Suns vs. Nuggets predictions, player props and best bets against the spread and moneyline

The Suns and Nuggets square off at Ball Arena in Denver on Tuesday night (10:00 p.m. ET) in a 2023 Western Conference Semifinals rematch.

The hits keep coming for the Suns, who have dropped two games in a row and five of their past 10. They also lost Devin Booker over the weekend to a rolled ankle, which looked much worse than the negative x-rays might suggest. The Suns are just 3-7 with Book inactive this season — including a loss to Denver back in December.

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As for the Nuggets, they appear to have dodged a bullet with the ankle injury Jamal Murray sustained against the Heat in the 2023 Finals rematch last Thursday. Murray came back two days later and put up 24 points and 11 assists across 36 minutes against the Lakers, overshadowing LeBron James who reached 40,000 points.

Let’s get to the BetMGM odds and uncover our best bets and top props for this Western Conference clash, hopefully leading you in the direction of some game and player prop cash. All odds and props are from BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.


Nuggets vs. Suns points spread, moneyline, and over/under

  • ATS: Nuggets -8.5 (-110) | Suns +8.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Nuggets -345 | Suns +275
  • Over/under: O 232.5 (-110) | U 232.5 (-110)

With the Nuggets at close to full strength, they enter the evening as solid -8.5 favorites versus the undermanned Suns. NBA insider Shams Charania recently reported that Booker would miss 7-10 days with his sprained ankle, so we’re certain Phoenix will be without his 27.5 point-per-game scoring punch.

Frank Vogel’s squad will also likely be without perimeter players Josh Okogie (hip) and Nassir Little (knee). The Nuggets cited “personal reasons” for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s missed game on Saturday against his former team, the Lakers, but he should be back in action on Tuesday.


Nuggets vs. Suns predictions, best bets

Simply put, everything points to a Denver win and cover this evening. The Nuggets have won six games in a row (and covered five of those six), they have gone 10-1 over their past 11 home games, and they have shot 51.9 percent from the floor over their past three games.

Conversely, the Suns have lost four of their past six contests, and failed to cover in five of those six. They have lost each of their past five games at Ball Arena and gone just 2-8 against the spread over their past 10 meetings with Denver.

That’s all bad news for Phoenix, which has gone just 4-7 against Denver dating back to Christmas 2022. The Nuggets had their way with the Suns 4-2 in the second round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs, winning Games 5 and 6 by a combined total of 41 points.

So, yeah, we like the reigning champs behind grand maestro of the league Nikola Jokic. They’ve got it together, a half-game out of first, and appear to be investing in Championship No. 2 with a solid portfolio. The Suns are struggling paycheck to paycheck with poor results and a murky longterm outlook (translation: don’t buy stock in their Finals odds.).

MORE: Joker could lead the NBA in scoring…if he wanted

Scoring has hardly been the only problem for Phoenix, which has topped out at 110 points or fewer in four of its past five games. The Suns also can’t hold onto the ball or take away the ball, as evidenced by their horrendous 18.3 turnovers and 10.7 forced turnovers per game over their past three contests (third-most and third-fewest, respectively…we’re not even mad — that’s amazing!).

When you commit 21 turnovers against the Thunder and only force them into five, OKC can get away with shooting 29 percent from three-point range. When you give the Rockets 26 free-throw attempts and let them drain 16 treys, you lose a home game you should probably win.

The Suns should not win this game, nor should they even cover. Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets look poised to sweep in and win the West for the second straight season, setting the stage for Joker’s third MVP and a run at a repeat championship.

Don’t get cute and bet a struggling team that struggles the most mightily in the Rockies — the logical choice is Denver -8.5 and the UNDER, the latter of which has hit in seven straight Suns’ games.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Nuggets 119, Suns 107 — The Nuggets cruise to victory (-345) and easily cover (-8.5), with the score going UNDER the total (232.5).


Suns vs. Nuggets: Top player prop bet

Nikola Jokic triple-double — No (-140)

We’re taking the plus odds here because we flat-out don’t think Joker needs to record a triple-double for the Nugs to win this game. The man many deem a walking triple-double has actually failed to record one in nine of the Nuggets’ past 11 regular-season tilts with Phoenix.

And did you see Jusuf Nurkic against the Thunder on Sunday night!? The man had 31 boards, the most in the NBA in over a decade! Jokic might spend the majority of Denver’s defensive possessions boxing Nurk out to keep the 290-pounder from an encore performance on the glass.

For that reason, we also like the correlating OVERs on Aaron Gordon’s 6.5 rebounds (-125) as well as Michael Porter Jr.’s 7.5 (-135). Three top props for the price of one — you can’t beat that with a bat!


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