Raptors vs. Pelicans predictions, player props and best bets against the spread and moneyline

The Raptors face their first big challenge without Scottie Barnes on Tuesday, hosting Zion Williamson and the 36-25 Pelicans at Scotiabank Arena (7:30 p.m. ET). We’ll deep-dive the odds, stats and data for this inter-conference tilt, then serve up our best bets, top props and final score prediction.

The Pels last faced Toronto in New Orleans one month ago, obliterating Barnes and Company, 138-100. The Raptors have since gone 6-5 but were dealt a humongous loss when Barnes suffered a fractured metacarpal bone in his left hand against the Warriors on Friday night.

It’s a crippling blow to Darko Rajaković and Raptor Nation, and a massive advantage for Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and the Pelicans. New Orleans has quietly enjoyed a fantastic season, sitting top 6 in the West.

Toronto, meanwhile, sits 15 games under .500 at 23-38. It did win its first battle without Barnesy, albeit against the injury-ravaged Hornets. In contrast, Willie Green’s NOLA squad has the majority of its core rotation healthy and intact, including Zion, BI and big man Jonas Valanciunas. 

The Pels enter the evening as huge favorites, but it’s still imperative for us to analyze the odds and assess the value of the spread and over/under. Let’s dive into this one, discuss the matchup in more detail, and arrive at our best bets from BetMGM.

Raptors vs. Pelicans points spread and moneyline

All odds and props are from BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.

  • ATS: Pelicans -11.5 (-110) | Raptors +11.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Pelicans -600 | Raptors +450
  • Over/under: O 229.5 (-110) | U 229.5 (-110)

It comes as no surprise that the Pelicans enter as big favorites, considering the Raptors will be without their best player and New Orleans is only missing Dyson Daniels. The Pels have also won 10 of their past 14 games, including a 38-point drudging of the Raptors back at Smoothie King Center. 

Raptors vs. Pelicans predictions, best bets

We can’t possibly stay away from the Pelicans in this one. New Orleans can beat Toronto in so many ways: with the strong midrange games of Ingram and CJ McCollum, the floor-stretching ability of Jordan Hawkins, Herb Jones and Matt Ryan — and the strength of Zion and Big JV.

When these teams last met, the Pels enjoyed absurd shooting splits of 51/42/100 while racking up 36 assists and just seven turnovers (5.03 AST:TO ratio). Ingram dropped 41, McCollum had 20, Zion had 16 and three other Pels finished in double-digits.

The loss of Barnes means less scoring, less playmaking and rebounding. It takes away size, strength and a multifaceted skill set that no other Raptor possesses. More will be asked of veteran trade deadline acquisition Kelly Olynyk, but we’ve seen poor results in the recent past when coaches relied too much on KO. 

Toronto will have trouble finding and hitting open shots with NOLA not having to focus its energies on containing Barnes. This is just the Raps’ second game without its All-Star, its first test coming Sunday against a hapless Hornets squad. Darko’s guys got the win, but they shot just 42-of-91 from the floor and 13-of-38 from three-point land.

The Raptors can’t rely on rebounding against New Orleans, one of the eight best rebounding teams in the NBA. We’ve got the Pels destroying the Raps once again this evening, dropping Toronto to a dreadful 1-12 against Western Conference squads this season. 

An even better value this evening is the UNDER, which has hit in eight of New Orleans’ past nine road games as well as 11 of Toronto’s past 13 home games. Or, you can just hammer the Raptors’ UNDER, as the Raps managed just 100 last month against NOLA with Barnes and 111 against the woeful Hornets on Sunday. 

 SCORE PREDICTION: Pelicans 122, Raptors 104 — The Pelicans cruise to a victory (-600) and easily cover (-11.5), with the score going UNDER the total (229.5).

Raptors vs. Pelicans: Top player prop bet

Brandon Ingram points — OVER 24.5 (-115)

Ingram has feasted on the Raptors dating back to this time last year, posting point totals of 36 and 41 respectively. With Barnes injured and both O.G. Anunoby and Pascal Siakam shipped out by the trade deadline, BI’s job got much easier this evening. Don’t expect R.J. Barrett to have much luck slowing Ingram down — he should be able to get to his spots and drain open midrange jumpers all game.

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