Kentucky Derby draw 2024: Odds to win, top long-shot sleeper picks and best post positions

With the 2024 Kentucky Derby post position draw taking place on Saturday evening, excitement has started to mount amongst fans and bettors alike for the 150th Run for the Roses on May 4.

While some changes to the field can be expected between now and the famed Churchill Downs event, FanDuel Racing has already listed its Kentucky Derby outright winner odds for the first leg of the Triple Crown.

Here’s a look at FanDuel Racing’s morning line odds along with the best bets, top sleepers, and highest-value long shots to win.

Kentucky Derby 2024: Odds to win

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Racing

Post Position Horse Odds
1 Dornoch 20-1
2 Sierra Leone 3-1
3 Mystik Dan 20-1
4 Catching Freedom 8-1
5 Catalytic 30-1
6 Just Steel 20-1
7 Honor Marie 20-1
8 Just a Touch 10-1
9 Encino 20-1
10 T O Password 30-1
11 Forever Young 10-1
12 Track Phantom 20-1
13 West Saratoga 50-1
14 Endlessly 30-1
15 Domestic Product 30-1
16 Grand Mo the First 50-1
17 Fierceness 5-2
18 Stronghold 20-1
19 Resilience 20-1
20 Society Man 50-1

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Kentucky Derby 2024: Best bets

The clear favorites in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field are Fierceness (5-2) and Sierra Leone (7-1), the two most dominant horses in the world right now. 

Fierceness (5-2)

The odds-on favorite and talk of the racing world has been Fierceness, coming off a big win at the 1-and-1/8-mile Florida Derby.

The 2023 Juvenile Champion, Fierceness has won three of his five races and has arguably established himself as the fastest horse in the nation. He should easily compete for the biggest betting handle to win the Run for the Roses.

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Sierra Leone (7-1)

Sierra Leone’s reputation continues to ascend, and he enters the weekend ranked No. 1 in racing. Leone enters the Fastest Two Minutes in Sports fresh off a commanding win at the Blue Grass Stakes.

In four career starts, he has racked up three first-place finishes and one second. He’s a fighter with a ton of heart, and he should garner a ton of betting interest between now and May 4. 

Kentucky Derby 2024: Top value pick

Catching Freedom (12-1)

Catching Freedom turned heads at the Louisiana Derby in late March. After trailing frontrunner Track Phantom by 7.5 lengths at one point and 2.5 lengths back at the eighth pole, Catching Freedom charged up the middle for an incredible last-to-first comeback win in the 1-and-3/16-mile race.

That unbelievable finish in the longest Kentucky Derby prep race isn’t the only reason to like Catching Freedom. The colt also won his career debut at Churchill Downs by 3.75 lengths in October 2023, and trainer Brad Cox won the 2021 Kentucky Derby with Mandaloun. Catching Freedom has three wins in five career starts.

Just a Touch (22-1)

With impressive positional speed, Just the Touch is a true contender to win the Derby. He looked very strong in his two recent runner-up finishes at the Gotham and the Blue Grass Stakes.

Just the Touch has a very distinguished pedigree, as his sire Justify won the Triple Crown and was named Horse of the Year in 2018. Many bettors will be buying into the solid outright odds here.

Kentucky Derby 2024: Best sleepers

Honor Marie (26-1)

Honor Marie has speed, stamina, pedigree, and plenty of experience at Churchill Downs. He finished second in his last start at the Louisiana Derby, and has two career wins and a second in three starts at Churchill. 

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Honor Marie’s rise to stardom has been thanks in large part to trainer and Louisville product, Whit Beckman, the former assistant to racing legends Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown. Don’t be surprised if Honor Marie keeps pace and explodes into a first-place finish at the Derby.

Mystik Dan (35-1)

A strong galloper, Mystik Dan recently enjoyed a breakout win by eight lengths at a muddy Southwest Stakes, a 1-and-1/16-mile Kentucky Derby prep. Mystik Dan has plenty of tactical speed and stamina, and won’t look back if he gets out to a lead.

Kentucky Derby 2024: Highest-value long shot

Resilience (76-1)

Resilience demonstrated his value as a Kentucky Derby sleeper with his April 6 win at the Grade II Wood Memorial Stakes, a 1-and-1/6-mile Derby prep race. Eleven horses that have won the Wood Memorial have also won the Kentucky Derby.

Resilience also has solid training and pedigree. He’s trained by reigning Outstanding Trainer William Mott, who won the 2019 Kentucky Derby with Country House. He was also sired by Into Mischief, a former Grade I winner and the sire of Kentucky Derby winners Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021). Resilience makes for a fine long shot pick. 

What is the best pole position in horse racing?

As Sporting News’ Edward Sutelan wrote ahead of the 2023 Kentucky Derby, “there is no right answer for the best pole position. The locations have different advantages and disadvantages based on the horses and the races.”

That said, the horses drawing the lower post numbers have typically performed the best. The most winners have come from the No. 5 gate, while nine have come from No. 10 and No. 8 and eight have come each from No. 1 and No. 7. After the 10th gate, No. 15 has been the only double-digit with more than five wins.

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Here is the history of how many winners came from each post position since the starting game was opened in 1930:

Post
position
Total Kentucky
Derby winners
1 8
2 7
3 5
4 5
5 10
6 2
7 8
8 9
9 4
10 9
11 2
12 3
13 5
14 2
15 6
16 4
17 0
18 2
19 1
20 2

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