Bills vs. Chiefs history and head-to-head betting trends: Mahomes, Allen even ATS

Patrick Mahomes has gotten the better of Josh Allen with a pair of Super Bowl wins to his credit, but the Bills and Chiefs are dead even in six games played between the two quarterbacks.

As Mahomes prepares to make his first-ever postseason start on the road, let’s examine the head-to-head record and betting trends for Chiefs vs. Bills ahead of Sunday’s NFL Divisional Playoff game.

Live odds for this weekend’s clash have Chiefs , Bills , and a total of .

Chiefs vs. Bills head-to-head history

The Bills are 3-1 SU and ATS under Allen against the Chiefs in the regular season. In the playoffs, though, the Chiefs are 2-0 SU and ATS under Mahomes against the Bills.

Date Home score Away score Spread (ATS winner) Total (O/U)
Oct. 19, 2020 Buffalo 17 Kansas City 26 KC -5.5 (KC) 55 (U)
Jan. 24, 2021* Kansas City 38 Buffalo 24 KC -3 (KC) 55 (O)
Oct. 10, 2021 Kansas City 20 Buffalo 38 KC -2.5 (Buff) 56.5 (O)
Jan. 23, 2022* Kansas City 42 Buffalo 36 KC -2 (KC) 54.5 (O)
Oct. 16, 2022 Kansas City 20 Buffalo 24 Buff -2.5 (Buff) 54 (U)
Dec. 10, 2023 Kansas City 17 Buffalo 20 KC -1.5 (Buff) 48.5 (U)

* — Denotes playoff game

Here’s a look at those six games, with five of them being played at Arrowhead Stadium:

  • Bills 20 Chiefs 17 (Dec. 10, 2023)  

Most recently, the Bills won outright as a 1.5-point road dog at Kansas City in a game that went UNDER the total of 48.5.

  • Bills 24 Chiefs 20 (Oct. 16, 2022)

The Bills won and covered as a 2.5-point road favorite in a game that sailed UNDER the total of 54. 

  • Chiefs 42 Bills 36 OT (Jan. 23, 2022)

Travis Kelce’s 8-yard TD catch in overtime helped the Chiefs win and cover as a 2-point home favorite in the NFL Divisional Playoff game. The two teams combine to shatter the OVER at 54.5. 

  • Bills 38 Chiefs 20 (Oct. 10, 2021)

The Bills blow past the Chiefs to cover as a 2.5-point road underdog. Buffalo’s offensive explosion helps the game barely go OVER a hefty total of 56.5.

  • Chiefs 38 Bills 24 (Jan. 24, 2021)

Kansas City rolls to victory in the AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs covered as a 2-point home favorite in a tilt that went OVER 54.5. 

  • Chiefs 26 Bills 17 (Oct. 19, 2020)

This is the only game played at Buffalo, and it marked the first-ever meeting between Mahomes and Allen. Kansas City covered as a 5.5-point road favorite, and the game went UNDER 55.   

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Bills vs. Chiefs ATS and O/U trends

As Mahomes and Allen get set to meet for the seventh time on Sunday, the Chiefs and Bills are deadlocked at 3-3 SU and ATS through the first six meetings between the quarterbacks.

It’s not a stretch to say that Buffalo’s 20-17 win over Kansas City in December was its most important victory of the season. The Bills entered that tilt at 6-6 with the playoffs in doubt. But the victory at Arrowhead kick-started a five-game winning streak to close the season that ended with an AFC East title.

The tables have turned nicely for Buffalo, as it now hosts its first playoff game against the Chiefs during Allen’s tenure.  

Is it any wonder that the OVER/UNDER trend is also 3-3 between the two quarterbacks? 

The most recent meeting between the Bills and Chiefs featured the only sub-50 total at 48.5. It went UNDER with 37 combined points scored. 

The Bills and Chiefs produced 78 points in a 2022 NFL divisional playoff game that went OVER 56.5 before it went into overtime. That’s the most points of any game played during the Mahomes and Allen era.

Read more: Chiefs vs. Bills opening betting line, total

Patrick Mahomes’ ATS record as underdog

Mahomes is incredible in so many ways, and that includes his career ATS record as an underdog: 8-1-1. 

That one loss as an underdog came, of course, against the Bills and Allen last season. The Bills traveled to Arrowhead as a 2.5-point road favorite and won, 24-20. 

The only time the Chiefs have been a dog with Mahomes in the playoffs? That came last in last year’s Super Bowl, when the Chiefs entered as a 1.5-point underdog. KC won the game outright, 38-35. 

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