NFL playoff player prop bets: Kelce a surprising longshot in receiving yards market

Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb, who finished second in the NFL in receiving yards in the 2023 regular season and first with most receptions, is the overwhelming favorite to top the receiving yardage chart in the playoffs according to odds listed at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Unless you’re a Cowboys fan, the reward probably isn’t worth the risk on a player listed at +200.

Then there’s Miami’s Tyreek Hill, who was No. 1 in receiving yards during the season but is only sixth on the oddsboard, down from fourth on Thursday. That has much to do with concern about his quad injury and the plunging temperatures in Kansas City, where Miami plays Saturday night as the sixth seed.

For receivers, just like running backs and quarterbacks, a player must perform for a team that goes deep into the playoffs to be atop the yardage chart.

Over the past 20 years, only one receiver finished with the most yards despite not playing three or more games  —  Green Bay’s Davante Adams in 2019 with 17 receptions from QB Aaron Rodgers for 298 yards. 

Speaking of Rodgers, the top receiver in yards has often teamed with a passer with an NFL MVP award or two on his resume.  

Nine times in the past 10 years, that was the case — four times with QB Tom Brady, twice with Patrick Mahomes, and once each with Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Cam Newton.

NFL playoff receiving odds & props: Lamb, St. Brown, Diggs are postseason favorites

FanDuel Sportsbook offers specific NFL player props for this postseason, and one of the popular offerings is who will lead the playoffs in receiving yards.

Here are the top NFL playoff receiving yards odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • CeeDee Lamb, DAL: +200
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET: +900
  • Stefon Diggs, BUF: +1000
  • Brandon Aiyuk, SF: +1000
  • Rashee Rice, KC: +1200
  • Tyreek Hill, MIA: +1400
  • Travis Kelce, KC: +1600
  • A.J. Brown, PHI: +1800
  • Deebo Samuel, SF: +1800
  • Amari Cooper, CLE: +2000
  • Puka Nacua, LAR: +2500
  • Zay Flowers, BAL: +3000
  • Nico Collins, HOU: +3000
  • Cooper Kupp, LAR: +4000

More NFL: NFL playoff rushing leader odds | NFL playoff passing leader odds

Our NFL postseason receiving leader best bets: St. Brown, Diggs, Kelce are player props to consider

Here are three WRs to consider as you handicap the playoff receiving yard leader prop market.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

Undoubtedly, St. Brown is the favorite receiver of Detroit QB Jared Goff, with exactly 100 more targets than any other Lions WR.

Of course, Goff hasn’t won any MVP award yet, but he did throw for the second most yards this season and guided Detroit to a 12-5 record and the NFC North title.

St. Brown, who was publicly miffed at not being voted to the NFC Pro Bowl squad, has had nine games of 100-plus yards and averages more than 10 targets a game. And he now could see more passes than usual come his way if star tight end T.J. Hockenson can’t play because of a knee injury suffered last week against Minnesota.

And helping his chances is that he was second in the league in yards after the catch.

The gamble inside the gamble will be if the Lions, as a third seed, can get to the NFC title game and give St. Brown at least three chances to line up.

Detroit is guaranteed only one home game, but at least if the second round involves a game in Dallas against the second-seeded Cowboys, it will be played indoors in perfect passing weather.

Wild card action: Rams vs Lions odds, props, predictions 

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills

Diggs, who just completed his sixth straight 1,000-yard receiving season and has been the Bills’ top receiving threat the past four years, has been under the radar since new offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over play-calling duties at midseason.

Buffalo has now been accenting the running game, which had played a role in Diggs not having a 100-yard game since Week 6 when his streak of four straight 100-yard games ended.

The outspoken receiver will surely let the bosses — and star QB Josh Allen — know he’s out there. And with Buffalo as the No. 2 seed in the AFC and the third favorite on oddsboards to win the Super Bowl, there’s a good chance he could wind up playing in four games.

He’d be tough to beat out if that’s the case.

Read: How to bet on the NFL | NFL prop bets 

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

At least lately, the veteran tight end is having a down year, but at these odds (+1600), he’s hard to ignore. With the problems that Mahomes and the third-seeded Chiefs have had with drops by wide receivers, Kelce should see a considerable number of targets his way.

Bettors who pulled the trigger on this prop Thursday got him for +2000.

In recent seasons, Kelce has been the favorite target of Mahomes in these clutch games, which has enabled him to be the playoff yardage leader in the 2020 and 2022 seasons.

Throw in the cold weather, and Kelce’s tendency to run short crossing routes could become extra popular.

The large questions regarding KC’s chances to advance past the second round when the Chiefs are expected to play in Buffalo. That’s what’s helping to keep his odds rather lofty.

(That’s it. No Taylor Swift comments to insert).

Information: Best NFL betting bonuses | Rams vs. Lions odds, props

NFL playoff receiving odds to fade: Hill, Brown, Kittle

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

There are a handful of reasons the league’s receiving champ doesn’t warrant much consideration in the postseason.

First, as a player on a sixth-seeded team, chances are he’ll likely play only two games at most. Even if the Dolphins upset the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs in KC, next up would likely be the top-seeded Ravens in Baltimore in the divisional round. That’s the team that bashed Miami 56-19 in Week 17.

Of course, there’s the weather. In Saturday’s game, the temperature is forecast to be near zero, with the wind chill reaching minus 20 degrees — or colder. Staying warm will be one of his top priorities.

That’s how it was for Dallas’ Bob Hayes in the famous 1967 Ice Bowl in Green Bay. He often jogged up and down the field with his hands tucked in his pants to keep his fingers toasty.

One more thing: In Hill’s first 13 games, he had 100 yards receiving eight times. But then came an ankle injury, and after sitting out a game, he didn’t hit 100 in his final three appearances. And now he’s even got that issue with his quad that cropped up in the season finale.

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

This guy surely would have been the favorite to top the postseason charts based on what he did in the first half of the season. That’s when he had six straight outings with at least 127 receiving yards in Weeks 3-8.

But then, poof! Over his final nine games, he averaged only 46 receiving yards a game, and not coincidentally, the bottom soon dropped out for the Eagles’ division title hopes as they lost five of their final six games to blow a 2.5-game lead in the NFC East.

The good news this weekend is that he’ll get to play at Tampa Bay against a Bucs team that yielded 137 yards to him in Week 3 in a 25-11 Philadelphia triumph.

The bad news is that he’s listed as questionable with a knee injury suffered last week.

Information: Best NFL betting bonuses

George Kittle, TE San Francisco 49ers

The popular 49ers tight end entered Friday tied for 14th on the oddsboards for the top-seeded NFC club.

With fleet receivers WR Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel likely to get most of the attention on lengthy throws, Kittle might get quite a few catches but not the yards.

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