Champions League semifinal: Dortmund vs PSG prediction, odds, stats, best bets for first leg in Germany

One of this year’s Champions League semifinals presents a group stage rematch as PSG travel to the Rhineland for the first leg of their matchup against German side Borussia Dortmund.

These two sides finished top two of this year’s Group of Death, beating AC Milan and Newcastle to the pair of qualifying positions. It was a difficult prospect that went right to the end, with final-day results going a long way towards determining the final standings.

They now meet again in the semifinals, as both look to secure a place in the Champions League final at Wembley on June 1, knowing a date with either Real Madrid or Bayern Munich looms for the victor.

PSG have already secured the Ligue 1 title and are still in play for a quadruple, while Dortmund cannot finish lower than fifth in the Bundesliga table, which is likely enough to secure a spot in this competition next season. Thus, both clubs will be prioritising Europe the rest of the way, meaning they will throw everything they have at these two games.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Dortmund vs PSG and bet Champions League matches

Dortmund vs PSG odds

PSG are slight road favourites for this Champions League semifinal, but the betting market believes Borussia Dortmund hold a solid chance to come away with a win in front of the Yellow Wall.

Dortmund have been excellent at home in Europe over the last few years, with just three defeats in 22 home matches since the start of the 2019/20 season, including a draw against PSG earlier this year and a first-leg win over the French giants back in the 2019/20 Round of 16.

Neither side comes into this match off the back of a league win, as PSG drew with Le Havre 3-3 and Dortmund were clobbered by RB Leipzig 4-1. While both sides rotated the squad to some extent, they still deployed first-choice players in large part, so form is not on the side of either club.

Dortmund win +175
Draw +270
PSG win +138
Both teams
to score
Y: -225
N: +155
Over / Under
3.5 goals
O: +120
U: -165
to advance
to advance

Dortmund vs PSG prediction

  • Moneyline lean: Draw (+270)
  • Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 PSG

Neither club has been the model of consistency this season, so there’s reason to believe this match will end all square and leave the second leg to determine the final participant. Dortmund are this year’s “don’t look at their domestic results” side in Europe, as they’ve won just one of their last four Bundesliga games but continue to put in solid performances in the Champions League. Last year, that team was AC Milan, and they reached the semifinals before a fellow Italian side finally took them down in Inter.

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PSG, meanwhile, were held by relegation candidates Le Havre on the weekend, failing with the chance to mathematically secure the Ligue 1 title, although they back-doored their way into the trophy thanks to other results on the weekend. They have, however, been quite comfortable in other recent domestic results, plus splitting victories with Barcelona in the previous Champions League round.

Both sides will be motivated to bring a lead back with them to Paris, and both sides could theoretically come away successfully in such an endeavor, and thus we split the difference with the best value.

Dortmund vs PSG match facts

  • Date: Wednesday, May 1, 2024
  • Kickoff time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund, Germany)
  • Referee: Anthony Taylor (ENG), VAR: Stuart Attwell (ENG)
  • Last meeting: Borussia Dortmund 1-1 PSG (Dec. 13, 2023 | Champions League)

Dortmund vs PSG key stats

  • PSG failed to win any of their three Champions League group stage matches this season, but have won both road knockout stage games since, each in Spain, with a 2-1 victory at Real Sociedad and 4-1 win at Barcelona.
  • Nobody has more assists in the Champions League this season than Marcel Sabitzer of Borussia Dortmund, whose five contributions are level with Vinicius Jr and one more than Jude Bellingham, Ilkay Gundogan, and Bukayo Saka.
  • Borussia Dortmund have not lost at home in Champions League play since a group stage defeat to Ajax in November 2021, a run of 10 unbeaten with six wins and four draws in that span, including the 1-1 scoreline against PSG at Signal Iduna Park last fall.

Dortmund vs PSG team news

Borussia Dortmund are still without Sebastien Haller who has had a stop-start season with injuries and remains sidelined for another few weeks. They are sweating the fitness of Donyell Malen who returned to training on Monday but still has doubts around his availability for this match. Defender Mats Hummels was withdrawn early in the second half of their match on the weekend but is expected to pass fit, while Chelsea loanee Ian Maatsen is also likely to return after his injury against Bayer Leverkusen the previous weekend.

PSG have nearly all their first-choice players fully fit and available for selection in this match. Backup goalkeeper Sergio Rico is out for the season after his horseback riding accident earlier this year, and Presnel Kimpembe remains sidelined with an Achilles tendon injury, but otherwise only a back injury to Layvin Kurzawa presents any kind of issue. Head coach Luis Enrique managed to secure some kind of rest for most of his first-team players over the weekend, with only midfielders Warren Zaire-Emery and Vitinha and full-back Achraf Hakimi logging a full 90 minutes.

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Dortmund vs PSG best bet

  • Pick: Over 3.5 total goals
  • Odds: +125 (BetMGM)
  • Pick: Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 goals
  • Odds: +100 (BetMGM)

PSG can score in bunches but also cannot stop their opponents — the French giants conceded three to Le Havre over the weekend as fill-in goalkeeper Keylor Navas was poor, and they have just three clean sheets in 13 matches across all competitions since the start of March, and none in the Champions League on the road this season.

In fact, PSG haven’t kept a road clean sheet in Europe in almost four years, dating back to their first Champions League group stage game of the 2020/21 tournament against Turkish side Istanbul Basaksehir. That’s a run of 18 straight games in which they’ve conceded a total of 30 goals to host opposition.

Dortmund, meanwhile, play a similar style this season across all competitions. In BVB’s 19 matches in 2024, a total of 55 goals have been scored, an average of 2.9 goals per game. At home, that number balloons to 3.4, as they’ve played to some wild finishes at Signal Iduna Park. They themselves have reached the two-goal total all but two of their 2024 home games, with the 1-1 draw against destiny’s team Bayer Leverkusen and a 1-0 loss to third-placed Stuttgart the only outliers.

Dortmund vs PSG goal scorer bet

  • Pick: Niclas Fullkrug anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +175 (BetMGM)
  • Pick: Niclas Fullkrug 2+ shots on target
  • Odds: +150 (FanDuel)
  • Pick: Ousmane Dembele anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +320 (BetMGM)

With Sebastien Haller shelved for much of the season due to injury, Niclas Fullkrug had an excellent first half of the campaign, but has faded a bit since the start of March. Yet he’s showed signs of roaring back to life, having struggled through a dry spell of poor finishing.

Meanwhile, it took nearly the entire season, but Ousmane Dembele finally found his shooting boots for PSG and is rifling in goals over the past month. Dembele had just one Ligue 1 goal through his first 23 games with the French giants on 4.56 xG, but struck for a brace against Lorient two weekends ago and found the net twice in the Champions League quarterfinals against his former club Barcelona as well.

After bagging a goal in the first leg of the quarters, we backed him to score in the second leg as well, and he indeed found the net with one of his whopping five shots throughout the match. He has eight shots in his last three league games plus 10 in his last two in Europe, and will again be a major player here on the road.

Dortmund vs PSG flier bet

  • Pick: Niclas Fullkrug to score a headed goal
  • Odds: +750 (FanDuel)
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Fullkrug found the net against Bayer Leverkusen, an impressive prospect in and of itself, and scored a critical goal against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals at home as well. He came up empty in the heavy defeat to RB Leipzig last weekend, but was still a massive presence, failing to hit the target on three glorious headed efforts worth a massive 1.41 xG combined.

Still, his threat speaks for itself — 25 of Fullkrug’s 58 shots in the Bundesliga this season have come off his head, and PSG have conceded eight headed goals this season in Ligue 1, representing a whopping 28% of their total concessions, a higher mark than any other club. Fullkrug didn’t have a shot against PSG in the home group stage meeting this season, but on the road in France he came off the bench to register two headed chances in the final 10 minutes of the game.

Headed chances are difficult, as evident by Fullkrug’s mark of just three headed goals this season, a quarter of his haul, despite nearly half of his efforts coming on headers. He holds a -3.28 xG differential on those chances, which is typical for such a high volume. Still, his threat plus PSG’s vulnerability makes this a high-quality selection.

Dortmund vs PSG live stream, TV channel

In the United States, this Champions League semifinal first leg will be televised in English on CBS, with streaming available on Paramount+, as every match of the competition from the group stage on has been. There is a Spanish-language broadcast available on TUDN.

Both U.S. television broadcasts in English and Spanish can be streamed on Fubo, who are offering a free trial for new users.

In the UK, the match will be televised on TNT Sports 1, with streaming on the broadcaster’s dedicated platform discovery+.

Meanwhile, in Canada, the exclusive streaming partner of the UEFA Champions League is DAZN, where every game across the competition can be watched live.


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