Oscars betting odds: Predictions & picks for 2024 Academy Awards

The 2024 Academy Award nominations were announced on Tuesday, Jan. 23, with their usual mix of sure-things, snubs and surprises among the nominees. 

Christopher Nolan’s epic biopic “Oppenheimer” led all nominees with 13 noms, including in all the top categories besides Best Actress. The Emma Stone-starring black comedy “Poor Things” scored the second-most nominations with 11, while Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” received 10.  

If you live in a state that allows it, you can bet at online sportsbooks on who will take home an Oscar this year, and below we list odds and make early predictions for the most prestigious of these Academy Awards 

The 96th annual Academy Awards ceremony will be broadcast on ABC on Sunday, March 10 at 7 p.m. (EST). 

Here’s an overview of what Oscars betting lines looked like at DraftKings right after the nominees were announced, as well as potential picks in each of the top six categories. 

2024 Oscars odds: Best Picture

  • Oppenheimer -1000
  • Poor Things +1200
  • The Holdovers +1200
  • Killers of the Flower Moon +2500
  • Anatomy of a Fall +2800
  • American Fiction +4000
  • The Zone of Interest +4000
  • Barbie +4000
  • Past Lives +6500
  • Maestro +6500

Perhaps the least controversial category at this year’s Oscars, many industry pundits predicted this exact slate as the probable Best Picture noms. It also matches up precisely with the 10 nominees for the top prize at the Producers Guild of America awards announced just a couple of weeks ago.

“Oppenheimer” is the heavy favorite to take home the Best Picture trophy, coming fresh off of recent wins at the Golden Globes and Critic’s Choice Awards. The historical drama has all of the qualities of a Best Picture Oscar winner — it’s an expansive period piece and biopic with incredible acting and brilliant cinematography. 

Although “Killers of the Flower Moon” seems like the next most traditionally Best Picture-like nom, oddsmakers currently think Alexander Payne’s quirky, feel-good “The Holdovers” and the twisted horror-com “Poor Things” have a better chance of winning. “Poor Things” has picked up steam with its wealth of nominations (Oscar and otherwise), as well as its recent Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy win at the Golden Globes. 

Best Picture betting prediction

“Oppenheimer” is one of the more clear-cut, consensus Best Picture winners in recent memory, but keep an eye on how “Poor Things” performs in the other award shows leading up to the Oscars. It seems a little like last year’s Best Picture winner, “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” in that it’s wickedly unconventional and weird and the more people actually see it, the louder the buzz gets. 

Academy Awards odds for Best Actress

  • Emma Stone, Poor Things -135
  • Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon +100
  • Carey Mulligan, Maestro +2000
  • Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall +2000
  • Annette Bening, Nyad +3500

This category had one of the most buzzed about snubs after the nominations were announced. Not only did Margot Robbie not receive a nod for “Barbie” as anticipated, her onscreen “Ken” did score a nomination, feeding into the film’s themes of patriarchal oppression a little too well. 

Critics have called Emma Stone’s turn as a Frankenstein’s monster-like creation in “Poor Things” her best performance yet. Her Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice wins earlier this month for the role have made her the favorite. 

But Lily Gladstone’s gut-wrenching performance in “Killers of the Flower Moon” also earned her a Golden Globe, setting this category up to be a two-person race. Gladstone is the first Native American to receive an Oscar nomination for Best Actress.  

Best Actress betting prediction

Stone is a bit of an Academy darling; this is her fourth acting nomination and she won Best Actress in 2017 for “La La Land.” Gladstone was stunning in “Killers” and Academy members just might lean toward making her the first Native American to ever win an Oscar. But her performance was much more subtle than Stone’s, which could work against her in the voter’s eyes. If you’re looking for the safest bet, you should probably go with Stone. But if you’re looking for a pick with a little more value, betting on Gladstone is more than reasonable. 

Oscars odds for Best Actor

  • Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer -250
  • Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers +200
  • Bradley Cooper, Maestro +750
  • Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction +2500
  • Colman Domingo, Rustin +3500

Though some non-industry folks might have seen Leonardo DiCaprio’s absence for his work in “Killers of the Flower Moon” as a snub, like Best Picture, the Best Actor category panned out pretty much like most awards watchers predicted. 

Bradley Cooper, Jeffrey Wright and Colman Domingo (who shined as the titular civil-rights hero in the otherwise underwhelming Rustin) all scored Golden Globe, Critic’s Choice and Screen Actors Guild award nominations for their acclaimed performances, with Cooper and Domingo also nabbing BAFTA nods.

But the winner of this one will likely be either Cillian Murphy, who masterfully led awards powerhouse “Oppenheimer”, or Paul Giamatti, whose performance as an offbeat boarding-school teacher was soulful, funny and touching. Murphy and Giamatti both won Best Actor Golden Globes earlier this month (in the “Drama” and “Musical or Comedy” categories, respectively), while Giamatti beat out Murphy and his other fellow Oscar nominees to win the Critic’s Choice award. 

Best Actor betting prediction

Murphy’s dynamic performance was boldface, while, comparatively, Giamatti’s was in italics. While Giamatti has a chance at pulling an upset, Academy voters are more likely to go with Murphy’s bolder portrayal.

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Odds for Best Supporting Actress

  • Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers -2000
  • Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple +1100
  • Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer +1100
  • America Ferrera, Barbie +2000
  • Jodie Foster, Nyad +2500

Da’Vine Joy Randolph showed majorly magnetic big-screen presence as the irascible but ultimately tender cook colleague of Giamatti in “The Holdovers”. With wins at the Golden Globes and Critic’s Choice Awards, Randolph was considered a lock for an Oscar nomination, as were Danielle Brooks and Emily Blunt. 

The other two slots were more up in the air. Some felt Julianne Moore (“May December”), Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”) or even Best Actress nominee Sandra Hüller (for “The Zone of Interest”) would make the cut. Ultimately, veteran Jodie Foster, who was nominated for Golden Globe, SAG and Critic’s Choice awards, earned a nod, as did America Ferrera, whose nomination for “Barbie” was one of this year’s biggest surprises. 

Best Supporting Actress prediction

The odds are right, it’s likely Randolph’s year. But if you’re looking for a longshot bet with some value, consider going with Ferrera. With the backlash over Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig’s snubs, voters may well turn their attention to Ferrera’s “Barbie” performance, which includes an inspirational monologue perfectly emblematic of both the film’s feminist themes and the controversy surrounding Robbie and Gerwig’s omission.

Oscars odds: Best Supporting Actor

  • Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer -1000
  • Ryan Gosling, Barbie +650
  • Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon +1400
  • Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things +1600
  • Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction +2000

Robert Downey Jr. and Ryan Gosling were the only two in this category widely considered locks for nominations. Others in the running included Charles Melton (“May December”) and Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”). 

Willem Dafoe was nominated for Male Actor in a Supporting Role at the SAG Awards for his “Poor Things” performance, while Mark Ruffalo was not, leading some to believe the Oscars would follow suit. The Academy did follow suit mostly, though. Besides Dafoe, the SAG and Oscar nominees in this category are identical.  

Best Supporting Actor prediction

It’s kind of surprising that Downey’s odds of winning aren’t considerably better. He will almost certainly be taking home a trophy Oscars night. The “Barbie” backlash will probably take out Gosling (can you imagine the furor if “Ken” won the film’s only award?). The other nominees are all strong, but none conveyed the weight of Downey’s pivotal “Oppenheimer” performance. 

Best Director odds for 2024 Academy Awards

  • Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer -3500
  • Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon +1400
  • Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things +1400
  • Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall +1600
  • Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest +2500

Christopher Nolan is the most favorite of the favorites this Oscar season, with the highest odds to win out of all the categories. Nolan has already won this award at the Golden Globes and Critic’s Choice Awards and he’s the favorite to win at the BAFTAs and Director’s Guild of America Awards in February. 

All of these directors were deemed to have a good chance of being nominated, though some felt Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”) and Alexander Payne (“The Holdovers”) would make the final cut. 

Best Director prediction

Nolan is always on any list of great directors who’ve never won an Oscar. He’s in good company, sitting alongside the likes of Stanley Kubrick, Alfred Hitchcock and Quentin Tarantino. That changes this year. “Oppenheimer” is a cinematic masterpiece and the film has too much momentum to be denied. 


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