Champions League semifinal prediction: Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid odds, stats, betting tips for first leg

Both boasting victories over English giants in the previous round, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich clash in the semifinals, with the first leg to be contested at Allianz Arena in Bavaria on Tuesday.

Los Blancos weathered a considerable storm in the second leg against Manchester City but held firm, securing a 1-1 draw before emerging victorious in a penalty shootout, their annual European magic alive and well.

Bayern, meanwhile, put forth an impressive 1-0 victory against Premier League title challengers Arsenal which has given the German side hope of brushing aside the loss of their Bundesliga chokehold domestically.

There are expectations on the shoulders of both these clubs, as whoever emerges from this matchup with a spot in the final will likely bear the weight of the favourites mark in the final against either PSG or Borussia Dortmund. Storylines could be oozing from such a game regardless of who makes it through, and neutrals will be salivating at the prospect of seeing these two European blue bloods battle once again for the game’s most coveted club trophy.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid and bet UCL matches

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid odds

The bookmakers have given Bayern Munich a slight nod for home field advantage, but in the days leading up to kickoff, this match has been dubbed too close to call, as both sides sport plus moneyline odds of similar size. However, as the start of the match neared, the late line movement was in favour of the home side, with Bayern sliding down near even-money and Real Madrid ballooning up near or over 2/1.

It is expected that goals will be scored in this game, as both teams are given a strong chance to find the net and the total is swung significantly towards the over.

With 42 goals on the season, a personal best in his career, Harry Kane is thought most likely to find the net of any player on the field, given +110 odds to score. Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham are next on the list, both at +160, while Real Madrid’s top goal scorer in this competition, Rodrygo, sits way back at +280.

  BetMGM
(USA)
Bayern win +120
Draw +260
Real Madrid win +200
Both teams
to score
Y: -200
N: +140
Over / Under
2.5 goals
O: -175
U: +125
Bayern Munich
to advance
+130
Real Madrid
to advance
-175

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid prediction

  • Moneyline lean: Draw (+260)
  • Score prediction: Bayern Munich 2-2 Real Madrid

There’s very little to separate these sides. Real Madrid have won three straight European matches at Allianz Arena, but they will be up against a resurgent Bayern who have figured out a Champions League formula now that the Bundesliga title fight is gone for good.

With Thomas Tuchel set to depart, it suddenly feels as if Bayern are playing with more freedom, as if they have very little to lose. That will present Madrid with a tenacious opponent, and while their European black magic presents a consistent threat, it’s hard to see the visitors flying home with a full first-leg victory to cling to.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid match facts

  • Date: Tuesday, April 30, 2024
  • Kickoff time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Allianz Arena (Munich, Germany)
  • Referee: Clement Turpin (FRA), VAR: Jerome Brisard (FRA)
  • Last meeting: Real Madrid 2-2 Bayern Munich (May 1, 2018 | Champions League)

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid key stats

  • These two teams have met seven previous times in a European semifinal, with Bayern Munich progressing in four of the first five meetings, while Real Madrid advanced in each of the last two. This is the most-played fixture in the history of the European Cup/Champions League (26 games, 24 in the knockout stage).
  • Harry Kane has 10 goal involvements in Champions League play this season, tied for the most ever by an English international in this competition (David Beckham 1998/99, Steven Gerrard 2007/08). He has never scored against Real Madrid, coming up empty in two attempts back in the 2017/18 season with Tottenham.
  • Real Madrid have won three consecutive away games against Bayern Munich, more than any other club in history. No team ever in this competition has even won consecutive away matches at Bayern, let alone three.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid team news

There are a few issues for Bayern Munich head coach Thomas Tuchel to consider here. Defender Matthijs de Ligt and Dayot Upamecano are both struggling for fitness but have not been fully ruled out by the boss, but it seems likely that Jamal Musiala and Leroy Sane will shake off knocks and prove fit for duty. Konrad Laimer is another doubt with an ankle injury, while Kingsley Coman is the only confirmed absentee as the French international could miss out on this summer’s European Championship due to a groin injury.

The only absence for Carlo Ancelotti to work around is the suspension of Dani Carvajal who picked up his third booking on record in the second leg against Manchester City and will have to sit out this trip to Munich. It’s a big loss for Real Madrid considering their lack of full-back depth, forcing the inexperienced Fran Garcia into action. Right-back Ferland Mendy was held out of the weekend’s match with a muscle strain, but it’s expected he will pass fit for action in this game. Otherwise, every Real Madrid player is fully fit for selection, other than the long-term absence of defender David Alaba, shelved for the season with serious knee injuries. Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois will return to the squad but is unlikely to start.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid best bet

  • Pick: Over 3.0 total goals
  • Odds: +100 (DraftKings)

When these two teams meet in the Champions League, sparks are almost guaranteed to fly. Three or more goals have been scored between these sides in nine of the last 10 meetings between the two, with the only game falling under the total being a 1-0 Real Madrid home win back in 2014.

Gone are the days of the cagey first leg in European knockout meetings, as the scrapping of the away goals rule has been a smashing success. You can safely take the over 2.5 goal total as part of a parlay, but at -185 odds, it presents little value as a straight selection, so bumping to the next half-goal provides solid plus-money odds with a safety net of the push.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid goal scorer bet

  • Pick: Rodrygo anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +270 (BetMGM)
  • Pick: Serge Gnabry anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +300 (BetMGM)

Both sides have goal scorers which present big value. For Real Madrid, Brazilian striker Rodrygo flies largely under the radar compared to the star power of Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham, but sits as the club’s top goal scorer in Champions League play this season, and has more career Champions League goals than either of his aforementioned teammates. The 23-year-old has scored in five Champions League games this season, including both legs against Man City in the previous round, and was rested on the weekend.

Meanwhile, for Bayern Munich, Thomas Tuchel has publicly backed Serge Gnabry to score in this match, which is a wild thing for a manager to do ahead of a Champions League semifinal. It’s been a stop-start season for Gnabry thanks to injuries, but he has been prolific when fit for action, scoring in three of his last four Bundesliga appearances while also scoring against Arsenal in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal.

This is unprecedented territory to have the manager of a major European club double down with a prediction of a player to score a goal in a particular match, and we love a good narrative — go ahead and back the chaos. What’s more, is that Gnabry will likely be deployed on the left wing, set to go up against Fran Garcia with Dani Carvajal suspended.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid prop bet

  • Pick: Bayern Munich 17+ total shots
  • Odds: +110 (FanDuel)

This season, Real Madrid have mastered conceding possession and pressure to the opposition but not allowing them to piece together quality chances. Real Madrid conceded an incredible 33 shots to Man City in the second leg of their quarterfinal, but that glutton of chances was worth just 2.74 xG, or 0.083 xG per shot, which is a minuscule total — or all their overwhelming onslaught of pressure, City only cobbled together three opportunities labeled as “big chances” by Opta.

Similarly, they were battered by Barcelona for 15 shots, but those were worth just 1.37 xG, or 0.091 xG per shot, another a small figure, and they put together 14 of their own efforts worth a much more impressive 2.34 xG.

Bayern should play right into this tactic — they lead the Bundesliga in shots by an overwhelming figure, with 611 total efforts, 50 more than any other club. While they are fourth in the Champions League in that category behind Man City, Real Madrid, and PSG, that is largely affected by a wonky few group stage games, as they are second behind only the eliminated Man City in the knockout stage, averaging 16 efforts per game. They even out-shot Arsenal in the second leg of their quarterfinal 15-8 despite the Gunners chasing a goal for the final third of the match.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid live stream, TV channel

  TV channel Streaming
USA CBS, TUDN, Univision Paramount+,
TUDN App, ViX, Univision NOW, Fubo
Canada  — DAZN
UK TNT Sports 1 discovery+

In the United States, this Champions League semifinal first leg will be televised in English on CBS, with streaming available on Paramount+, as every match of the competition from the group stage on has been. There is a Spanish-language broadcast available on TUDN.

Both U.S. television broadcasts in English and Spanish can be streamed on Fubo, who are offering a free trial for new users.

In the UK, the match will be televised on TNT Sports 1, with streaming on the broadcaster’s dedicated platform discovery+.

Meanwhile, in Canada, the exclusive streaming partner of the UEFA Champions League is DAZN, where every game across the competition can be watched live.

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