UConn vs. Alabama odds, prediction, betting trends for 2024 Final Four game

No. 1 overall seed UConn looks unbeatable with the Huskies gunning for their second straight national championship. Is No. 4 Alabama the next victim or a real threat to take UConn down? We’ll dig into this matchup ahead of Saturday’s March Madness Final Four game at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS.

UConn’s riding an 11-game winning streak and the Huskies are 4-0 ATS in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Danny Hurley’s team has been an absolute juggernaut with wins by 39, 30, 17, and 18 points so far.

Alabama has also covered ATS in all four tournament games with wins over the College of Charleston, Grand Canyon, North Carolina, and Clemson. The Crimson Tide are led by guard Mark Sears, who’s averaging a team-high 24.3 points per game during March Madness.

Alabama’s run-and-gun offense now faces a UConn defense that’s held three of four tourney opponents to 52 points. Northwestern came “closest” to beating UConn in a 75-58 loss in the second round.

Let’s take a look at UConn vs. Alabama odds, betting trends, and predictions ahead of Saturday’s Final Four matchup. 

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UConn vs. Alabama odds

Check out UConn vs. Alabama live odds at top-rated sportsbooks:

This seems like far too many points to be laying against an Alabama team that leads the nation in scoring at 90.6 ppg, right? Bet against UConn at your own peril, though, with the dominance its displayed during this March Madness run.      

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Three betting trends to watch 

  • UConn is cashing at a 70.3% clip as a favorite, going 26-11 in that role this season. The Huskies are 0-1 SU & ATS as an underdog after losing to Kansas 69-65 as a 3.5-point dog.
  • Alabama is 3-6 as an underdog on the season. This is the first time the Crimson Tide will be a double-digit dog.
  • Due to its stifling defense, UConn has gone 4-0 to the UNDER in this year’s NCAA Tournament. The OVER has cashed in three of Alabama’s four games. 

UConn key players

Where do you want to start? All five of UConn’s starters average in double figures. Guard Tristen Newton leads the way with 15 points, but you can make a case for center  Donovan Clingan being the team’s most valuable player.

Clingan scores 12.9 ppg but leads the Huskies in rebounds (7.5) and blocks (2.5) per contest. He impacts the game more at both ends of the floor.

Cam Spencer, Alex Carabao, and Stephon Castle are also major contributors on offense.  

Alabama key players

Senior guard Mark Sears is the headliner for Alabama with 21.5 ppg. Take a look at his March Madness scoring resume:

  • 30 points vs. College of Charleston
  • 26 points vs. Grand Canyon
  • 18 points vs. North Carolina
  • 23 points vs. Clemson 

Sears is lethal from 3-point range, and he’ll need to be on Saturday if ‘Bama hopes to keep it close against UConn. The Muscle Shoals, Alabama native makes 43.4% of his shots from behind the arc. Sears leads the team with 92 3-pointers on the season. 

It’s not all Sears, of course, as the Crimson Tide have three other players scoring in double figures. Aaron Estrada, Grant Nelson, and Rylan Griffen will also need to shoot it exceptionally well for Alabama to have any shot of winning.  

Best individual matchup: Donovan Clingan vs. Alabama ‘bigs’ 

It’s so tempting to look ahead to the potential matchup between 7-foot-2 Clingan vs. 7-foot-4 Zach Edey in the national championship game. Suffice to say that Alabama has nobody of that ilk to try and stop Clingan in the semifinals.

The Crimson Tide’s tallest player is 6-foot-11 forward Grant Nelson, who’s a bit wispy at 230 pounds. Clingan, who’s got 50 pounds on Nelson, did whatever he wanted to do against Illinois in the Elite 8 with 22 points and 10 rebounds.

That’s a scary proposition for Alabama and head coach Nate Oats.     

UConn vs. Alabama stat to know

UConn is 25-0 SU & 20-5 ATS when scoring more than 73 points this season. When was the last time the Huskies failed to score at least 73 points? That was on Feb. 21 in an 85-66 loss to Creighton. Not coincidentally, that was the last time UConn lost, too.  

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UConn vs. Alabama prediction

The heart says Alabama with a heap of points, but the head says lay the wood with UConn. It’d be a monumental story if the Crimson Tide wins to produce (perhaps) the biggest upset in a tournament filled with them this year. 

UConn’s defense is just too dominant. The Huskies are No. 1 in offensive efficiency at KenPom. That’s been an unbeatable combination so far in March Madness. Expect it to be the same on Saturday.

Prediction: UConn 85, Alabama 72. The Huskies (-11.5) cover the spread with the game going UNDER the total (161.5). 

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