Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction, odds, expert football betting tips and best bets for La Liga match

Real Madrid look to keep hold of their strong La Liga title advantage as they travel to meet Valencia on Saturday in a primetime late kickoff from the Mestalla.

The Spanish top flight leaders hold a six-point gap atop the standings over second-place Girona and third-place Barcelona, but having been held to a pair of draws in their last four league games, they have looked slightly more vulnerable in recent weeks and could find themselves within striking distance with any more slips.

They’ve sorely missed Jude Bellingham in his absence due to an ankle injury, as Madrid have struggled to create chances in bulk. They have scored just a single goal in each of their three matches in which he was sidelined, relying on a similarly injury-riddled defensive unit which feels a shaky proposition long-term.

While it’s possible that Bellingham will be available for Real Madrid in this match, the widespread reporting indicates that it will almost surely be in a reserve capacity, as Los Blancos target his full return in the upcoming midweek Champions League match.

Valencia sit amidst the mid-table doldrums this season, in ninth position currently having fallen six points back of the European places with just one win in their last four league games, as one of Spain’s streakiest teams this year.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Real Madrid vs Valencia and bet La Liga matches

Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Real Madrid (-160)
  • Score prediction: Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid

The Real Madrid front line has been stunted without Jude Bellingham, but they’ve produced a few consecutive stifling defensive performances, and Los Blancos should be able to ride that tactic here once again regardless of whether Brahim Diaz can usher a positive attacking performance.

Valencia’s issues up front should give Real Madrid the comfort that one goal should be enough to win this, which is all they’ve been able to muster of late.

Valencia vs Real Madrid match facts

  • Date: Saturday, Mar. 2, 2024
  • Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Estadio de Mestalla (Valencia, Spain)
  • Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano, VAR: Jose Luis Munuera Montero
  • Last meeting: Real Madrid 5-1 Valencia (Nov. 11, 2023 | La Liga)

Valencia vs Real Madrid best bet

  • Pick: Real Madrid to keep a clean sheet
  • Odds: +125 (DraftKings)

While picking Real Madrid unders has been profitable in Jude Bellingham’s absence, the market has finally wisened up to the situation, and the odds are now sapped of their value. 

Let’s instead just focus on Valencia, who have suffered from the debilitating double affliction of poor chance creation and below-average finishing. Valencia have scored just 29 goals in 25 games this season, lower than all but one of the eight teams above them in the table, and less than or equal to five of the 11 teams below them in the table as well.

Leading goal scorer Hugo Duro has feasted on scraps lately, without more than two shots in any league game since mid-December. They’ve tried every possible combination of players up front to support their talisman, and nothing has been successful. With Real Madrid largely able to keep a lid on games, and the emergence of Andriy Lunin in goal (who weirdly took over from Kepa despite the Chelsea loanee’s exceptional performances of his own) has added a further boost to their solidity.

Valencia vs Real Madrid prop bet

  • Pick: Valencia over 2.5 cards
  • Odds: -105 (FanDuel)

There’s a lot of needle in this match at the Mestalla. Last time Real Madrid came here, Vinicius Jr was racially abused, and it sparked a really heated tie that resulted in seven yellow cards and one red card shown between the sides, including five bookings to Valencia and the sending off of Vinicius.

For this match, Valencia have refused Netflix access to any matchday coverage, as the streaming service is following Vinicius Jr around for an upcoming documentary, indicating they are happy to further increase tension between the clubs.

The gameday combined total of over 5.5 yellow cards at just -110 is a huge bar to clear even given the expected venom in this game, but Valencia should be good for this muted sum.

Valencia vs Real Madrid live stream, TV channel

  TV channel Streaming
USA ESPN Deportes Fubo USA, ESPN+, WatchESPN
Canada  — TSN+
UK  — LaLigaTV

In the United States, every match of the 2023/24 La Liga campaign is available to stream in both  on ESPN+ all season long. Additionally, ESPN have earmarked this match between Real Madrid and Valencia for Spanish-language television broadcast on ESPN Deportes, which is available to stream on Fubo.

In Canada, the La Liga broadcast rights are owned by TSN, who have selected this match for exclusive streaming on TSN+. In the UK, it will also be exclusively streamed by LaLigaTV.

If Real Madrid vs. Valencia is not available to watch live in your location or if you’re traveling abroad, you can use a Virtual Private Network (VPN).

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