How Baltimore weather forecast impacts best bets for Chiefs vs. Ravens player prop over-unders

It’s something that often gets overlooked by NFL bettors, fans, and even betting analysts: weather.

We spend so much time evaluating teams, comparing matchups, and monitoring injury reports that we sometimes forget to think about potential field conditions, which can be the most important factor of them all.

Ask 49ers QB Brock Purdy how he feels about rain on the football. Heck, Fox game analyst Greg Olsen practically delivered an oral thesis on the subject during San Francisco’s narrow win over the Packers last week.

While the Santa Clara weather looks perfect for 49ers vs. Lions, the same cannot be said for Baltimore’s outlook ahead of the AFC Championship Game. With the elements expected to play a role in Chiefs vs. Ravens, we’re focusing on that game and how bettors can use the weather to find an edge.

Will Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson get washed out and in turn drown OVER bettors in sorrow? It’s time to put our meteorologist hats on and determine if the weather will add value or volatility to our conference title bets.

Baltimore weather forecast for Chiefs vs. Ravens

All odds and insights courtesy of BetMGM.

Though a cold front came through the Baltimore area on Friday and heavy showers are expected on Saturday evening and into Sunday morning, the worst of it should be over by the 3:00 p.m. ET kickoff of Ravens-Chiefs.

It will be chilly, with temperatures in the low to mid 40s and brisk wind gusts blowing 15-20 miles per hour, and showers could present themselves throughout the game. But the torrential stuff will have already moved up into the North Atlantic.

The sportsbooks have held steady with the over/under projection for the AFC title game, which opened at 45 and now sits at 44.5. A whopping 77 percent of this game’s over/under tickets (and 74 percent of its O/U handle) have been on the OVER.

This has likely put the books in a bit of a pickle, as they faced the decision of (a) leaving the total as is and going into the weekend with a massive OVER liability or (b) raise the total and run the risk of UNDER bettors cashing in on the wet, windy conditions. 

Chiefs-Ravens best bets, betting tips based on weather forecast

Considering we’re dealing with two MVP quarterbacks, one the most clutch in the league and the other the most electric QB playmaker alive, we can’t imagine trying to capitalize on light storm conditions and smashing the UNDER.

Both these QBs have plenty of experience playing in the elements. Just two weeks ago, reigning MVP and Super Bowl MVP Mahomes destroyed the Dolphins 26-9 with the temp at minus-4 degrees with a windchill of 27 below at kickoff. As for presumed league MVP Jackson, he hasn’t been bad despite admitting multiple times that he doesn’t like playing in the elements. 

In five rain games, LJax has completed 56.8% of his passes for 174 yards per game and thrown six touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s also averaged 80 rushing yards per rain game. However, fumbles have been an issue, as he has put eight on the ground and lost four of them).

We still like Baltimore to pull this one off. The Ravens have been the most dominant all-around team in the AFC, with a stifling defense, an unstoppable QB, and playmaking pass-catchers like rookie wideout Zay Flowers and young tight end Isaiah Likely. Veteran TE Mark Andrews coming off the IR serves as icing on the cake. We like Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce to hit their respective yardage OVERs, but we like Baltimore to get the W at home.

Bet the Ravens -2.5 (buy a point) at -175. Consider betting Jackson OVER 0.5 interceptions (+110) but also OVER 65.5 rushing yards (-115). We also like Isiah Pacheco OVER 62.5 rushing yards (-115) and Pacheco (-190) to out-gain Gus Edwards on the ground.

We’re targeting receiving yard OVER bets for Rashee Rice (59.5 at -120), Zay Flowers (42.5 at -110) and Travis Kelce (62.5 at -115). We also probably can’t stay away from LJax anytime TD (+100) and Mark Andrews anytime TD (+200), two talking points just waiting to happen on Sunday afternoon. 

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