Bayern Munich vs Lazio prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League second leg

Struggling giants Bayern Munich fight for their Champions League lives as the Bavarian club hosts Italian side Lazio in the second leg of their Round of 16 knockout battle.

Bayern are struggling through a brutal stretch of games in which they have fallen almost out of contention in the Bundesliga title race and were beaten by Lazio 1-0 in the first leg of their European matchup.

Harry Kane is on the receiving end of jeers as fans point out his continued lack of trophies has carried over from his Tottenham days. As the domestic league title seems to slip away, and the DFB-Pokal is no longer in play, the Champions League may well be Bayern’s last hope for silverware in Kane’s first season.


Lazio are buried deep in the Serie A table as they toil through a season bereft of consistency, but they will know Bayern are in a position of vulnerability and will look to take full advantage.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Bayern Munich vs Lazio and bet Champions League matches

Bayern Munich vs Lazio odds

Despite their aggregate deficit in this matchup and their larger struggles on the whole, the market still expects Bayern Munich to advance to the quarterfinals, and in quite comfortable fashion.

Lazio’s spotty domestic form likely doesn’t help, as they’ve lost two of three Serie A matches since their first-leg triumph over Bayern, including 2-1 defeats to Bologna and Fiorentina, despite taking the lead in both games.

Bayern Munich vs Lazio prediction

  • Moneyline lean: Draw (+550)
  • Score prediction: Bayern Munich 1-1 Lazio

Quite simply, Bayern Munich will never be more vulnerable than they are now. They have won just one of their last five matches, and have not kept a clean sheet since January 24 against offensively anemic Union Berlin.

Lazio know they will simply need to defend in numbers and poach a goal, and they are through to the quarterfinals. The Italians will never have a better chance to snatch a huge scalp and advance to the quarterfinals.

Bayern Munich vs Lazio match facts

  • Date: Tuesday, Mar. 5, 2024
  • Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Allianz Arena (Munich, Germany)
  • Referee: Slavko Vincic (SVN), VAR: Nejc Kajtazovic (SVN)
  • Last meeting: Lazio 1-0 Bayern Munich (Feb. 14, 2024 | Champions League)

Bayern Munich vs Lazio key stats

  • Four of Lazio’s 10 defeats in Serie A play this season have come in matches where they held a lead at some point, including each of their last two. Bayern Munich, however, have just two wins and one draw from their seven Bundesliga games in which they trailed at any point.
  • Bayern Munich have failed to advance in each of the last seven times they have suffered a first-leg defeat in Champions League knockout play, falling short against Man City (2022/23 QF), Villarreal (2022/23 QF), PSG (2020/21 QF), Real Madrid twice (2017/18 SF, 2016/17 QF), Atletico Madrid (2015/16 SF), and Barcelona (2014/15 SF). The last time they turned around a first-leg deficit was against Porto in the 2014/15 quarterfinals, when they won the second leg 6-1 to reverse a 3-1 road defeat in Portugal, just prior to the aforementioned defeat to Barcelona.
  • The last time Bayern Munich were defeated in a Round of 16 second leg was against Liverpool at home in 2018/19, which is also the last time they were eliminated at this stage of the competition.
  • Lazio have only reached the Champions League quarterfinals once in club history, coming in their first-ever foray in the UCL back in 1999/00. There, they were defeated by Valencia despite securing a 1-0 home win in the first leg, losing 5-2 in the second leg in Spain.

Bayern Munich vs Lazio team news

The German giants will be without defender Dayot Upamecano who is suspended after being sent off in the first leg, also having served a suspension domestically after a red card against Bochum. Kingsley Coman and Bouna Sarr are long-term absentees with ACL tears, Noussair Mazraoui is absent due to a hamstring injury. There are questions about the availability of Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane, who are dealing with general fitness concerns.

Lazio are looking mostly full-strength, with only injuries to Patric and Nicolo Rovella to worry about. Patric came off the bench late in the first leg but since suffered an ankle injury in domestic play, while Rovella has been nursing a groin problem since early February. Midfielder Matias Vecino missed the first leg with a muscle injury but has returned, as has winger Mattia Zaccagni.

Bayern Munich vs Lazio best bet

  • Pick: Both teams to score — YES
  • Odds: +110 (DraftKings)

The defensive situation for Bayern Munich is currently a disastrous mess. The German giants have been forced into starting Eric Dier, with Dayot Upamecano’s discipline having evaporated, leaving the French international suspended for this match after his red card in the first leg.

Lazio are far from the most offensively explosive side, but they managed to generate 11 shots worth 1.69 xG in the first leg despite less than 40 percent possession. Over the weekend, they put together 11 more efforts worth 1.38 xG against defensively adept AC Milan, even while completely losing their composure down the stretch.

There’s goals in this game for the Italians at Allianz Arena, and a desperate Bayern should manage to snatch at least one of their own, even if it doesn’t see them through to the next round.

Bayern Munich vs Lazio prop bet

  • Pick: Jamal Musiala to score or assist a goal
  • Odds: +110 (FanDuel)

After struggling to live up to his hype for much of the season, Jamal Musiala has rounded into form the last few weeks and is attempting to lift the Bayern Munich attack on his own. While Harry Kane remains a dangerous threat up front, it’s Musiala pulling the strings, with two goals and an assist in his last three Bundesliga matches.

Musiala was solid in the first leg against Lazio as well, ripping off four shots and creating one big chance as well. The 21-year-old should be tasked with much of the heavy lifting here as well, with Thomas Muller looking cooked and the fitness of both Leroy Sane and Serge Gnabry in question.

Bayern Munich vs Lazio flier bet

  • Pick: Lazio to win either half
  • Odds: +340 (DraftKings)

The odds being swung so far in Bayern Munich’s favour in this match present an opportunity. Lazio should have the wherewithal to find the net, as covered above, and yet they remain a defensive force. If they can strike early in this match, their desire to reach halftime without conceding will be strong, and if they find a late goal, it could push Bayern to get exceedingly desperate late and let in a second.

Both these teams have an even split across both halves in terms of when they score and concede goals, so picking one or the other would be chancy, but expecting Lazio to fight hard for at least 45 minutes would be a big win at such positive value.

Bayern Munich vs Lazio live stream, TV channel

  TV channel Streaming
USA TUDN, Univision Paramount+Fubo USA, ViX
Canada  — DAZN
UK TNT Sports 1 discovery+

The exclusive English-language rights-holder for the UEFA Champions League in the United States is CBS, who streams every single match on Paramount+. Additionally, a televised Spanish-language broadcast is available on TUDN and Univision, with those channels streaming on Fubo as well as ViX.


In Canada, every match of the 2023/24 UEFA Champions League is streamed by DAZN. In the UK, this knockout stage game will be televised on TNT Sports 1 and streamed on their platform discovery+, while the other match between PSG and Real Sociedad at the same kickoff time will be on TNT Sports 2.

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