Lions vs. 49ers betting preview: 49ers favored but Lions could pull off upset

The NFC representative for Super Bowl 58 will be decided when the Detroit Lions take on the San Francisco 49ers on Jan. 26 at Levi’s Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET.

It will be the third consecutive year the 49ers have made the NFC title game and the first for the Lions since 1991.

San Francisco opened as a 7-point favorite, but early betting saw that number dip to -6.5 at some sportsbooks. Live odds now have the 49ers at and the Lions  .

The win over the Packers in the divisional round was not as convincing as San Francisco supporters had hoped for. Detroit enters the game coming off two solid postseason wins.

NFC Championship Game odds: Lions vs. 49ers point spread, moneyline, total

Here are live odds for Lions vs. 49ers from the top NFL betting sites:

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Lions betting ATS trends and betting news

  • Detroit is 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS; 1-1 ATS in postseason play.
  • They were underdogs three times this season (vs. Ravens +3, vs. Chiefs +4, and Cowboys +4.5), all on the road. The Lions went 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in those games.
  • In their last six games (including playoffs), the 49ers are 5-1 SU and ATS (they were -3 vs. the Rams in the wild card round but won by one point).
  • The OVER is 12-7 for the Lions this season and 5-4 on the road.
  • In conference games, the OVER has gone 9-5 for the Lions, but 1-2 when Detroit was on the road and an underdog and 0-3 when the total was 50+ points.
  • Jared Goff is 3-6 all-time vs. the 49ers, 0-1 SU, and 1-0 ATS with the Lions.
  • Left guard Jonah Jackson is expected to miss the game, and Center Frank Ragnow is listed as questionable but expected to play.

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49ers ATS trends and betting news

  • The 49ers lead the all-time series vs. the Lions 39-28-1 but are 1-1 in postseason play.
  • San Francisco is 13-5 SU but just 9-9 ATS this season.
  • They were favored in all nine home games this season but went 3-6 ATS.
  • The 49ers last covered the spread at home vs. the Cowboys in Week 5; they have been 0-6 ATS at home since, including the playoffs.
  • They have been favored in every game this season and touchdown or better favorites in 11 (9-2 SU and 5-6 ATS).
  • The OVER is 10-8 this season for the 49ers and 5-4 at home; it was 0-1 when the total was 50+ points.
  • In conference games, the OVER has gone 7-6.
  • Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 in postseason play; Brock Purdy is 3-1 as a starter in the playoffs.
  • Deebo Samuel is listed as questionable after going down with an injury vs. the Packers. The team has announced that he avoided a break in his injured shoulder but is uncertain if he’ll be available vs. the Lions.

Lions vs. 49ers injury report

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Lions vs. 49ers player props

Passing yards

  • Jared Goff has thrown for over 254.5 yards in his last six games (including playoff games) and in 12 of 19 games this year.
  • Detroit averaged 258.9 net YPG (No. 2 in the league) and recorded 30 passing touchdowns.
  • Brock Purdy has not thrown for 267.5 yards since Week 14 vs. Seattle (368 yards); he threw for over 267.5 yards in eight games this season.
  • The 49ers offense averaged 257.9 net YPG (No. 4) and recorded 33 passing touchdowns.
  • The Lions defense has allowed 247.4 YPG (No. 27) and 28 passing touchdowns.
  • The 49ers defense has allowed 214.2 YPG (No. 14) and 20 passing touchdowns.

Rushing yards

  • David Montgomery averaged 72.5 yards and 15.6 carries per game during the regular season but has 24 carries for 90 yards in two playoff games.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 63 yards and 13 carries per game during the regular season but has 12 carries for 99 yards in two playoff games.
  • Christian McCaffrey averaged 91.2 yards and 17 carries per game during the regular season. He had 17 carries for 98 yards in the divisional round.
  • Jared Goff rushed for over 1.5 yards three times this season and for 0 or negative yards in 13 games.
  • Brock Purdy had 14 yards rushing in the divisional round but had over 7.5 in five regular season games.
  • Detroit has the No. 2 run defense (88.8 YPG allowed); San Francisco has the No. 3 run defense (89.7 YPG allowed)

Anytime touchdown scorer

  • Detroit has four players with 10 or more touchdowns in the regular season: Amon-Ra St. Brown (10), Sam LaPorta (10), David Montgomery (13) and Jayhmr Gibbs (10).
  • Montgomery has recorded a touchdown in 12 of 15 games; Gibbs recorded one in six of his last seven games; St. Brown in five of his last six; LaPorta in three of his last six.
  • Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in touchdowns scored this season with 21 (14 rushing and seven receiving) and had two vs. the Packers. He recorded a touchdown in every game he played in but three.
  • Seven players recorded receiving touchdowns for the 49ers, led by Brandon Aiuyuk, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, who each had seven.
  • The Lions defense has given up 28 passing touchdowns and 15 rushing.
  • The 49ers defense has given up 20 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing.

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Lions vs. 49ers analysis

With the No. 2 scoring offense (28.9 PPG) and No. 3 scoring defense (17.5 PPG allowed) in the league this season, the outlook is promising for the 49ers.

Brock Purdy has proven the team was right to stick with him over Trey Lance by completing close to 70% of his passes, throwing the third-most touchdowns in the league (31) and finishing the regular season with the highest passer rating (113.0) among quarterbacks with more than four starts.

Christian McCaffrey has had an MVP-worthy season, leading the league in rushing, all-purpose yards and touchdowns. But the offense may be without one of its top weapons, Deebo Samuel, who injured his shoulder against the Packers last week.

But as good as the San Francisco defense has been, it will have its work cut out for it against a solid Lions offense.

Like the 49ers, the Lions offense averaged just under 400 yards per game during the regular season. Detroit had the second-best passing game (258.9 yards per game) and the fifth-best run game (135.9 yards per game).

Jared Goff has a solid collection of receivers to work with, including Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds and Sam LaPorta. But the 49ers can’t focus too much on the passing game and risk letting David Montgomery and Jayhmr Gibbs get the run game on track.

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Bet(s) to consider

Lions

Lions

A lot of the early talk has favored the 49ers in this matchup, but the Lions are a formidable team. They may not have an explosive player like Christian McCaffrey, but there is plenty of talent on the roster.

It will be tough to run against the 49ers, which makes getting the passing game on track in the first half key. Doing so should help open some running lanes for Gibbs and Montgomery in the second. If they can, Detroit will keep this one within a touchdown and may even win.

First half total, UNDER

With two solid defenses in this game, both offenses will have a hard time getting on track in the first half, keeping the score relatively low. But look for them to do better in the second after making a few adjustments at halftime.

Jared Goff OVER

Goff must get the passing game on track for the Lions to have a shot in this game. Otherwise, Gibbs and Montgomery will struggle against one of the best run defenses in the league. With the skill position players at his disposal and a solid offensive line, he should be able to.

Christian McCaffrey, 2+ touchdowns

First half touchdown

Second half touchdown

McCaffrey is a scoring machine for the 49ers. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line and Deebo Samuel possibly out for the game, there is a good chance they lean on him more than usual when they get in the red zone.

He has recorded 2 or more touchdowns in six games this season, including last weekend’s win over the Packers.

Jared Goff UNDER rushing yards

Goff is not a running quarterback and if forced to scramble will probably not get too far against a speedy 49ers front seven.

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