Chiefs vs. Bills TD scorer prop bets: Buffalo tight ends offer value in crowded market

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs meet in the NFL playoffs on Sunday for the third time in four seasons. Despite both offenses boasting top QBs and numerous playmakers, the Chiefs vs. Bills TD scorer props market is one of the more difficult divisional round betting markets for bettors to decipher. 

Both teams boast top-four scoring defenses and at times were forced to grind out wins the hard way during the regular season — at least compared to the offensive juggernauts they’ve been in past years. Still, with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen at the helm, the Chiefs and Bills are capable of putting points on the board early and often. The question is: Who are these QBs going to look to with a trip to the AFC championship game on the line? 

Let’s take a look at Chiefs vs. Bills TD scorer props at the top U.S. online sportsbooks, along with the betting lines and trends heading into this highly anticipated divisional round rematch. 

NFL TD scorer prop bets for Chiefs vs. Bills divisional round playoff game

Check out NFL prop odds on anytime touchdown scorers for Chiefs vs. Bills:

More: Best NFL betting sites | Latest NFL betting odds

Touchdown scorer props & odds for Chiefs vs. Bills 

With Buffalo weather expected to be in the 20s with little to no precipitation, this year’s divisional round matchup will not be hindered by the elements. Both defenses have been better against the pass than the run, but both offenses lean more on the passing game. 

Chiefs vs. Bills 2023 regular-season rankings

Here’s a statistical look at these divisional round combatants:

  Bills Chiefs
Scoring offense 26.5 PPG (6th) 21.8 PPG (15th)
Passing offense 244.4 (8th) 246.4 YPG (6th)
Rushing offense 130.1 YPG (7th) 104.9 YPG (19th)
Scoring defense 18.3 PPG (4th) 17.3 PPG (2nd)
Passing defense 196.6 YPG (7th) 176.5 YPG (4th)
Rushing defense 110.6 PPG (15th) 113.2 YPG (18th)

The Chiefs fed running back Isiah Pacheco in the wild card round, and he turned 24 carries into 89 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes also threw the ball 41 times, however, connecting on 23 for 262 yards and a TD pass to rookie WR Rashee Rice. The duo had another TD connection nullified due to a penalty. Curiously, star tight end Travis Kelce’s lengthy TD drought continued — he hasn’t found paydirt for seven straight games.  

Buffalo has a more balanced offense and a better running game than the Chiefs. Second-year RB James Cook has been unleashed down the stretch, averaging over 18 carries per game over the last five. But Cook doesn’t see many touches near the goal line, where Josh Allen or the team’s bigger backs tend to take over. Cook has handled only two carries inside the five-yard line since Week 4, although they came in Weeks 17 and 18. Four of Cook’s six TDs on the season have been through the air. 

More on this matchup: Chiefs vs. Bills early betting line movement | Chiefs vs. Bills trends and history

Chiefs vs. Bills anytime touchdown scorer prop bet picks

In past years, stars like Travis Kelce and Stefon Diggs would top the TD scorer props market by a bigger margin, offering value on certain second-tier options. That’s not the case thanks to lengthy stretches without a score (seven games for Kelce, six for Diggs). So the top end of the Chiefs vs. Bills player props market is crowded, with five options between +120 and +150.

So let’s be judicious with our player props despite all the star power. The Bills won a December matchup with the Chiefs by a fairly tame 20-17 score. 

Isiah Pacheco

A tad chalky, but the Chiefs have leaned on the explosive second-year RB down the stretch. Since Jerick McKinnon hit IR prior to Week 16, Pacheco has nearly had the Chiefs backfield to himself, with 53 carries for 245 yards and two TDs on the ground. He scored in the team’s ugly 20-14 loss to the Raiders in Week 16 despite toting the rock only 11 times for 26 yards but followed that up with 18 for 130 against Cincinnati (7.2 a pop). Pacheco has quietly been a reliable target-earner as well, averaging 4.2 looks per game over his last five, with two receiving TDs on the season. 

Stefon Diggs

It may not be a huge discount, but at the Bills’ No. 1 WR is an enticing option. Diggs hasn’t scored since Week 12, but Josh Allen has peppered him with targets down the stretch (8.2 per game over the last five), including three in the end zone. Diggs was wide open on a potential 89-yard TD in Week 18 vs. the Dolphins but Allen overthrew him. A consummate WR diva, Diggs will be back in the end zone sooner than later. 

Dalton Kincaid & Dawson Knox

Veteran TE Dawson Knox returned from a five-week absence in Week 14 and barely dented rookie Dalton Kincaid’s robust role in the Buffalo offense. Allen has targeted Kincaid 21 times over the last three games while looking Knox’s way only five times.

Knox managed to find the end zone twice in three weeks on this slim usage — his second and third scores on the year. Kincaid, on the other hand, has gradually become a major part of the Bills offense during his first year in the league, lining up all over the formation. Kincaid is now a crucial cog in the Bills’ passing offense, with WR2 Gabe Davis disappearing at times (he missed the wild card round with an injury). 

Consider Kincaid more of a WR2 for this matchup despite Davis returning. Knox is a boom or bust TD option but is priced accordingly. 

Chiefs vs. Bills anytime TD scorer parlay

With Allen’s odds so short, one intriguing option is to parlay his anytime touchdown with the same bet for Patrick Mahomes, who has yet to call his own number this season. 

Josh Allen + Patrick Mahomes (+1050 at FanDuel)

Since firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after Week 10, the Bills have unleashed Josh Allen on the ground. Allen only carried the ball more than seven times in a game once over the team’s first 10 contests. Since then? The 6-foot-5, 237-pound QB has done so in six of eight, averaging 9.0 per game and punching in nine of his career-high 15 rushing scores. 

Allen is a fine bet to score at , but let’s look to the athletic QB on the other side of this one for a TD-scorer parlay. Mahomes has yet to find the end zone on the ground this year, but he did so four times last season and twice in each of the four previous seasons. Mahomes is as elusive in the pocket as any QB in the league, and with the season on the line he will not hesitate to break free from the pocket if the opportunity arises.

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