Duke or Vermont? How to pick 4 vs. 13 matchup in 2024 March Madness bracket

The world’s most famous dance is back for another year, and it’s not all too different than those less famous dances many attend in high school. Hearts will be broken, memories will be made, and there are more than a few upsets along the way.

In March, however, we crown champions when 64 teams tango for the right to etch their names into the history books. 

As expected, plenty of eyes will be on the No. 4 seed Duke Blue Devils, but the No. 13 seed Vermont Catamounts aren’t just going to go away quietly.

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The expectation is that Duke should cruise through into the Round of 32, but can Vermont deliver an upset in Brooklyn? Sporting News breaks down this NCAA Tournament matchup that will determine who has a right to play the winner of Wisconsin and James Madison.

EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (UConn) | Bender (UConn) | Iyer (UConn) | Yanchulis (South Carolina women)

Duke vs. Vermont odds

It comes as no surprise that Duke has the edge over Vermont, according to odds from BetMGM. The Blue Devils are one of the top teams in the country and find themselves on the right side of history with the 4 vs. 13 matchup. Considering Duke’s big following and popularity with bettors, this line could be quick to move in Duke’s favor in the lead-up to tipoff. 

Below, you can find odds and details about the first-round matchup, including time, date, and TV channel.

  • Odds: Duke -11.5
  • Date: Friday, March 22
  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Arena: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, N.Y.

Duke (24-8, 15-5 ACC)

Duke comes into the dance limping after having taken a few punches to the gut in recent weeks. After riding a three-game winning streak into the regular season’s final game, the Blue Devils were dealt another loss to rival North Carolina before crashing out of the ACC Tournament courtesy of NC State.

The bad taste left by those two losses can shift with a convincing win, as Jon Scheyer’s team stares down a tough road in the south region. The coach enters his second NCAA Tournament at the helm following the departure of Mike Krzyzewski, hoping for a better result than a second-round knockout like last season. 

Scheyer’s team came into the season with big expectations after returning four starters and a top recruiting class. By all accounts, Duke was primed for a return to the top of college basketball.

An inconsistent season has led to falling out of favor with some, while others soured after seeing their struggles down the stretch. Still, Duke is capable of turning it on and making a run even in a strong region. They’ll have to rely on the likes of Jeremy Roach and Kyle Filipowski to get where they want to go, but the stars and an elite offense give Duke as good a chance as anyone. 

  • NET ranking: 10
  • KenPom ranking: 8th
  • Quad 1 record: 5-4
  • Quad 2 record: 6-4
  • Quad 3 record: 7-0
  • Quad 4 record: 6-0
  • Offensive efficiency ranking: 7th
  • Defensive efficiency ranking: 26th

Key players

Kyle Filipowski (7-0, 248-pound sophomore center)

17.1 PTS, 8.2 REB, 2.8 AST

Jeremy Roach (6-2, 180-pound senior guard)

14.0 PTS, 2.5 REB, 3.1 AST

Jared McCain (6-3, 197-pound freshman guard)

13.4 PTS, 4.9 REB, 1.8 AST

Tyrese Proctor (6-5, 183-pound sophomore guard)

10.5 PTS, 3.0 REB, 3.8 AST

STREAM: Watch 2024 NCAA Tournament games live with Sling

Vermont (28-6, 15-1 America East)

The Catamounts — which is a mountain lion, for those unfamiliar — find themselves in a familiar spot as the tournament tips off.

They captured their fifth America East Conference championship in five years, marking their third straight appearance in the field of 64. But like March, these lions often go out like a lamb when the buzzer sounds. In nine previous NCAA Tournament appearances, Vermont has managed only two wins and escaped the first round just once. 

John Becker is still at the helm for the Catamounts, continuing his run of success as the winningest coach in program history. His team rolled through the America East Conference in his 13th season, riding a 10-game winning streak into Friday’s contest. They’ll be led by guard TJ Long — who rose to the occasion during the America East tournament averaging 14.3 points per game. 

Despite the difference in seeds, Vermont promises to be a challenge for Duke in the opening round. They’ll rely on their top-75 ranked defense to keep it close, where a few bounces could decide who survives and advances. 

  • NET ranking: 102
  • KenPom ranking: 104th
  • Quad 1 record: 0-2
  • Quad 2 record: 2-0
  • Quad 3 record: 9-3
  • Quad 4 record: 15-1
  • Offensive efficiency ranking: 159th
  • Defensive efficiency ranking: 62nd

Key players

TJ Long (6-4, 195-pound junior guard)

12.2 PTS, 4.0 REB, 1.4 AST

Shamir Bogues (6-4, 190-pound junior guard)

11.0 PTS, 5.3 REB, 2.5 AST

Ileri Ayo-Faleye (6-8, 210-pound junior forward)

7.8 PTS, 4.9 REB, 1.0 AST

MORE: Buy tickets to 2024 March Madness games

Duke vs. Vermont prediction

Upsets are always on the menu when it comes to March Madness. Vermont’s history isn’t the greatest in the tournament, but their experience could make them a popular upset pick given Duke’s recent form. While the Blue Devils could see some trouble down the road, it’s hard to believe they’ll overlook a Vermont team that should struggle to keep up on the scoreboard. 

Despite being a solid defensive team, the Catamounts don’t have an answer for someone like Filipowski. Their lack of a true center and height throughout the lineup makes the Duke star a nightmare to contend with. Vermont’s pace — fifth-slowest tournament team in tempo, according to KenPom — could limit possessions and keep it close. Don’t overthink it, however. Scheyer’s group will survive the opening round.

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

History of 4 vs. 13 matchups in NCAA Tournament

History tells us that Vermont isn’t likely to pull off an upset, as 13 seeds are just 32-120 against their 4th-seeded counterparts. That’s good enough for a .209 winning percentage and won’t inspire much confidence, especially against a talented Duke squad. 

But fear not, Vermont fans, as the Catamounts own one of those 32 wins, defeating Syracuse 60-57 in 2005. Of course, Furman’s remarkable buzzer-beater last year stands out among recent 13-4 upsets and proves just how wacky this tournament can be. 

Here’s a look back at all the 13 over 4 upsets since 2010.

Year Result
2023 Furman 68, Virginia 67
2021 Ohio 62, Virginia 58
2021 North Texas 78, Purdue 69
2019 UC Irvine 70, Kansas State 64
2018 Marshall 81, Wichita State 75
2018 Buffalo 89, Arizona 69
2016 Hawaii 77, California 66
2013 La Salle 63, Kansas State 61
2012 Ohio 65, Michigan 60
2011 Morehead State 62, Louisville 61
2010 Murray State 66, Vanderbilt 65

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