Chiefs vs. Bills AFC divisional playoff player prop picks: Can Allen & Mahomes go OVER yardage totals?

The NFL divisional playoffs feature some compelling matchups, but there’s no doubt about this weekend’s biggest game.

The Chiefs and Bills renew their rivalry in the seventh meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Kickoff is set for Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium with live coverage on CBS.

Mahomes and Allen both began their journeys as starting quarterbacks in 2018, and the Chiefs-Bills rivalry has flourished ever since with each QB winning and covering three games against the other.   

Let’s examine the best Chiefs vs. Bills player props for Sunday’s game and start our discussion with these talented quarterbacks.

Best player props & odds for Chiefs vs. Bills

These are our top Chiefs vs. Bills player prop picks ahead of Sunday’s AFC Divisional Playoff game.

Read more: Chiefs vs. Bills odds, props, predictions | Chiefs vs. Bills TD scorer prop picks 

Passing yards props

Patrick Mahomes passing yards props

Mahomes eclipsed this number in the 20-17 loss to the Bills on Dec. 10, but the Chiefs were without RB Isiah Pacheco in that game due to a shoulder injury.

Pacheco served as a battering ram with a season-high 24 carries in last week’s 26-7 playoff win over Miami. Expect the Chiefs to lean on the running attack again versus the Bills, somewhat compromising Mahomes’ numbers in the passing game. 

Pick: Mahomes UNDER

Josh Allen passing yards props

This number is tempting for Allen, who threw for three TDs, but only 203 yards in last week’s win over the Steelers.

The Chiefs will try to contain Allen to lessen any damage done by him on the run, which they accomplished for the most part last month.  

Will more time in the pocket translate to more passing yards? We’ll see. But Allen’s averaged 269.2 passing yards per game against the Chiefs, and this number is getable.

Pick: Allen OVER

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Receiving yards props

Stefon Diggs receiving props

Diggs is having a ho-hum season by his standards. In the regular season game at Kansas City, he had four catches for 24 yards. Diggs can expect to see plenty more of Kansas City’s best cornerback in L’Jarius Sneed on Sunday.

Sneed covered Diggs on 23 of 35 plays, which translated to 65.7% of the time per Next Gen stats. With Sneed shadowing him, Diggs had one catch for three yards on five targets.   

Check out the last five games for Diggs, which came after the Dec. 10 tilt against the Chiefs:

  • 48 yards vs. Cowboys
  • 29 yards vs. Chargers
  • 26 yards vs. Patriots 
  • 87 yards vs. Dolphins
  • 52 yards vs. Steelers

That’s brutal with just one game going over this number. Diggs has become less of a focal point, and the difficult matchup with Sneed makes this our favorite prop pick for Chiefs vs. Bills.

Pick: Diggs UNDER

Rushing yards props

Isiah Pacheco rushing props

Pacheco had a game-high 89 rushing yards and a TD run in the 26-7 win over the Dolphins. As mentioned, he carried the ball 24 times to establish a new season high.

Kansas City’s bell-cow RB runs angry and rarely goes down on first contact. 

Expect Pacheco to be highly involved again against the Bills on Sunday.

Pick: Pacheco OVER


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