NBA Prop-A-Shot: Recapping Raptors vs. Heat live betting blog for Jan. 17 — Upset special in the North

Thanks for stopping by to check out how we fared in our fifth installment of the Sporting News’ NBA Prop-A-Shot live betting blog! Today we specifically featured the Raptors vs. Heat game in Toronto, with the Raps fresh in the minds of many bettors and fans after trading Pascal Siakam to Indiana. We picked a handful of props and then live-blogged updates and live betting advice throughout the entirety of the game, like we do with a marquee matchup every Wednesday.

Tonight was a perfect example of a few different truths in the world of betting: 

  • On any given night in the pros, the unexpected can occur.
  • You’re never going to hit 60-75 percent of your bets every time out. 
  • Live betting can help you break even when your pregame props go south.

We completely whiffed on our pregame props and against the spread bet. What can we say — we didn’t think Bam Adebayo would lay an egg with Jontay Porter starting at center for Toronto (Bam was -23 on the night). We didn’t see Tyler Herro missing 13 shots or Kyle Lowry going 0-of-6 from deep. And we certainly didn’t have Toronto shooting 20-of-38 from three-point land.

However, we spared ourselves from certain disaster by nailing all of the in-game bets we placed and recommended in the live betting window. That helped us break even (minus a little juice), taking some of the sting out of an otherwise miserable day at the office. 

Let’s take a look at our live score updates, the synopsis of betting advice and updates we wrote throughout the game, and a review of our Prop-A-Shot scorecard for this week and the season as a whole. Thanks again for stopping by, and be sure to check back with us next Wednesday!

MORE: Pascal Siakam trade grade | Why he’s a perfect fit with the Pacers

Raptors vs. Heat live score updates

Quarter Line score Live moneyline Live over/under Score
Pregame Heat -1.5 MIA -155 225.5 (O/U -110)  0 – 0 
End 1st Raptors -11.5 TOR -750 230.5 (O/U -110) TOR 41-18
End 2nd Raptors -26.5 Off the board 229.5 (O -125/U -105) TOR 78-43
End 3rd Raptors -12.5 TOR -10000 219.5 (O/U -110) TOR 94-73
6:00 4th Raptors -15.5 Off the board 219.5 (O/U -110) TOR 106-90
Final Raps W by 24  –  218 total points TOR 121-97

Raptors vs. Heat live betting advice, player props, strategy

  • 7:20 p.m. ET: We just witnessed the line move from Heat -2.5 to Heat -3.5, and we can’t believe it hasn’t jumped up to -4.5 by now. With Pascal Siakam gone, Bruce Brown not yet an active Raptor, and Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro active for the Heat while multiple Raps are hurt, -3.5 seems like great game time value.
  • 7:35 p.m.: Here’s the Raptors’ starting lineup: Quickley, Barrett, Trent, Barnes, and Porter. Jontay Porter is the real sore thumb here, and we’re doubling down on our Bam Adebayo action. You can get Bam at -145 to make his first field goal attempt, -120 to go OVER 12.5 rebounds, and +155 to swat OVER 1.5 blocks. We’re betting the first field goal prop and we’re already locked in on the boards, but we’re not touching his blocks prop or his 22.5-point scoring OVER at -120. Too much risk of garbage time. 
  • 7:44 p.m.: A minute and a half into the post-Siakam world north of the border, the Raptors are still crashing the boards and getting up the floor quickly (or should we say, Quickley?). We’re also noticing the Heat swarming Barnes with double-teams almost every time he’s within the three-point arc. There might be some fringe value on Barnes’ OVER of 5.5 assists at +115. He’s definitely hitting our pregame points + rebounds OVER of 28.5, though. He already has multiple boards and a basket. 
  • 7:50 p.m.: Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has to burn his first timeout with Miami trailing 13-2. Quickley is shooting lights-out and the Heat look a little sleepy on defense and on fast breaks. The live line has changed to Toronto -2.5. We’re not biting three minutes in. 
  • 7:56 p.m.: It’s 22-15 Toronto just after the halfway mark of the first. IQ has 10 points and his live over/under is a massive 27.5 points (O -105/U -135). C’mon, the Heat aren’t letting Quickley flirt with 30. Hit the UNDER.
  • 8:07 p.m.: In what just felt like a blink, the Raptors just turned a 22-15 lead into a 41-18 lead. Toronto is now -11.5 with a -750 live moneyline, which translates to an 88 percent win probability. Yikes. 
  • 8:13 p.m.: Did the Heat get bottomless mimosas at a Toronto bar pregame? They look lost out there. No defense, no offense, brick city, pitiful rebounding. IQ, Barrett, and Barnes have combined for 26. Miami is shooting 28 percent and has missed 10 straight shots. It’s 47-18 with 10:00 left in the half. I should have never changed from Toronto +2.5 after the P trade earlier today.
  • 8:23 p.m.: The Heat are starting to show a little life on transition — they just made baskets on three straight offensive possessions — but they still need to lock it up defensively. You can get Miami at +22.5 right now (+110). That’s pretty good value just for garbage time. Toronto can’t sustain 64 percent shooting and 74 percent from long range. Twenty-one assists on 23 made shots. 
  • 8:30 p.m.: 72-37 Toronto with 3:00 left. The garbage time will come! Toronto welcomes the Bulls tomorrow for the tail end of a back-to-back. Still Raps -22.5. 
  • 8:41 p.m.: We’re betting the UNDER (229.5). The Raptors can’t possibly keep shooting like they’re on fire in NBA Jam, and they will probably send in the reserves sooner than later with another game tomorrow. And Miami already looked defeated in the first half. 
  • 8:49 p.m.: That first half was a MasterClass by the Raptors — 22 assists, two turnovers. Shooting splits of 60.4/63.6/85.7. WHAT!?
  • 8:58 p.m.: 82-55 Raptors. The Heat have a pulse! This could get interesting, for sure. Line’s moved down to -20.5 now. 
  • 9:12 p.m.: Every time the Heat look like they’re battling to make things interesting, the Raps respond. Barnes era Toronto is gonna be fun. 91-67 Raps. Live UNDER is 222.5 now. Good thing we locked in the UNDER of 229.5 at the half. 
  • 9:23 p.m.: 96-83 Raptors! Loving the fight from the Heat here!
  • 9:31 p.m.: Back to 112-90 Toronto. This one’s just about over with just over four minutes left, folks. 
  • 9:45 p.m.: Final score: Raptors 121, Heat 97. We hit some live bets but we clearly whiffed by backing the Heat and switching from Toronto +2.5 to Miami -3.5 after the Siakam trade. Womp womp! Check our Prop-A-Shot scorecard below to see how we fared!

Raptors vs. Heat: Pregame player props, best bets

All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.

Prop-A-Shot Scorecard

Pregame bets and player props

  • Heat -2.5 vs. Raptors (-105) ❌
  • Scottie Barnes points + rebounds: OVER 28.5 (-110) ❌ 💀 by 0.5!
  • Tyler Herro three-pointers: OVER 3.5 (+115) ❌
  • Bam Adebayo rebounds: OVER 12.5 (-105) ❌
  • Pascal Siakam rebounds: UNDER 6.5 (-110) VOID

Final (miserable) pregame scorecard: 0-4

Live betting props and over/under, spread picks

  • Bam Adebayo to make his first field goal attempt (-145) ✅
  • Scottie Barnes’ OVER 5.5 assists (+115) ✅
  • Immanuel Quickley UNDER 27.5 points (-135) ✅
  • Final score total UNDER 229.5 (-110)  ✅

Final live betting scorecard: 4-0 (phew)

Final Week 5 Prop-A-Shot Score: 4-4

Total Prop-A-Shot Score Through 5 Weeks: 43-30

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