two sides back in August when the Magpies topped Brentford 1-0 at home.

Sunderland vs Newcastle live stream, TV channel

Region TV channel Streaming
USA  — ESPN+
Canada Sportsnet Sportsnet Now
UK ITV 1, STV Scotland IVTX, STV Player

The broadcast rights for the 2023/24 FA Cup in the United States are owned by ESPN, with every game across the competition shown on ESPN+.

In Canada, Sportsnet hold the broadcast rights to the FA Cup, with all matches spread across the company’s family of networks as well as their streaming service Sportsnet Now.

In the UK, the FA Cup rights are owned by ITV and BBC. This match will be broadcast in much of the UK on ITV 1, while STV will show the game in Scotland.

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