Luckily we don’t have to figure out how good or not good 49ers QB Brock Purdy really is since this topic has been fruitlessly debated by media pundits as of late. Instead, we can focus our analytic gaze and strategize how to place winning Super Bowl 58 QB prop bets before San Francisco and Kansas City kick off in a few hours at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
This year’s big game will be a rematch of Super Bowl LIV from four years ago, albeit with Purdy under center rather than Jimmy Garoppolo for the Niners. SF is favored by and the O/U being placed at means oddsmakers anticipate a points total similar to the 51 scored in the Chiefs 31-20 victory the last time these teams met for all the marbles.
Purdy’s talent level, legacy and all that good stuff are hotly debated current topics. However, even if the Chiefs lose this game, there is nothing to do about Patrick Mahomes other than tip your cap to the fact that this will be the fourth time he’s reached the Super Bowl in six seasons as a starter. It turns out that the reports of Mahomes being dependent upon superstar speedster Tyreek Hill were greatly exaggerated.
Since we don’t have to waste energy arguing about who will or won’t end up in Canton, let’s take the easier path and figure out how to approach some Super Bowl LVIII QB props.
QB prop bets for 49ers vs. Chiefs Super Bowl 58
Check out NFL prop odds on QB passing touchdowns for 49ers vs. Chiefs:
QB props & odds: Calculating how well SF, KC will be slinging the rock on Sunday
The last two teams standing this year both passed the ball really well throughout the season. San Francisco finished with the fourth-ranked passing attack, averaging 257.9 YPG. Kansas City clipped at their heels, finishing sixth while netting 246.4 YPG.
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 239 YPG in the playoffs, but that slight dip can be explained by the clock-killing strategy the Chiefs employed against the Dolphins during the Wild Card round since they were up big early in that game. He hasn’t thrown an interception thus far.
Brock Purdy has averaged 259.5 YPG in the postseason with one pick, but these numbers could be different if not for such a fortuitous bounce off a Lions defender that resulted in a 51-yard catch in the NFC Championship game.
49ers vs. Chiefs passing props odds for Super Bowl 58: Sizing up a matchup unlikely to be a shootout
Brock Purdy OVER touchdowns
The 49ers have so many weapons it can be dicey predicting who will get the most scoring opportunities, and CMC’s rushing TDs every week is also a complicating factor. However, look for George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and CMC out of the backfield through the air to guide Purdy to the OVER here.
Patrick Mahomes OVER passing touchdowns
Get saucy and parlay the OVER on passing TD props for both QBs this Super Bowl Sunday. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Travis Kelce notch a multi-TD game. Breakout rookie receiver Rashee Rice has been targeted 25 times thus far in the playoffs, albeit with just one TD. Look for these totals to jump and for Mahomes to continue his trend of high-level play in the game that matters most.
Brock Purdy to throw an interception
Purdy’s poise and ball protection thus far in his career and this postseason have been very good, as his one pick in 77 passing attempts in the playoffs attests. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is no stranger to creating complex blitzing packages to keep high-powered offenses in the Super Bowl befuddled. Look for some type of exotic blitz to prompt Purdy to get picked on Sunday.
Patrick Mahomes OVER completions
Mahomes and Kansas City are certainly still thriving without the big-play focused offense Tyreek Hill helped them run, but in his absence the KC attack has predictably taken on a new look. The Chiefs should do a decent amount of underneath and short-range passes, leading to this prop going OVER.
Brock Purdy OVER passing yards
To build a lead over KC, the 49ers will need to air it out. And if they fall behind they’ll have to throw even more. With game script less of a concern than it will be for non-QB player props, this is one we could see Purdy breeze by well before the clock hits zero.