Arsenal vs Porto prediction, odds, expert betting tips and best bets for Champions League second leg

Two teams in blistering form clash for 90 minutes to decide their European fates as Arsenal host Porto at the Emirates Stadium in the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 matchup.

After Porto secured a thrilling, last-gasp victory over Arsenal at Estadio do Dragao two weeks ago on Galeno’s late goal, the Portuguese side parlayed that boost of confidence into a 5-0 thrashing of rivals Benfica in league play, giving them new life in a seemingly lost domestic title fight.

Arsenal, meanwhile, see that gutting late defeat to Porto as their only adverse result in their last nine matches, having won eight straight in Premier League play to put the Gunners back in the thick of their title fight as well.

The Gunners saw a lot from Brentford what they can likely expect from Porto today, as the visitors will surely look to slow the game down and kill clock with any means necessary to preserve their first-leg advantage and force Arsenal to panic as they watch the time tick down.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Arsenal vs Porto and bet Champions League matches

Arsenal vs Porto odds

Despite the one-goal disadvantage, Arsenal are heavily expected to advance past Porto and secure a position in the quarterfinals, holding around 1/3 odds to move on.

The Gunners are favored by around 1.5 goals, and they are expected to run up the score at home with the goals total hovering just above three.

Arsenal vs Porto prediction

  • Moneyline lean: Arsenal (-425)
  • Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Porto

The job is clear for Arsenal in this second leg, and as the clearly better side, they will manage to see it through. Porto will make life difficult, that’s for sure, but this Gunners team has a stronger mentality than past Arsenal squads which may have struggled to break down bunkered opponents as frustration sets in.

Arsenal vs Porto match facts

  • Date: Tuesday, March 12, 2024
  • Kickoff time: 8 p.m. local (4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT)*
  • Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
  • Referee: Clement Turpin (FRA), VAR: Jerome Brisard (FRA)
  • Last meeting: Porto 1-0 Arsenal (Feb. 21, 2024 | Champions League)

* The United States has already transitioned one hour ahead for daylight savings time, but European nations do not do so until March 31, and thus the time difference is currently four hours to the UK and five hours to Europe, instead of the traditional five/six hour difference during this small window.

Arsenal vs Porto key stats

  • Arsenal have not reached the Champions League quarterfinals since 2009/10, when they advanced past Porto also after a one-goal defeat in the first leg, winning 5-0 in the second leg.
  • That 2009/10 Champions League comeback against Porto is the only time in the last nine attempts that Arsenal has managed to turn around a first-leg defeat in the Champions League knockout stage.
  • A goal contribution in this match would make Bukayo Saka just the second player in Champions League history to score or assist a goal in four straight home matches.

Arsenal vs Porto team news

The Gunners will be without Gabriel Martinelli who suffered a cut to his foot and missed the weekend match against Brentford. Otherwise, Arsenal sport a nearly fully fit squad. Goalkeeper David Raya is set to return after Aaron Ramsdale took over on the weekend with the former ineligible to play against his parent club. Takehiro Tomiyasu has not played for Arsenal in 2024, but could be set to return from an injury suffered while on international duty with Japan at the Asian Cup.

Porto striker Medhdi Taremi was injured shortly after AFCON duty and has not been able to return since that time, with a thigh problem keeping him out of the first leg and likely out of this match as well. Zaidu Sanusi, who was one of Nigeria’s breakout players in their run to the AFCON final, suffered a torn ACL in his first match back from international duty and will miss the foreseeable future.

Arsenal vs Porto best bet

  • Pick: Total goals in 1H — over 1.5
  • Odds: +120 (DraftKings)

When Arsenal have been under pressure to score goals in games, they have come out guns blazing and managed to remove any doubt across the later stages of the match.

Since falling in Portugal in the first leg of this tie, Arsenal have put up 12 goals in their three Premier League matches against Newcastle, Sheffield United, and Brentford — eight of those 12 goals were scored in the first half. Mikel Arteta publicly challenged his team to run up the score on hapless Premier League opposition to secure a goal differential advantage in the title race, and they answered the call.

Porto will do everything in their power to keep a lid on this match, knowing even one Arsenal goal could sink the visitors at the Emirates Stadium. It will largely be one-way traffic, and the Gunners were able to break the Bees down on the weekend after the Premier League opponents utilised much of the same tactics they will face in this match.

Arsenal vs Porto prop bets

  • Pick: Galeno 1+ shots on target
  • Odds: +125 (FanDuel)

While Arsenal hope to keep themselves on top of this match, they will have to manage the counter-attacking abilities of Porto’s Brazilian forward Galeno, who was the hero late in the reverse fixture in Portugal. Galeno feeds off Porto’s ability to generate high turnovers by the opposition, with five goals in six Champions League appearances this season.

Galeno has scored in three of their last four league matches, including a brace in the big 5-0 victory over Benfica recently. He should find a moment to test David Raya, even if Porto don’t manage to score off the opportunity.

Arsenal vs Porto flier bet

  • Pick: Bukayo Saka to score and assist a goal
  • Odds: +440 (FanDuel)

Arsenal have been exceptional at home, and nobody embodies that more than Bukayo Saka, who has delivered the goods at the Emirates Stadium in European football this season.

Saka delivered a goal and assist in all three of Arsenal’s home matches in the Champions League group stage, and the recent 2-1 win over Brentford finally ended a streak of eight straight Premier League games in which Saka had delivered at least one goal contribution.

Arsenal vs Porto live stream, TV channel

  TV channel Streaming
USA  — Paramount+, ViX
Canada  — DAZN
UK TNT Sports 1 discovery+

This match will be shown in English exclusively on Paramount+ in the United States, as CBS Sports leaves the game to be only available on its streaming service. There is also a Spanish-language stream available from ViX.

In Canada, the sole broadcaster of the UEFA Champions League is DAZN, while in England this match featuring a Premier League club is slated for television on TNT Sports 1.

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