AC Milan vs Inter prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Milan derby in Serie A

While there’s very little on the line at the top of the Serie A table with the season nearing a close, there is still plenty to battle for in Italy’s biggest rivalry matchup as AC Milan take on Inter at the San Siro on Monday.

Inter hold an unsurmountable 14-point lead at the top of the table, and with six games remaining they can mathematically confirm the title with victory in this game. While AC Milan’s spot in second appears nearly unchallenged as well, they will obviously wish to avoid being the side against which their biggest rival place both hands on the Scudetto.

Milan hold a five-point advantage over third-placed Juventus, but thanks to a 10-point lead over Bologna in fourth, and the recent mathematical confirmation of a fifth Champions League place for Italy next year, Milan’s spot in the coming UCL tournament is all but guaranteed.

With both sides out of Europe early, eliminated from the Coppa Italia, and with little to play for in the league, this rivalry match represents a de facto conclusion to the season for the two clubs, a fitting way to “end” a rollercoaster campaign for two Italian giants.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for AC Milan vs Inter and bet Serie A matches

AC Milan vs Inter prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Inter (+100)
  • Score prediction: AC Milan 1-3 Inter

While other competitions didn’t pan out in their favour, Inter have been utterly dominant in league play this season. AC Milan have done well against teams they’re expected to beat, but have struggled in big games, seeing them fall short on a number of occasions in matches where there’s anything concrete on the line.

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Milan were pummeled by Inter 5-1 in the reverse fixture back in mid-September, and they have won just once in five league games against Juventus, Napoli, and Atalanta. Add in key defeats to PSG and Borussia Dortmund which saw them crash out of the Champions League in the group stage, plus defeat in both legs against Roma in the recent Europa League quarterfinals, and their season has been utterly bereft of signature moments. Don’t expect one to arrive here against a team that’s quite simply better in every facet.

AC Milan win +275
Draw +250
Inter win +100
Both teams
to score
Y: -155
N: +105
Over / Under
2.5 goals
O: -135
U: -105
-0.5 goals
AC Milan
+0.5 goals

AC Milan vs Inter match facts

  • Date: Monday, April 22, 2024
  • Kickoff time: 8:45 p.m. local (2:45 p.m. ET / 11:14 a.m. PT)
  • Location: San Siro (Milan, Italy)
  • Referee: Andrea Colombo
  • Last meeting: Inter 5-1 AC Milan (Sep. 16, 2023 | Serie A)

AC Milan vs Inter best bet

  • Pick: Inter Milan over 1.5 goals
  • Odds: -115 (BetMGM)

While AC Milan’s forward unit is finishing out the season strong, their defensive line has already hit the beach weeks ago. Since the start of 2024, Milan have kept just six clean sheets in 22 matches across all competitions, including just one in their last seven games.

Inter, meanwhile, have no desire to slow down, bagging two goals in each of their last three games following a relatively slow March. February saw Inter put up four goals in four different matches, and they have displayed exceptional consistency up front across the campaign. Inter over 2.5 goals is juicy at +250, but given the March doldrums, sticking with the lesser pick is probably the smart play.

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AC Milan vs Inter prop bet

  • Pick: Lautaro Martinez anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +150 (BetMGM)

The man at the head of that attack is Lautaro Martinez, and while the Argentine has slowed somewhat as the season draws to a close, he was afforded rest against Cagliari last time out thanks to a yellow card suspension, and should return fresh for this rivalry game.

Lautaro loves a Milan derby, having scored eight goals in 15 games against Inter’s chief rivals. Having assisted two in the 5-1 win earlier this season, he’ll be itching to get back on the scoresheet for this one — the last time Lautaro went a full season without scoring against AC Milan across all competitions was the 2019/20 campaign, which currently stands as the only full season for Lautaro without a goal against Milan in his six seasons with Inter, but would have company if he fails to find the net here.

AC Milan vs Inter live stream, TV channel

The second league edition of the Milan derby this season is available in the United States exclusively on Paramount+, as CBS Sports have placed this match solely on its dedicated streaming platform.

In Canada, every match across the entirety of the Serie A season can be found on Fubo, including this derby meeting. In the UK, this match will be televised by rights-holders TNT Sports, with streaming on discovery+.


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