Arsenal vs Bayern Munich prediction, stats, best bets for Champions League quarterfinal first leg

A mouth-watering Champions League quarterfinal matchup gets under way at the Emirates on Sunday, as Arsenal host old rival Harry Kane and Bayern Munich for the first leg.

It’s a scintillating pairing for a number of reasons, chief amongst them the return of former Tottenham star Kane, who spent years driving a stake through the hearts of Arsenal fans in the venomous north London derby. Now with Bayern, Kane is pushing through the only competition remaining which presents the possibility of winning a trophy.

2012 was the last time Bayern finished without a single trophy in hand, finishing as runners-up in three different competitions as they ended the domestic campaign second behind Borussia Dortmund while losing in both the Champions League and DFB-Pokal finals. This year, they are out of the league title race as Bayer Leverkusen run away with it, and their form down the stretch looks more and more toxic, most recently losing 3-2 to newly-promoted Heidenheim on the weekend after leading 2-0 at the break.

Arsenal will know that while the margins amidst the Premier League title race are razor-thin, there’s also a chance to create a memorable European run. The Gunners will look to avenge the 10-2 aggregate thrashing they received at the hands of Bayern last time they faced off in the Champions League, falling 5-1 in both legs of their Round of 16 matchup back in 2017.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Arsenal vs Bayern Munich and bet Champions League matches

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich odds

With Bayern Munich floundering domestically but Arsenal amidst the thick of the Premier League title race, the Gunners are heavy favourites at home against the German side. Since their three-match losing streak bracketing New Year’s Day, Arsenal have lost just once in 2024, coming in the first leg of their Round of 16 matchup against Porto on the road.

Furthermore, since the start of March, Arsenal have conceded just a single goal across six games, including matches against Manchester City and Porto.

Bayern will know they simply need to keep themselves within striking distance to have a chance of progressing in the second leg. They were beaten 1-0 at Lazio to begin their Round of 16 matchup but triumphed 3-0 at home to advance, marking the second time in their last four attempts of successfully turning around a first-leg defeat in the UCL knockouts.

  DraftKings
(USA)
Arsenal win -140
Draw +300
Bayern win +380
Both teams
to score
Y: -140
N: +110
Over / Under
2.5 goals
O: -140
U: +105
Arsenal
to advance
-180
Bayern
to advance
+145

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich prediction

  • Moneyline lean: Arsenal (-140 on DraftKings)
  • Score prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Bayern Munich

Almost all of Bayern Munich’s adverse results this year have come on the road — since the start of February, Bayern have lost to Bayer Leverkusen, Heidenheim, Bochum, and Lazio away from home, plus a draw with Freiburg. Another adverse result in a big home game against Borussia Dortmund serves to show how Bayern have pretty much punted on the league and focused on Europe, but their road form is the more concerning aspect.

The Gunners have one of the most organised defensive units in Europe, conceding just three goals in their last nine Premier League games, and Arsenal are happy to grind out games when necessary. Right now, Arsenal are simply the better team, and they’re worth backing not only in this match but across the two-legged tie as well.

MORE: Prediction & best bets for Real Madrid vs Man City in Champions League quarterfinal

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich match facts

  • Date: Tuesday, April 9, 2024
  • Kickoff time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
  • Referee: Glenn Nyberg (SWE), VAR: Pol van Boekel (NED)
  • Last meeting: Arsenal 1-5 Bayern Munich (Mar. 7, 2017 | Champions League)

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich key stats

  • In nine Premier League matches since the start of February, Arsenal have scored 31 goals, nine more than any other club, while conceding just three, four fewer than any other club. Their +28 goal differential across that span is more than double the next closest side (Man City, +13).
  • Since the introduction of the modern Champions League format in 1998, Bayern Munich’s three European crowns have all come amidst a season in which they also won the Bundesliga title.
  • Leandro Trossard has scored five goals off the bench for Arsenal this season in all competitions, one off the club record of six, held jointly by Olivier Giroud, Robin van Persie, and Kanu.

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich team news

For this stage of the season, while many other clubs suffer countless injuries that have decimated their rosters, Arsenal sport a shockingly fit squad. The Gunners are only missing Jurrien Timber who went down early in the campaign with an ACL tear, and looks close to a return. Otherwise, there are no fitness issues for Mikel Arteta to work around, a massive advantage with two huge title fights to come.

While Bayern Munich have a few fitness concerns for Thomas Tuchel to consider, they too enjoy a solid bill of health. Aleksandar Pavlovic missed the last match due to illness and is a doubt, but Leroy SaneManuel Neuer, and Noussair Mazraoui are all expected to prove fit to participate. The fitness of Kingsley Coman is still up in the air due to a thigh injury, but otherwise all first-choice players are available for selection.

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich best bet

  • Pick: Over 9.5 total corners
  • Odds: -118 (FanDuel)

As much as backing both teams to score is temping, at such muted value, it’s hard to trust Bayern to score against one of Europe’s most dominant back lines, considering they finished without a goal against both Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund in recent weeks.

It’s hard to even trust Bayern to rack up shots, after collecting just nine against a similarly organised defensive unit like Bayer Leverkusen in a comprehensive defeat. Arsenal may not pile them up either — they’re top in the Premier League in goals scored, but a distant third in shots generated.

Instead, there should be a healthy amount of chances from the corner flag. Both teams like to get vertical, and while both teams also concede few corners on the whole (both sport the least amount of corners conceded in their respective league), that’s largely due to their possessional dominance against inferior teams. Bayern saw 10 combined corners in their heavy defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, and 11 against Borussia Dortmund, while Arsenal and Man City collected 11 between them in their recent scoreless draw. This is a low bar to clear for these teams, even if the match ends with few goals scored.

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich prop bet

  • Pick: Martin Odegaard to score or assist a goal
  • Odds: +145 (FanDuel)
  • Pick: Jamal Musiala to score or assist a goal
  • Odds: +320 (FanDuel)

These are the two most dangerous chance creators on each team, and the two are in good form in both the creativity and finishing departments. If there are goals in this game, they will come from the playmaking of these two individuals.

Odegaard has been solid in front of goal, scoring three times in league play since the start of February. However, he’s been let down in the assist department, without a goal feed in his last six games despite 1.43 xA worth of key passes. The problem for the Norwegian is that Arsenal’s best and most prolific finisher, Bukayo Saka, usually creates his own opportunities, and that leaves Odegaard to feed the team’s worst finishers in Kai Havertz (starting) and Gabriel Jesus (benched). Still, he should eventually come good on this, and in a home match against defensively vulnerable Bayern, there will be plenty of opportunities to either score or create.

For Bayern, they are up against one of Europe’s most smothering defensive units, but they still create loads of opportunities. The club’s most in-form attacker right now is Serge Gnabry, but he’s mostly been relegated to a substitute role, and he got a rare start against Heidenheim over the weekend, indicating he could be dropped to the bench again as Thomas Tuchel rotates his side and prioritises European play.

Jamal Musiala has been the most electric starter, with five goals and four assists in the club’s last seven league games. His Champions League performances have been less profitable, but even so, he was unlucky in the 3-0 win over Lazio, ripping off five shots and creating four chances for teammates despite finishing without a goal contribution. The 21-year-old is still working on his consistency, but they’ll need him here to generate a road result.

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich flier bet

  • Pick: Arsenal to win from behind
  • Odds: +700 (DraftKings)

If there’s one thing Bayern Munich have been exceedingly poor at over the last few months, it’s coughing up late goals. Most recently, they blew a 2-0 halftime lead to recently promoted Heidenheim in a 3-2 defeat over the weekend, but it runs deeper than just that one result.

Bayern coughed up points to Freiburg in early March in a 2-2 draw, and wasted away an early lead at Bochum in mid-February. Arsenal are only 14th in the Premier League table when only looking at games in which they trailed, not for a lack of results, but instead for a lack of opportunities — the Gunners have only trailed in eight matches this season, lowest in the league by a considerable margin. In those games, they’ve generated two wins and two draws, and have the second-most goals in the final 15 minutes of games in the Premier League, only behind Liverpool.

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich live stream, TV channel

This enormous Champions League matchup will be televised in the United States on CBS, with the rights-holders placing the massive tilt on a network television channel. CBS is available to stream on Fubo, and the match will also be streamed on CBS Sports’ dedicated platform Paramount+, as every Champions League match across the season is. Finally, there is a Spanish-language stream available on ViX.

In the UK, the match will be televised domestically on TNT Sports 1, and streamed on the broadcaster’s dedicated streaming service discovery+. In Canada, the exclusive broadcast provider for the UEFA Champions League is DAZN, who will stream this as they do every game across this year’s UCL competition.

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