Patriots 2024 NFL Draft odds: Who will New England pick at No. 3 overall?

Here’s something you rarely see at the start of a football article: the New England Patriots own the third overall pick in next month’s NFL Draft. It’s their first top-five selection in 30 years, and the first time in the 21st century that someone other than Bill Belichick will be at the helm. 

Let the rebuild begin, New England, with Jerod Mayo as head coach and Eliot Wolf as the new GM. They both have huge shoes to fill and downright impossible acts to follow, but expectations will be low coming off the Pats’ injury-ravaged and offensively-inept 4-13 season (tied for worst in the AFC). Change is in order and Wolf could go in any number of directions on Thursday, April 25.

MORE: Comparing the latest NFL mock drafts

Caleb Williams highlights a foursome of stud QBs projected as early picks. Elite receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has also generated plenty of buzz, with many liking his chances of joining the pantheon of young greats like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. Even offensive tackle Joe Alt would make sense, although the odds — and most experts — lean toward the Pats taking a skill-position player.

Let’s reveal the most updated DraftKings’ odds board for New England’s third overall selection, then discuss the favorites, fades, and sleepers to land in Foxboro for the new era of Patriots’ football.

Patriots 2024 NFL Draft odds: Who will New England pick at No. 3 overall?

Player Odds
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU +150
Drake Maye, QB, UNC +150
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio St. +230
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan +700
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame +4000
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon +4000
Caleb Williams, QB, USC +4500
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington +5000
Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn St. +5000
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU +6000
Laiatu Latu, DL, UCLA +6000
Jared Verse, DL, FSU +6000
Dallas Turner, LB, Alabama +6000
Brock Powers, TE, Georgia +6000
Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas +10000
JC Latham, OT, Alabama +10000
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa +10000
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon St. +10000
Spencer Rattler, QB, S. Carolina +10000
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington +10000

* odds via DraftKings

Patriots 2024 NFL Draft betting favorite

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU (+150)

Daniels and Drake Maye sit atop the odds board for pick No. 3, with the majority of draft experts and NFL pundits believing the Patriots will move on from perennially digressing QB Mac Jones. We love Daniels for the Pats and we’re pulling the trigger on him now while he’s still at plus odds here.

The overwhelming consensus among mock drafts is that USC stud Caleb Williams will go first to the Bears. He’s at -1200 to be picked first overall, a 92.3% probability, while Maye is the odds-on favorite at -125 to go No. 2 to Washington (Daniels sits at +110 at No. 2).

We like Daniels at No. 3 because of his pinpoint ball placement, his composure and quick thinking under pressure, and his unique balance of accuracy and athleticism. He seems like the best option to build a new offense around, and he’s our best bet to land No. 3 overall as long as the Cali native and LSU product is okay with the winter weather of New England.

MORE DANIELS: Patriots rumors | Why he didn’t throw at the Combine

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (+230)

Many believe that New England will opt for UNC quarterback Drake Maye (+150) if they don’t select Daniels. However, we think Maye will already be picked by the Commanders at No. 2, and thus Harrison Jr. serves as the only other logical choice for the Pats here.

MHJ’s an elite talent who creates separation, stretches the field and dazzles after the catch. He could be the next superstar NFL wideout, the type of asset New England hasn’t enjoyed at the position since Randy Moss. 

If the Patriots end up selecting Harrison Jr., look for them to pursue Buccaneers Pro Bowler Baker Mayfield, 2023 Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco, or maybe even recent Broncos castaway Russell Wilson.

They could also make a trade for Bears QB Justin Fields or trade up from their 34th pick to select a QB like Michael Penix Jr. or J.J. McCarthy a little later in the first.

MORE: Ranking the QBs in 2024 free agency

Patriots 2024 NFL Draft sleeper

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington (+5000)

Penix Jr. easily serves as our favorite sleeper outside the big three QBs in this draft, and he could surprise the masses. Penix has been lauded by many draft analysts as the best pure thrower in this class, and he exhibited underrated athleticism in multiple big games last season.

The concerns about Penix’s injury history are valid and it’s quite possible New England simply waits until pick No. 34 to select him — or trades up from 34 to nab him late in the first.

QBs with shaky knees have been known to scare GMs, and the Pats would need to prioritize the offensive line if they started the draft with Harrison and Penix. Selecting and not protecting Penix would be a recipé for disaster.

Patriots 2024 NFL Draft fade

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan (+700)

Many were pleasantly surprised by McCarthy’s poise during interviews and physical performance at the NFL Combine, and the familiar narrative of an efficient sleeper QB from Michigan is not lost on us (calm down, people, he’s no Thomas Edward Brady).

Here’s why we’re fading McCarthy while so many are favoriting him: he’s a little too slow and way too skinny (6-3, 202), similar to current failed QB project, Mac Jones. Sure, he has good arm speed and has flashed signs of being able to throw on the run. But Michigan primarily operated as a run-first offense under Jim Harbaugh, so we never really got to see McCarthy open it up, so to speak.

Another reason to fade McCarthy is that New England won’t need to draft him at No. 3. If he’s their target, they might be able to trade down to get him. Regardless of whether the Pats do like McCarthy, it seems highly unlike he will go third overall.

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