Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction, odds, stats, best bets for Champions League quarterfinal second leg

As both sides reel from recent domestic setbacks, Arsenal and Bayern Munich must put their league struggles aside to vie for a coveted place in the Champions League semifinals on Wednesday.

Arsenal suffered a stunning defeat to Aston Villa on Sunday which saw the Gunners squander their slim advantage at the top of the table after only just having grabbed it. Bayern, meanwhile, could only watch as Bayer Leverkusen confirmed their Bundesliga title, stopping a decade-long dominance for the Bavarians in the process.

Yet both know that even if domestic titles aren’t on the cards this season, European glory would be just as sweet. The two sides sit level on aggregate after a 2-2 draw at the Emirates Stadium last week, a disappointing result for Arsenal who now must win on the road if they wish to advance.

Arsenal fought back with moxy, as Leandro Trossard’s 76th minute goal at least afforded them a level scoreline, but they squandered an early lead thanks in large part to a pair of massive defensive errors. They can ill-afford those in Munich as Harry Kane will be seeking to overturn the perceived curse he has hanging over his head.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal and bet Champions League matches

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal odds

While the betting market was well and truly baffled by this match when the odds opened, favour has swung slightly towards the hosts, following Arsenal’s weekend debacle against Aston Villa. The Gunners were in good form heading into the first leg last week, but the disappointing draw with Bayern followed by capitulation in the Premier League title race has changed the air about them.

Now, Arsenal’s vulnerability to late-season collapses has crept back into the narrative, despite the hard work Mikel Arteta has logged hoping to change the perception of his side. If they fall short here, that slight will come exploding back into the mainstream.

  BetMGM
(USA)
Bayern win +130
Draw +270
Arsenal win +180
Both teams
to score
Y: -190
N: +135
Over / Under
2.5 goals
O: -175
U: +120
Bayern
to advance
-140
Arsenal
to advance
+100
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Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction

  • Moneyline lean: Arsenal (+180)
  • Score prediction: Bayern Munich 1-2 Arsenal

Mikel Arteta will have a massive job on his hands as he efforts to wipe his team’s memory of the weekend disappointment. Bayern Munich have been playing with the knowledge of their domestic disappointment for some time, knowing the Champions League is all they have left.

Yet if Arsenal play like they have been known to at their best, they can achieve a result here on the road in a hostile environment. In the first leg, Bayern capitalised on a pair of uncharacteristic Arsenal defensive mistakes, but outside their two goals, the German side created little in the way of chances in front of net. Leroy Sane was lively down the right against Jakub Kiwior, but incredibly, Arsenal still managed to keep him to zero shots and just one chance created.

If the Gunners can avoid making similar errors, a Bayern side without Serge Gnabry, Kingsley Coman, or Alphonso Davies available will find it difficult to match the output of the visiting English side.

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal match facts

  • Date: Wednesday, April 17, 2024
  • Kickoff time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Allianz Arena (Munich, Germany)
  • Referee: Danny Makkelie (NED), VAR: Rob Dieperink (NED)
  • Last meeting: Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Munich (Apr. 2, 2024 | Champions League)

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal key stats

  • With 18 goals on the season so far across all competitions, Bukayo Saka needs just two to become Arsenal’s first 20-goal scorer since Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored 29 in the 2019/20 season.
  • Harry Kane has 15 career goals in 20 matches across all competitions, but has suffered defeat in four of his last six games against the Gunners.
  • The last time Bayern Munich squandered a first-leg aggregate lead at home in the Champions League was to Arsenal back in the 2013 Round of 16, when they won 3-1 at the Emirates Stadium before falling 2-0 at home, but they managed to advance on penalties in that matchup. The last time they did so en route to elimination was in the 2011 Round of 16 when a 1-0 first-leg advantage from victory at the San Siro fell apart at home, losing in that penalty shootout.
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Bayern Munich vs Arsenal team news

Bayern Munich have a few significant injuries to deal with, most notably with in-form winger Serge Gnabry suffering another hamstring issue that will leave him sidelined, while fellow forward Leroy Sane is a doubt after missing the weekend league game against Koln with a knock. Versatile winger Kingsley Coman was injured against Koln, meaning he will miss out as well thanks to an adductor strain. Left-back Alphonso Davies is suspended for this leg due to yellow card accumulation, meaning Noussair Mazraoui will take over.

While Arsenal saw their league standing take a massive blow, their squad is at least fully fit. Only Jurrien Timber, who is close to returning from his early-season ACL tear, remains a concern for Mikel Arteta. Gabriel Jesus, who recently confirmed he’s managing a chronic knee issue, logged 79 minutes against Aston Villa on the weekend, while Gabriel Martinelli came off the bench and will be well-rested for a possible start in European action.

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal best bet

  • Pick: Both teams to score and either team to win
  • Odds: +115 (BetMGM)

Given the chaos of the first leg, there’s significant value on this game failing to reach extra-time at plus odds. Since the start of October, Bayern Munich have drawn just three matches across all competitions, including the first leg against Arsenal, while the Gunners have just five total in that span.

That means these two clubs have played to a combined eight draws in 67 games, or less than 12% of their matches. These two teams play to win, to a fault, which makes for great theatre.

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prop bet

  • Pick: Harry Kane anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +105 (BetMGM)

Harry Kane has been a thorn in Arsenal’s side for years, and just because we’re backing Arsenal to win doesn’t mean Kane won’t find the net himself.

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The former Spurs frontman has netted in 13 career games against Arsenal, but incredibly, only five of those games ended in victory for his team, while he has found the net in six draws and two defeats for his side.

Plus odds on Germany’s most in-form goal scorer are a gift worth taking, but Arsenal will have the ability to overcome him finding the net.

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal flier bet

  • Pick: Any team to come from behind and win
  • Odds: +475 (BetMGM)

The first leg featured both sides erasing a deficit, and while that game ended all square, the aforementioned aversion of both clubs to finish level again will likely mean that this will be another exciting affair. Sure, extra-time and penalties would be fun, but so too would be a thrilling comeback in regulation.

Neither side has been come-from-behind kings domestically, with Arsenal securing just eight points in Premier League play this season from nine games in which they trailed, while Bayern Munich have bagged 11 points from 11 such games in the German top flight. Still, both sides can be caught while ahead, especially Bayern who have proven mentally frail on multiple occasions.

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal live stream, TV channel

With the Man City vs. Real Madrid match being selected for television broadcast in the United States, this match between Bayern Munich and Arsenal will be streaming exclusively on Paramount+ in English. A Spanish-language broadcast is also available on ViX.

In the UK, this game will be televised on TNT Sports 2, with streaming available on their dedicated streaming platform discovery+.

In Canada, every match of the 2023/24 Champions League tournament, including this one, is streaming on DAZN.

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