Super Bowl 2024 odds, line: 49ers vs. Chiefs picks, predictions from SN experts

The 2023-24 NFL playoffs have featured no shortage of great plays, fantastic finishes, and head-scratching coaching decisions, but it’s all led to this — the Chiefs and 49ers squaring off in Super Bowl 58. 

The Chiefs will look to become the first repeat Super Bowl champs since the 2003-04 Patriots, while the 49ers will look to avenge their 31-20 defeat to the Chiefs just four years ago in Super Bowl 54.

The Chiefs (+600) had the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl before the season, and the 49ers (+1000) were tied for fourth-shortest. Once again, Vegas knew what it was talking about, though it needed a historic 49ers’ comeback to avoid having the long-shot Lions (+2200) in the Super Bowl.

MORE: Watch Super Bowl 58 live with Fubo (free trial) 

So, after all the twists and turns, here we are, with Patrick Mahomes and Co. looking to continue their dynasty against a Brock Purdy-led squad looking to establish one of its own. Despite all the momentum seemingly on the Chiefs’ side, San Francisco opened as two-point favorites, but the money quickly came in on the Chiefs, moving the line down to San Francisco -1 in a hurry. 

SN’s panel of experts would gladly take that bet, as all five picked the Chiefs to win outright. Four of five experts picked the total to go OVER 47.5, though that number figures to shift throughout the next two weeks, too.

Below are all of our expert picks for Super Bowl 58, complete with explanations for each pick and score predictions for 49ers vs. Chiefs (all odds courtesy of Caesar’s).

Super Bowl 2024 predictions: Expert picks for 49ers vs. Chiefs

  • Location: Paradise, Nev.
  • Kickoff time: 6:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Point spread: 49ers -1
  • Over/under: 47.5
  • Moneyline: 49ers -120, Chiefs +100

Vinnie Iyer: Three things usually end up winning championships in the NFL, and the formula in Super Bowl 58 remains the same. Defense is always key, but coaching and quarterback play are right up there in the modern pass-oriented, offensive-minded game. 

The Chiefs proved in the playoffs they have the best defense in the league, especially vs. the pass with their versatile and prolific pass rush and ace secondary coverage. They also have Andy Reid, who has once again put on a master class in adjusting his team’s scheming and mindset for the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes has been the league and Super Bowl MVP twice, but in this particular Chiefs’ season, he’s been the gravy. 

If there was an award for best supporting actors to Mahomes, the first would be tight end Travis Kelce, who is turning Taylor Swift mania into a motivating battle cry. The second is defensive tackle Chris Jones, a dominant force looking for the biggest defensive contract in NFL history as a pending free agent. Along with Reid and Mahoems, they happen to be the core four of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl dynasty.

The 49ers can move the ball just fine offensively with their core four around Brock Purdy, but their sudden defensive woes, especially against the run, isn’t well timed with Mahomes and Reid rediscovering essential help from the power rushing attack. Reid and Kyle Shanahan might call offenses to a draw, but the Chiefs have a huge edge with Steve Spagnuolo and the more impactful young defensive talent.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, 49ers 27

Bill Bender: The Chiefs might be the underdogs, but the line doesn’t match the narrative. Will San Francisco knock off the defending Super Bowl champions in a rematch from Super Bowl 54? 

That will hinge on whether the 49ers can disrupt the connection between Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, which has been good for 257 yards and three TDs in three playoff games. Isiah Pacheco also will have success against a San Francisco run defense that has allowed an average of 159 rushing yards per game in the playoffs, too. 

San Francisco has an impressive supporting cast around Brock Purdy with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, but the Chiefs’ defense is the underrated story here. They have shut down three top-shelf offenses in the playoffs, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has two weeks to prepare. 

Ultimately, the Chiefs win the third-down battle, and Mahomes makes those connections to Kelce when it counts. Kansas City wins back-to-back Super Bowls in style. 

Prediction: Chiefs 30, 49ers 24

MORE SUPER BOWL 58: Halftime show | Location | Tickets

Matt Lutovsky: The 49ers were my pick at the beginning of the playoffs, but after watching Brock Purdy teeter-totter his way through two narrow playoff wins and the Chiefs’ defense limit three high-powered offenses, it’s tough to stick with that pick. Of course, with everyone jumping off the 49ers’ and Ravens’ bandwagons to hop on the Chiefs’, it feels a bit squarish to just say, “Patrick Mahomes is the best QB, so I’m picking the Chiefs.”

But here’s the thing: Patrick Mahomes is the best QB, and the Chiefs’ defense is playing lights out right now. When you combine the two, how can you pick against the defending champs? San Francisco has the type of offense that can light up anyone, but the Chiefs are simply playing better in all three phases. Two weeks is a long layoff, so Brock Purdy, kicker Jake Moody, and the 49ers’ defense might find their mojos in the meantime, but we know for a fact that Mahomes, Harrison Butker, and Chris Jones aren’t losing theirs.

Unless Andy Reid and the Chiefs get too cute for their own good with some unnecessarily complicated goal-line play-calling, the Chiefs will do just enough to win another Super Bowl and officially put Patrick Mahomes on the G.O.A.T. watchlist. 

Prediction: Chiefs 24, 49ers 20

Jacob Camenker: The Chiefs are in an underdog role that has been all too familiar to them in recent weeks, but it’s still hard to argue against them in this spot. They are playing in their fourth Super Bowl over the past five years and have the requisite experience needed to handle Super Bowl jitters well.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are playing in the game for the first time in four years, and this will be the most difficult game of Brock Purdy’s career. The second-year passer has been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks this season, but he has struggled at times against upper-echelon defenses. The Chiefs’ stop unit qualifies and has the cornerback talent needed to limit Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel.

Kyle Shanahan will have to get creative to open up outlets consistently for Purdy. Christian McCaffrey will challenge a Chiefs defense that is weaker against the run (113.2 rushing yards allowed per game, 15th-most in the NFL) than the pass (176.5 yards per game, fourth-fewest in the NFL), it will undoubtedly come down to Purdy to make a play at some point.

Patrick Mahomes’ task won’t be easy either, as the 49ers are strong over the middle of the field, but Sam LaPorta just gashed them in the NFC championship game for nine catches and 97 yards. It’s easy to imagine Travis Kelce logging similar production and helping the Chiefs become the NFL’s first repeat champion since the 2003-04 Patriots.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, 49ers 20

MORE: Myth-busting the worst narratives for Super Bowl 58

Edward Sutelan: The 49ers are just built different. A look at the team tiers at RBSDM has San Francisco in its own class. The 49ers were far and away the best offense in the NFL. The defense, though not the best, ranked as a top-10 unit. There are stars everywhere, from Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Fred Warner, and Charvarius Ward.

But the Chiefs have one player no other team has: Patrick Mahomes. There’s simply no comparison. Any attempt at saying he has a true rival at this stage in his career is disingenuous. He stands alone. 

I’m a numbers guy, and the numbers all say that the 49ers should win this game. However, I just can’t bring myself to pick against Mahomes and the Chiefs. This defense just held the Ravens — a team that blew the 49ers out by 24 points — to only 10 at their home stadium. The Mahomes and Travis Kelce connection looks as timeless as ever, and the wide receivers are not actively costing Kansas City games. Super Bowl 58 will mark the third ring in the latest great American dynasty.

Prediction: Chiefs 21, 49ers 17

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