Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Spanish Super Cup semifinal

Real Madrid search for revenge from their only defeat of the season as they meet hated rivals Atletico Madrid in the semifinals of the Supercopa de Espana in Saudi Arabia.

Los Blancos fell 3-1 at Atleti back in September in La Liga play, their only loss of the campaign across all competitions. That defeat feels like ages ago, as Real Madrid now lead the domestic title race and rattled off six consecutive victories in the Champions League group stage.

Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, have slumped to fifth in the league table, fighting just to maintain their Champions League standing at all. They have not won the Supercopa since 2014, as Real Madrid and Barcelona dominate the competition.

With a spot in the Super Cup final on the line, where either Barcelona or Osasuna await, both teams will know that the additional Madrid derby fire will give this match some extra juice.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds and bet Supercopa de Espana matches

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Real Madrid (+100)
  • Score prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 Atletico Madrid

Anything can happen in a rivalry match such as this, as proved true in September. Yet anytime you get the clearly better side at plus moneyline odds, you take it. Real Madrid are clearly the better team, and with Vincius Jr back healthy, they are in exceptional form.

Atletico Madrid have struggled mightily in recent months to maintain Diego Simeone’s reputation as a defensive wizard, and Los Blancos have the firepower to punish Atleti’s increased propensity for defensive mistakes.

  DraftKings
(USA)
Real Madrid
win (90 mins)
+100
Draw
(90 mins)
+250
Atletico Madrid
win (90 mins)
+245
Both teams
to score Y/N
-135 / +100
Over / Under
2.5 goals
+100 / -140
Real Madrid
to advance
-104
Atletico Madrid
to advance
-118

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid match facts

  • Date: Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024
  • Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (2 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. PT)
  • Location: King Saud University Stadium (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)
  • Referee: Javier Alberola
  • Last meeting: Atletico Madrid 3-1 Real Madrid (Sep. 24, 2023 | La Liga)

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid best bet

  • Pick: Real Madrid over 2.5 goals
  • Odds: +340 (DraftKings)

A team in great attacking form against a team in poor defensive form — it’s a recipe for disaster. Diego Simeone’s side looked exposed across the 90 minutes of their recent tilt against title contenders Girona, especially in the first half. Meanwhile, while Real Madrid don’t create loads of chances, they are finishing at an otherworldly level, turning 33.59 xG (fourth-best in La Liga) into 36.74 xGOT and 40 goals.

To make matters worse, Jan Oblak is having one of the worst seasons of his illustrious career in goal. The Atletico Madrid shot-stopper has registered a -2.8 goal/xGOTA differential, which is third-worst in the Spanish top flight.

You can get Madrid to hit over 1.5 goals at +100 which feels like a lock, but for the added value in a third Los Blancos goal, it’s too good to pass up.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prop bet

  • Pick: Highest scoring half — 1H
  • Odds: +200 (DraftKings)

It’s entirely possible that this rivalry match could go down to the wire, but after watching Atletico Madrid and Girona go gangbusters in the first half over the weekend, it’s hard to look at this match any different.

Across the whole of the season, from a defensive perspective, both these teams concede more chances in the first half (11.67 xG for Atletico Madrid, 10.57 xG for Real Madrid) than the second half (10.78 for Atletico Madrid, 8.08 for Real Madrid), and in a sport where the norm is for that disparity to be skewed towards the second half, any slight variation in favour of the first half is notable.

To further that point, there’s a notable statistical oddity for Real Madrid defensively — they have weirdly conceded nearly half (five of 11) of their league goals this year in the first 15 minutes of matches.

From an attacking perspective, both teams have scored more second-half goals than first-half goals, but only by a thin margin, matching regular norms of the game. Real Madrid will have seen the film of Girona’s success against Atletico out of the games, and know their opponent is there for the taking.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid live stream, TV channel

  TV channel Streaming
USA ESPN2, ESPN Deportes Fubo USA, ESPN+, WatchESPN
Canada  —  —
UK  —  —

In the United States, ESPN owns the broadcast rights to the Supercopa de Espana, just as they own the rights to the Spanish league. All matches will be shown on their premium streaming service ESPN+.

In addition, this semifinal Madrid derby on neutral ground has been selected for television broadcast, with ESPN airing an English-language broadcast on ESPN2 as well as a Spanish-language broadcast on ESPN Deportes. Both channels are available to stream on Fubo.

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