Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction, odds, expert betting tips and best bets for Madrid derby in La Liga

Real Madrid hope they can finally exorcise the demons of their local derby rivals as they host Atletico Madrid at the Bernabeu in their second La Liga meeting of the season.

This will be the fourth matchup between the clubs already this campaign and third of the 2024 calendar year. It will be their final meeting of the season unless fate deems they shall find each other in the Champions League, as both remain alive with the knockout stage to begin later this month.

Atleti have proven by far the largest source of frustration for Carlo Ancelotti this campaign, having handed Los Blancos their only two defeats of the season across all competitions, while the third required extra-time for Real Madrid to secure victory at the Supercopa de Espana.

With Real Madrid in control of their own destiny at the top of the La Liga standings but consistently put under pressure by surprise challengers Girona, Los Blancos cannot afford another slip against Diego Simeone here. They sit a point back of leaders Girona with a game in hand, so any dropped points would see them lose full command of their own title aspirations.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid and bet La Liga matches

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Real Madrid (-150)
  • Score prediction: Real Madrid 3-2 Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid have proven a deeply flawed but also exceedingly resilient team this season, and they always seem to have an extra gear when playing their local rivals.

All three meetings between the two clubs this season have been thrillers, as Atletico Madrid won the initial league fixture 3-1 at home before falling 5-3 in extra-time in the Supercopa. Diego Simeone returned to supremacy with a 4-2 victory in the Copa del Rey, seeing Real Madrid crash out of the competition far earlier than anticipated.

Given that, beating Real Madrid three times in a season would be a stunning accomplishment, especially considering nobody else in the entire year has managed to do it once. A rested Jude Bellingham is back from yellow card suspension, Vinicius Jr is in sensational form, and Los Blancos will even the score for the year. It certainly would be the perfect launching point for a storybook fifth meeting of the year should they match up in the Champions League in the coming months.

  DraftKings
(USA)
Real Madrid win -150
Draw +300
Atletico Madrid win +320
Both teams
to score Y/N
-160 / +126
Over / Under
2.5 goals
-160 / +115
Real Madrid
-0.5 goals
-145
Atletico Madrid
+0.5 goals
+115

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid match facts

  • Date: Sunday, Feb. 4, 2024
  • Kickoff time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid, Spain)
  • Referee: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez VAR: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias
  • Last meeting: Atletico Madrid 4-2 Real Madrid (Jan. 18, 2024 | Copa del Rey)

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid best bet

  • Pick: Over 3.0 total goals
  • Odds: +145 (DraftKings)

While these two clubs on occasion can play to some cagey final scorelines, it’s quite surprising that the betting market has set the goal total so low given how the first three matchups of the season between the Madrid rivals have played out. Over the course of 300 minutes of gameplay, these two sides have bagged 18 goals between them, with 10 for Atleti and eight for Real Madrid.

It’s highly likely that another high-scoring thriller is on the cards. Knowing he doesn’t have the players to execute his defensive style upon which his reputation was built, Diego Simeone has discarded those shackles in favour of a far more aggressive and high-risk tactical approach. While Jan Oblak has performed quite well over the course of the season, he has suffered a few errors against his Madrid rivals in this season’s matchups, and Real Madrid’s defense has been thinned considerably by injuries.

Neither club has kept a clean sheet in this rivalry for six consecutive meetings, with at least three goals in five of those six games. It’s hard to imagine them regressing here, knowing that both clubs have tons riding on collecting all three points.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prop bet

  • Pick: Vinicius Jr anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +150 (DraftKings)
  • Pick: Alvaro Morata anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +200 (DraftKings)
  • Pick: Antoine Griezmann to score or assist a goal
  • Odds: +155 (FanDuel)

The odds for all three of these superstars are, simply put, too juicy to pass up, as the betting market seems to expect regression in front of goal here instead of yet another attacking onslaught.

Atletico Madrid talisman Antoine Griezmann has scored in all three meetings between the clubs this season, and has been electric in both the creative and finishing departments, with 18 goals and seven assists across 32 appearances in all competitions this season. He has an assist in each of the club’s last four league games, and is a great bet to be heavily involved here with goals likely to flow.

His strike partner Alvaro Morata continues to gobble up chances in front of goal, with 19 on the year so far. He was sat last time out against Rayo Vallecano with a slight muscle injury, but is fit to start here according to reports. He bagged a brace in their reverse league fixture this season, and also scored in the Copa del Rey win, primed to continue his strong performances against Los Blancos.

Finally, if Real Madrid are to pull out a win and even the score this season, Vinicius Jr must continue his strong run of form. He has been electric of late, scoring four goals in his last four league appearances on 17 shots worth a combined 3.07 xG. The Brazilian’s otherworldly dribbling has parted the seas, completing a dribble once every 24.31 minutes, second-most in the league of any established individual this year.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid live stream, TV channel

  TV channel Streaming
USA  — ESPN+
UK ViaPlay Sports 1 LaLigaTV
Canada  — TSN+

Like the entirety of the 2023/24 La Liga season, this Madrid derby will be broadcast exclusively on ESPN+. Somewhat surprisingly, the match was not selected for air on ESPN’s television platforms, as some La Liga matches throughout the season are often available on ESPN Deportes or other channels.

This match will be available in the UK on ViaPlay Sports 1, with streaming on LaLigaTV. In Canada, this league match will be streamed exclusively on TSN+.

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